IEF-石油市场9月报的比较分析（英）-2023.9-27页

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September 2023

Oil Market Context

Crude and product markets continue to tighten on robust demand

Near-record global demand, in addition to OPEC+ production cuts, helped drive global visible oil inventories

lower by nearly 2.5 mb/d in August. Global inventories fell to a 13-month low led by steep declines of oil on the

water and inventories in China.

Tightening markets have caused crude oil prices to continue to rally into September, with Brent exceeding

$92/bbl for the first time since November.

Notably, diesel prices are rising even faster than crude, surging more than 40% in the US and Europe since

May. Tightness in refining capacity, exasperated by unplanned outages and under-investment, has driven

refining margins to an 8-month high. Diesel markets could face additional pressure in upcoming months as

refinery maintenance season ramps up and refinery yields of diesel remain reduced due to limited access to

medium and heavy crude grades.

Chinese demand remains resilient despite economic concerns

Chinese demand in July reached an all-time seasonal high for the third-time this year despite weakening

economic data. Oil demand in China has averaged up ~1.6 mb/d y/y so far this year. Growth has been driven

by the ramp-up of new and expanded petrochemical facilities and increased mobility. Jet/Kerosene demand

topped 1 mb/d for the first time in July after slumping to as low as 0.4 mb/d during lockdowns last year. Over

the summer period, domestic flight numbers were nearly 33% above pre-COVID levels while international

flights were still ~15% below pre-pandemic levels.

Saudi Arabia and Russia extend voluntary production cuts through December

On September 5th, Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its voluntary 1 mb/d production cut through

December. The press release noted that the decision would be reviewed monthly, and the cuts could be

deepened or reversed. Russia also announced it would extend its voluntary 300 kb/d cut through end-year.

2023 Forecast Highlights:

•Global demand:

•IEA and OPEC remain fairly aligned on global demand growth (~2.2-2.4 mb/d) following marginal revisions this month. EIA sees

lower growth (1.8 mb/d) despite a slight 0.1 mb/d upward revision this month.

•IEA continues to see ~0.8 mb/d higher Chinese demand growth this year vs. EIA and OPEC. Meanwhile, OPEC sees more robust

demand in Russia, Africa, the Middle East and other non-OECD countries compared to IEA and EIA.

•EIA and IEA’s demand estimates incorporated a ~0.3 mb/d downward adjustment to historical and forecasted US demand due to a

reclassification of natural gasoline and unfinished oils from product supplied to crude oil supply. This revision impacted historic and

forecasted demand levels but did not materially impact demand growth.

•Non-OPEC and OPEC NGL supply:

•OPEC and IEA revised up 3Q23 non-OPEC supply by 0.4 mb/d primarily on higher supply in Russia and Brazil. EIA’s forecast

remained largely unchanged from last month.

•IEA and EIA both now see non-OPEC supply growing this year by 2.0-2.1 mb/d. OPEC sees lower growth at 1.6 mb/d.

•The largest divergence in supply forecasts is for Russian production. OPEC sees a 0.58 mb/d decline in Russian output this year vs.

IEA’s forecast of a 0.16 mb/d annual decline and EIA’s forecast of a 0.30 mb/d decline.

•All three outlooks expect the US to be the largest driver of non-OPEC supply growth, adding around 1.1-1.3 mb/d of supply this year.

•“Call on OPEC”:

•All three forecasts show the 2H23 “call on OPEC” will exceed recent OPEC production levels. OPEC’s forecast shows that the call on

OPEC will rise to 30.7 mb/d by 4Q23, implying a 3.2 mb/d supply deficit if OPEC production remains at August levels (27.5 mb/d).

•August OPEC production:

•OPEC secondary sources show OPEC production rose by 0.11 mb/d in August to 27.45 mb/d led by a 143 kb/d increase from Iran.

IEA estimates show OPEC crude production rose by 0.09 mb/d to 27.96 mb/d. IEA estimates a higher production figure for UAE and

Iran vs. OPEC secondary sources.

•OECD inventories:

•IEA estimates OECD commercial inventories rose by 27.7 mb in July to 2,814 mb and stood 102.6 mb below the five-year average.

OPEC estimates OECD commercial stocks fell by 7.9 mb in July to 2,779 mb and stood 138 mb below the latest five-year average

and 190 mb below the 2015-2019 average.

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摘要：

September2023OilMarketContextCrudeandproductmarketscontinuetotightenonrobustdemandNear-recordglobaldemand,inadditiontoOPEC+productioncuts,helpeddriveglobalvisibleoilinventorieslowerbynearly2.5mb/dinAugust.Globalinventoriesfelltoa13-monthlowledbysteepdeclinesofoilonthewaterandinventoriesinChina.Tight...

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