Morgan Stanley Fixed-China Economics Export-driven Growth Continues-108130071
免费
M
China Economics | Asia Pacific
Export-driven Growth
Continues
Imports mix points to stable domestic demand and ongoing
recovery in global trade. Export growth bounced off March
trough and is set to rise further from May, in our view, sustaining
export-driven growth.
Zhipeng Cai
!"#$""%& '()***+,-.(*/
Robin Xing
!0!"
12 3#$""%& '()**(4(-5)66
Jenny Zheng, CFA
7& #$""%& '()*+,5+-4/6)
Harry Zhao
8"$$& "#$""%& '()***+,-.**,
Exhibit 1 : 9$::$;<%=><
0$"&"=%;$2"
100
150
200
250
300
350
Apr-17
Aug-17
Dec-17
Apr-18
Aug-18
Dec-18
Apr-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Apr-20
Aug-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
Dec-21
Apr-22
Aug-22
Dec-22
Apr-23
Aug-23
Dec-23
Apr-24
USD bn China Monthly Export Value, Seasonally Adjusted
sharp decline in
comparison base
to support YoY
from May to July
Source: China Customs, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 2 : <9$0$$
$
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Exports of Motor Vehicles, seasonally adjusted, US$ mn
Source: China Customs, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 3 : "2%?=@"=;"0A
=="=B $B%2"%$"=
25
30
35
40
45
50
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
China Import Value (USD bn), seasonally adjusted
Ordinary Processing
Source: China Customs, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research
Nominal export growth rebounded as
expected to 1.5%Y (consensus: 1.3%) from -7.5% in March. While seasonally adjusted
MoM growth softened to -0.5%, exports level remained elevated after five
consecutive months of sequential improvement ( Exhibit 1 ). By product, the
resilience was supported by continued strength in autos (8%M) and ships (5%M),
while consumer electronics shipment value also jumped by 5%. In contrast, labor-
intensive consumer goods contracted at -3%M after improving in 4Q23-1Q24.
! Nominal import growth
jumped to 8.4% (vs. -1.9% in March), while seasonally adjusted MoM growth also
rebounded to 0.5% (vs. -0.5% in March). The improvement was driven by electronic
integrated circuits (3%M vs. -1.5% in March) amid the global tech upcycle. Within
commodities, iron ore imports weakened further with sequentially contracting
volume and lower prices, reflecting weak construction demand, while crude oil
imports were stable as volume declined amid higher prices. All in all, the April
reading does not alter the broad trend of stabilized (and somewhat soft) domestic
demand vs. improving global trade ( Exhibit 3 ).
"## Export growth should jump from May
to July to 7-9% (in line with regional economies) from 1.5% YTD, due to a lower
comparison base. Sequentially, we expect export momentum to remain resilient on
the back of green products and capital goods, with the latter supported in the near-
term by global supply chain derisking. We maintain our view that growth has
stabilized, although deflation could persist amid supply-centric policy. For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,
located at the end of this report.
Key Takeaways
Exports were stable in April, with YoY growth on par with 1Q (both 1.5%Y),
thanks to resilient external demand.
Auto and ship exports remained strong, while consumer electronics picked up. In
contrast, labor-intensive consumer goods slowed after improving in 4Q23-1Q24.
Export YoY growth should rise meaningfully in May-July to 7-9% amid lower base.
Nominal import growth surprised on the upside, led by: (1) integrated circuit amid
global tech cycle, and (2) higher import prices for coal, oil, and copper.
We think imports data suggests that domestic demand in April was stable, as the
headline growth was partly driven by tech processing trade.
May 9, 2024 06:24 AM GMT
M
2
More Exhibits
Exhibit 4: 9$CD$C"=E$"=F"%"
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
%, YoY
USD bn Trade Balance (lhs) Export (rhs) Import (rhs)
<$GH$"%=$"0!<C$""%&1"$
Exhibit 5: 9$H$;2&I$=<
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Select Commodities
Select Labor Intensive Industries
Automatic Data Processing Machine
Motor Vehicle
Export YoY% 3MMA
<$GH$"%=$"0!<C$""%&1"$
Exhibit 6: J$="$&B I$D$H$;
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Ordinary Import
Processing Import
%YoY
<$GH$"%=$"0!<C$""%&1"$
Exhibit 7: D$K"%<H$;2&I$=<
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Agriculture Product
Energy
Primary and Intermediate Input
Mechanical and Electrical Product
Imports by Selected Products YoY% 3MMA
<$GH$"%=$"0!<C$""%&1"$
Exhibit 8: !=&D$K%<H$;
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Apr-24
Iron Ore & Concentrate
Crude Petroleum Oil
Steel Product
Unwrought Copper and Copper Product
Soybean
Import Volume Growth (YoY% 3MMA)
<$GH$"%=$"0!<C$""%&1"$
Exhibit 9: L-!=&D$K%<H$;
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23 Apr-24
Motor Vehicle
Electronic Integrated Circuit
Import Volume Growth (YoY% 3MMA)
<$GH$"%=$"0!<C$""%&1"$
摘要：
展开>>
收起<<
MMM M M M M !"#$ "...
相关推荐
-
Morgan Stanley-US Banks How Willing Is Your Bank to Pay Up for Deposits M...-106552537免费
2024-03-02 95 -
Morgan Stanley-US Banks and Consumer Finance Dollars and Cents-106579284免费
2024-03-02 90 -
Morgan Stanley-Uber Technologies Inc 5 Keys To Next Weeks Analyst Update-106410534免费
2024-03-02 92 -
Morgan Stanley-Thematics Venture Vision Lets Put $7 Trillion in Perspect...-106509684免费
2024-03-02 92 -
Morgan Stanley-Thematics Venture Vision IPOs #2 – What Next-106373102免费
2024-03-02 94 -
Morgan Stanley-Thematics AI Adopters Are Adopting-106471392免费
2024-03-02 89 -
Morgan Stanley-The Week Ahead - Asia Pacific Summarising Earnings and Data...-106448915免费
2024-03-02 91 -
Morgan Stanley-China Financials Policy shift has paid off earlier than exp...-107899136免费
2024-05-16 91 -
Morgan Stanley Fixed-Asia Economics The Viewpoint 亚洲经济研究：观点 中国和日本——两个消费者的故事-109367989VIP专享
2024-08-07 91 -
Morgan Stanley Fixed-Investor Presentation LDP Election Candidate Who’s Who 自...-109946937VIP专享
2024-09-09 94
作者：满江红
分类：外资研报
价格：免费
属性：6 页
大小：566.36KB
格式：PDF
时间：2024-05-24
