JPMorgan Econ FI-Oil Demand Tracker Global flight activity surpasses pre-pand...-107667910

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Global Commodities Research

17 April 2024

JPMORGAN

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Global Commodities Research

Prateek Kedia AC

(1-646) 326 1124

prateek.kedia@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Natasha Kaneva

(1-212) 834-3175

natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Cole Wolf

(1-212) 622-5762

cole.wolf@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

•Our high-frequency demand indicators estimate that worldwide oil

consumption so far in April averaged 101.0 mbd, 200 kbd below our published

estimates (Figure 1). On a year-over-year basis, demand growth in April is

tracking at 1.46 mbd against our expectations of a 1.7 mbd increase. From the

start of the year, global oil demand rose by 1.7 mbd compared to the same

period last year. Our projections from last November called for a 2.0 mbd

improvement.

•Diesel cracks in the US and Europe fell 4-6% week-over-week for the week

ending April 16 tracking softer US and European demand despite lower diesel

and gasoil exports out of Russia, China, and India (Figure 6 & 7). Russian

diesel/gasoil exports fell 250 kbd week-over-week. Moreover, the Dangote

refinery in Nigeria began supplying diesel to domestic market easing reliance

on imports. Meanwhile, US gasoline cracks rose 8% over the same period as

gasoline stocks in the US continue to decline.

•Regionally, France, Thailand, and Australia reported consumption statistics.

•In Europe, France reported an 83 kbd YoY drop in its total oil consumption for

March. Road-diesel use declined 72 kbd YoY following the shift away from

diesel-powered vehicles towards gasoline and electric vehicles. Jet fuel

consumption remained largely unchanged at 86% of pre-Covid levels.

Europe’s oil demand tracker estimates April consumption at 13.9 mbd, 100 kbd

below our published estimates (Figure 4). Germany’s truck toll mileage

contracted year-over-year in the first week of April (Figure 21).

•Our US gasoline demand tracker estimates that consumption averaged 8.6 mbd

over the past week, 300 kbd below our April estimates (Figure 2). This was

in-line with the EIA’s US gasoline demand estimate of 8.6 mbd. On a four-week

rolling average basis, US gasoline demand eased to 8.8 mbd, a five-week low.

•China oil demand is tracking 16.4 mbd so far in April, 100 kbd below our

estimates for the moth (Figure 5). High frequency indicators suggest demand

is resilient. Trucks on Chinese expressways rose to a 2024-high of 54.5 million

(Figure 16). Chinese gasoline stocks declined to their lowest levels in 2024

while diesel stocks eased for a fifth week in a row (Figure 18 & 19)

•Thailand’s total oil demand contracted 30 kbd YoY in February driven by

lower diesel consumption. On the other hand, jet fuel demand improved to 79%

of 2019 levels as tourism activity drives growth.

•Australia reported a 44 kbd YoY increase in its total oil demand for February.

The expansion was broad-based with all major products such as gasoline,

diesel, jet fuel, and LPG reporting increased consumption.

•Global flight activity surpassed 2019 volumes for the first time since the

pandemic averaging 100.2% of 2019 volumes. US flight activity improved to

a seven-week high of 96.2% and European flight activity surged to a 14-week

high of 98.2% of their respective 2019 volumes. Chinese flight activity

improved week-over-week to 105.3% of pre-pandemic levels supported by

See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

Oil Demand Tracker

Global flight activity surpasses pre-pandemic levels for

the first time ever

Prateek Kedia

(1-646) 326 1124

prateek.kedia@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175

natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762

cole.wolf@jpmchase.com

Global Commodities Research

Oil Demand Tracker

17 April 2024

JPMORGAN

rising domestic and international travel.

Figure 1: Global total oil demand 100 kbd above the expectations in March

mbd

101

103

105

107

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Global demand tracker Realized Estimate

Source: Woodmac, EIA, IEA, Rystad, Kpler, IIR, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 2: US gasoline demand tracks 8.6 mbd in April...

mbd

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

US demand tracker Realised Estimate

Source: Woodmac, EIA, IEA, Rystad, Kpler, IIR, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 3: ...but total US oil demand above our April estimates

mbd

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

US demand tracker Realised Estimate

Source: Woodmac, EIA, IEA, Rystad, Kpler, IIR, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Prateek Kedia

(1-646) 326 1124

prateek.kedia@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175

natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

Cole Wolf (1-212) 622-5762

cole.wolf@jpmchase.com

Global Commodities Research

17 April 2024

JPMORGAN

Figure 4: Europe total oil demand nascent recovery falters in the first week

of April

mbd

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Europe demand tracker Realised Estimate

Source: Woodmac, EIA, IEA, Rystad, Kpler, IIR, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 5: China total oil demand in April close to our published estimates

mbd

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

China demand tracker Realised Estimate

Source: Woodmac, EIA, IEA, Rystad, Kpler, IIR, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 6: China’s weekly diesel/gasoil exports

kbd

100

200

300

400

500

600

1-Jan

8-Jan

15-Jan

22-Jan

29-Jan

5-Feb

12-Feb

19-Feb

26-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Apr

8-Apr

Source: Kpler

Figure 7: India’s weekly diesel/gasoil exports

kbd

200

400

600

800

1000

1-Jan

8-Jan

15-Jan

22-Jan

29-Jan

5-Feb

12-Feb

19-Feb

26-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Apr

8-Apr

Source: Kpler

Figure 8: US PADD 3 gasoline exports to Mexico

kbd

100

200

300

400

500

1-Jan

8-Jan

15-Jan

22-Jan

29-Jan

5-Feb

12-Feb

19-Feb

26-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Apr

8-Apr

Source: Kpler

Figure 9: US PADD 3 gasoline stocks

milion barrels

100

5-year range 5 year avg 2022

2023 2024

Source: EIA

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GlobalCommoditiesResearch17April2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comGlobalCommoditiesResearchPrateekKediaAC(1-646)3261124prateek.kedia@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCNatashaKaneva(1-212)834-3175natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAColeWolf(1-212)622-5762cole.wolf@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSe...

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