国际能源署-管理电力需求和供应的季节变化（英）-2024.4-94页

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Managing the Seasonal

Variability of Electricity

Demand and Supply

The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy

issues including oil, gas and coal supply and

demand, renewable energy technologies,

electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to

energy, demand side management and much

more. Through its work, the IEA advocates

policies that will enhance the reliability,

affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31

member countries, 13 association countries and

beyond.

This publication and any map included herein are

without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty

over any territory, to the delimitation of

international frontiers and boundaries and to the

name of any territory, city or area.

Source: IEA.

International Energy Agency

Website: www.iea.org

IEA member countries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Republic

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Republic of Türkiye

United Kingdom

United States

The European Commission

also participates in the work

of the IEA

IEA association countries:

Argentina

Brazil

China

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Kenya

Morocco

Senegal

Singapore

South Africa

Thailand

Ukraine

Managing the Seasonal Variability of Electricity Demand and Supply

PAGE | 3

Abstract

Electrification of end-uses and the growth of solar and wind is

changing how electricity systems operate on all time scales. This

report analyses how seasonal variations in both demand and supply

affect electricity system operations to 2050 – in Europe, India,

Indonesia and Korea – and what sources will be used to manage

them. Seasonal variations are put in context with the annual

electricity mix and short-term (hourly) variability. Each of the analysed

regions has a unique electricity mix today, available resources,

geographies, and patterns of electricity demand. Each has charted a

different course for their clean energy transitions and is located in

different climatic zones. This study also recognises that weather

conditions are uncertain and vary from year-to-year, exploring their

impact on system operations and power system costs. The study

finds that, in each system, both short-term and seasonal flexibility

needs rise considerably to 2050. Flexibility, currently provided by

thermal power plants and hydro, will increasingly come from new

sources – demand response and batteries on shorter timescales and

hydrogen across weeks to seasons – with low emissions thermal

power plants and hydro remaining important providers of seasonal

balancing. As the systems become more capital-intensive,

consumers are increasingly insulated from the impact of weather

variations on power plant operations and the volatility of fossil fuel

prices.

This work expands on the report Managing Seasonal and Interannual

Variability, published in April 2023 which assesses the impact of

weather-related variability on system operations across seasons and

between years in different climatic zones.

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摘要：

ManagingtheSeasonalVariabilityofElectricityDemandandSupplyTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenh...

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