海通国际证券-公用事业行业周报：火电不是简单高股息，而是周期底部向上

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[Table_MainInfo]

行业研究/公用事业

证券研究报告

行业周报

2024 年06 月17 日

火电不是简单高股息，而是周期底部向上

[Table_Summary]

投资要点：

 周五电力放量调整，火电业绩持续向上。本周五不少电力股：长江电力，中国

核电，华电国际，国投电力，川投能源等成交额明显放大，且大幅下跌；Wind

一致预期华电国际 2024E PE 11 倍，其他公司 2024E PE 16-21 倍。我们认为，从

5月社融和 M1 增速看，经济短期乐观的理由并不充分，在经济反复磨底的过程

中，盈利稳定的水电与公用事业化属性凸显的火电板块，投资价值凸显。另外

本周是华电国际调入沪深 300 的第一天，建议关注。

 5月现货市场交易：山西、山东、蒙西现货电价较上月上涨 16.4%、32.7%、22%，

广东下降 26%，但总体仍低于去年新历同期水平，主要还是目前负荷较低。1、

中电联：受近日南方降水拉动水电出力持续提升，部分火电机组已转停机检修

状态。2、山西 2024 年1-5 月日均用电负荷逐月下降，5月较 2023 年更高，2-4

月较 2023 年更低，预计 6月起，负荷逐渐上涨，形成夏季负荷高峰，价格也会

随之升高。

 迎峰度夏开启，电力负荷攀升，我们认为三季度电价上涨有望兑现。（1）河北

6月11 日迎来度夏第一轮 40 度高温天气，河北用电高峰最大负荷预计达到 4000

万千瓦，其中空调负荷同比增加 113%。（2）山东 6月相较 5月最高负荷增长

5.7%。（3）为应对高峰，深圳电网今年已建成投产 9座变电站，新增容量 260

万千伏安，是去年同期的 140%。（4）国家能源局表示，今年迎峰度夏期间，

全国电力供应总体有保障，内蒙古以及华东、华中、西南、南方区域的部分省

份高峰时段可能存在电力供应紧张的情况。

 美国：净负荷影响电能量价格，可再生能源是电价波动的主要原因。美国 6月

8日电价对比：（1）加州市场 CAISO 净负荷极大影响电价，负值净负荷和负电

价同时出现，下午 2:45 最低，为$-4.85/MWh。（2）得州 ERCOT 风电多光伏少，

净负荷未出现负值。但是 7:30~9:00 之间多次出现负电价， 8:00 最低为

-$0.99/MWh，原因是此时风电超过天然气，成为第一大电源，同时光伏出力快

速增加。（3）PJM 可再生能源发电比重低，净负荷曲线与负荷曲线接近，对电

价影响较小。

 电力龙头估值长期低位区间，24 年盈利上行可期。我们认为火电低盈利且低估

值，海外电力龙头 PE 普遍在 20 倍左右，值得看好。建议关注：火电弹性（浙

能电力、皖能电力、华电国际、华能国际、大唐发电、宝新能源）；火电转型

（华润电力，中国电力）；水火并济（国电电力，湖北能源，国投电力），煤

电一体化（内蒙华电）；新能源（三峡能源、龙源电力、中广核新能源、福能

股份、中闽能源、大唐新能源）；水电（长江电力、华能水电、川投能源、广

西能源，桂冠电力，黔源电力）；核电（中国核电，中国广核）；电网（三峡

水利、涪陵电力）。

 风险提示。（1）经济增速预期和货币政策导致市场风格波动较大。（2）电力

市场化方向确定，但发展时间难以确定。

行业研究·公用事业行业

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明

APPENDIX 1

Summary

Investment Highlights: Power sector saw volume increase and adjustments on Friday, with thermal power performance rising.

Major power stocks like China Yangtze Power, China National Nuclear Power, Huadian Power International, SDIC Power Holdings,

and Sichuan Chuantou Energy saw significant turnover and sharp declines. Wind consensus expectation for Huadian Power

International’s 2024E PE is 11x, while other companies’ 2024E PE ranges from 16x to 21x. Given the May social financing and M1

growth, short-term economic optimism is insufficient. During economic fluctuations, the stable earnings of hydropower and the

utility nature of thermal power highlight their investment value. This week marks Huadian Power International’s inclusion in the

CSI 300; it is worth noting. May spot market transactions: Shanxi, Shandong, and Western Inner Mongolia spot electricity prices

rose by 16.4%, 32.7%, and 22% respectively, while Guangdong fell by 26%, still below last year’s levels due to low current load. 1.

China Electricity Council: Recent southern rainfall boosted hydropower output, leading some thermal power units to shut down

for maintenance. 2. Shanxi’s daily average power load from January to May 2024 decreased monthly, with May higher than 2023,

but February to April lower than 2023. Load is expected to rise from June, peaking in summer, driving prices up. Peak summer

season begins, power load rises, and we expect electricity prices to increase in Q3. (1) Hebei faced its first 40°C heatwave on June

11, with peak power load expected to reach 40 million kW, and A/C load up 113% YoY. (2) Shandong’s peak load in June grew by

5.7% compared to May. (3) To meet peak demand, Shenzhen grid added 2.60 million kVA capacity with nine new substations,

140% of last year’s capacity. (4) National Energy Administration stated that national power supply is generally secure during peak

summer, but some provinces in Inner Mongolia, East China, Central China, Southwest, and South regions may face tight supply.

USA: Net load impacts energy prices, with renewable energy being the main cause of price fluctuations. June 8 electricity prices:

(1) California’s CAISO market saw net load significantly impact prices, with negative net load and prices appearing simultaneously,

hitting a low of $-4.85/MWh at 2:45 PM. (2) Texas’s ERCOT had more wind power and less PV, with no negative net load but

multiple negative prices between 7:30-9:00 AM, hitting a low of $-0.99/MWh at 8:00 AM due to wind power surpassing natural

gas as the primary source, while PV output increased rapidly. (3) PJM’s low renewable energy generation had minimal impact on

prices as net load closely followed the load curve. Leading power companies’ valuations remain low, with 2024 earnings expected

to rise. We believe thermal power’s low profitability and valuation, with overseas power leaders’ PE around 20x, are promising.

Watchlist: Thermal power flexibility (Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power, An Hui Wenergy Company, Huadian Power International,

Huaneng Power International, Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd, Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock); Thermal

power transformation (China Resources Power Holdings, China Power International Development); Combined hydro and thermal

(GD Power Development, Hubei Energy Group, SDIC Power Holdings); Integrated coal and power (Inner Mongolia Mengdian

Huaneng Thermal Power Corporation); New energy (China Three Gorges Renewables (Group), China Longyuan Power Group, CGN

New Energy Holdings, Fujian Funeng, Zhongmin Energy, China Datang Corporation Renewable Power); Hydropower (China

Yangtze Power, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower, Sichuan Chuantou Energy, Guangxi Energy Co.,Ltd., Guangxi Guiguan

Electric Power, Guizhou Qianyuan Power); Nuclear power (China National Nuclear Power, CGN Power); Grid (Chongqing Three

Gorges Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial).

Risk Warning: (1) Economic growth rate expectations and monetary policy lead to significant market style fluctuations. (2) While

the direction of power marketization is clear, the development timeline is uncertain.

[Table_disclaimer]

附录

APPENDIX

重要信息披露

本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司

(HTIRL)

，

Haitong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL)

，

Haitong International Japan K.K. (HTIJKK)

和海通国际证券有限公

司

(HTISCL)

的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团

(HTISG)

各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), Haitong Securities India Private

Limited (“HSIPL”), Haitong International Japan K.K. (“HTIJKK”), Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”), and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group

of Companies (“HTISG”), each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.

HTIRL

分析师认证

Analyst Certification

我，

吴杰，在此保证（

）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（

）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达

的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究

报告发布后的

个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。

I, Jie Wu, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of

the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed

in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household, whom I have

already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.

我，

傅逸帆，在此保证（

）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（

）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表

达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研

究报告发布后的

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I, Yifan Fu, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or

all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views

expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household,

whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published.

利益冲突披露

Conflict of Interest Disclosures

海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和

或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保

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ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com

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HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far

as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship (As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness, please send an

email to ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com if timely and comprehensive information is needed).

600023.CH,

香港华润

(

集团

)

有限公司上海代表处

及

中国三峡新能源（集团）股份有限公司目前或过去

个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。

600023.CH,

香港华润

(

集团

)

有限公司上海代表处

and

中国三峡新能源（集团）股份有限公司

are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months. The client has been provided

for non-investment-banking securities-related services.

海通在过去的

个月中从

600023.CH

及

中国三峡新能源（集团）股份有限公司获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。

Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 600023.CH and

中国三峡新能源（集团）股份有限公司

评级定义（从

2020

年

月

日开始执行）：

海通国际（以下简称

“HTI”

）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公

司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读

HTI

的评级定义。并且

HTI

发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情

况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应

基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。

分析师股票评级

优于大市

，未来

12-18

个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在

10%

以上，基准定义如

下

中性

，未来

12-18

个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据

FINRA/NYSE

的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。

弱于大市

，未来

12-18

个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在

10%

以上，基准定义如

下

各地股票基准指数：日本

– TOPIX,

韩国

– KOSPI,

台湾

– TAIEX,

印度

– Nifty100,

美

国

– SP500;

其他所有中国概念股

– MSCI China.

Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020):

Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,

Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to

评级分布

Rating Distribution

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摘要：

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/公用事业证券研究报告行业周报2024年06月17日火电不是简单高股息，而是周期底部向上[Table_Summary]投资要点：周五电力放量调整，火电业绩持续向上。本周五不少电力股：长江电力，中国核电，华电国际，国投电力，川投能源等成交额明显放大，且大幅下跌；Wind一致预期华电国际2024EPE11倍，其他公司2024EPE16-21倍。我们认为，从5月社融和M1增速看，经济短期乐观的理由并不充分，在经济反复磨底的过程中，盈利稳定的水电与公用事业化属性凸显的火电板块，投资价值凸显。另外本周是华电国际调入沪深300...

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