【ADB】Balancing the Needs of Energy Security Economic Growth and Climate Sustainability in ASEAN

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ADBI Working Paper Series

BALANCING THE NEEDS OF ENERGY

SECURITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND

CLIMATE SUSTAINABILITY IN ASEAN

Rika Safrina

No. 1444

April 2024

Asian Development Bank Institute

The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series;

the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI’s working

papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. Some working

papers may develop into other forms of publication.

Suggested citation:

Safrina, R. 2024. Balancing the Needs of Energy Security, Economic Growth, and Climate

Sustainability in ASEAN. ADBI Working Paper 1444. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank

Institute. Available: https://doi.org/10.56506/UUXJ7947

Please contact the authors for information about this paper.

Email: rsafrina@aseanenergy.org

Rika Safrina is a Senior Analyst of Energy Modeling and Policy Planning, ASEAN Centre

for Energy (ACE).

The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily

reflect the views or policies of ADBI, ADB, its Board of Directors, or the governments

they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper

and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may

not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

Discussion papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized

and considered published.

Asian Development Bank Institute

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ADBI Working Paper 1444 R. Safrina

Abstract

This paper provides an integrative review of the energy landscape and cross-sectoral

energy-related policies in the ASEAN Member States (AMSs) in balancing the needs of

energy security, economic growth, and climate sustainability. To achieve this broad objective,

the paper aims to investigate the changing structure of the economy by comparing it with

the changing trends of energy sources in ASEAN. The analysis will use the historical data

from 2005 to 2020 and the projection data from 2021 to 2050 from the 7th ASEAN Energy

Outlook. This will reveal insights into whether, and if so how, net-zero emissions will be

realized in ASEAN by or around the middle of the century. Given the important role of

governments, we argue that a comprehensive review of national energy policies stated in

official documents within the region is also essential to investigate the capability of AMSs

to accelerate energy transition while securing energy supply. These official publications

represent the voice of regime actors. Providing a novel contribution to the research, the

second aim of the paper is to assess national policies in ASEAN related to energy transition

away from coal, using horizontal integrated policy analysis. This will exhibit the ASEAN

policymakers’ perspective on how to accelerate energy transition while securing economic

structural transformation. Structural transformation and the energy trilemma are the

theoretical frameworks that motivate this study. It was found that coal will still be an

important fuel in the ASEAN energy mix by 2050, making it challenging for the region to

entirely phase out coal and achieve the decarbonization target. The region could stabilize its

baseload renewable energy, such as hydro, geothermal, and bioenergy, while increasing its

variable renewables intake through enhancing grid infrastructure, interconnection, and rural

off-grid systems. A collaborative approach among cross-sectoral policymakers and support

from the international community, especially in financing climate change mitigation, will be

crucial for the region to balance its energy security, economic growth, and environmental

sustainability.

Keywords: structural transformation, energy trilemma, energy security, economic growth,

climate sustainability

JEL Classification: Q48

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ADBIWorkingPaperSeriesBALANCINGTHENEEDSOFENERGYSECURITY,ECONOMICGROWTH,ANDCLIMATESUSTAINABILITYINASEANRikaSafrinaNo.1444April2024AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteTheWorkingPaperseriesisacontinuationoftheformerlynamedDiscussionPaperseries;thenumberingofthepaperscontinuedwithoutinterruptionorchange.ADBI’s...

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