BofA_Asia Fund Manager Survey February FMS- don’t change a winning combination_-240213

免费

3.0 梧桐 2024-03-02 27 511.68KB 14 页免费

侵权投诉

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are

not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in

relevant markets and the financial

resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

>> Employed by a non

-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst

under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Impo

rtant Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take

responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research

reports. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this

report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Refer to important disclosures on page

12 to 14.

Asia Fund Manager Survey

February FMS: don’t change a winning

combination

Signs of

a break-out (ex-China)

The Global Fund Manager Survey

(FMS) view of the global economy has risen to a 2-

year

high

after a protracted period of gloom, echoing the optimism of our proprietary

growth

indicators

. See BofA GPS: Anatomy of a bull market 30 January 2024. The

outlook for the

regional

economy moved up in tandem, with net 29% expecting a stronger APAC ex-

Japan

economy (highest since August

), and net 54% a stronger Japan economy in the next

12 m

onths. The lone exception: China, bucking the trend with more participants in favor

of a

weakening rather than a strengthening

in the year ahead for the first time since the

launch

of this periodical 17 months ago.

Yet, return expectations have softened

Surprisingly,

in an apparent disconnect, the return expectations for the region have

mellowed down a notch, likely due to the underwhelming YTD performance of index

heavyweight Chin

a. The moderation was driven by a dip in both the profits outlook as

well as the undervaluation perception of the regional equity markets.

Acute apathy

on China

The China equity market, in particular, failed to obtain the nod of approval from survey

participants, w

ith the majority willing to sit out/avoid at the moment

, including 15% who

are l

ooking to cut risk on any bounces. Tellingly, China allocation struck a new low as

investors brace for a

structural de-rating, given their belief that the propensity among

Chinese households

to preserve cash rather than spend/invest is here to stay.

Roaring bulls in Japan

: from value trap to value bias

The optimism on Japan remains unscathed, as

FMS spells out even brighter prospects

for returns

than before. 29% of participants expect double-digit returns in the next 12

months

with scant bids for a peak anytime soon. It is, by far, the favorite market in the

region, as cited by net 5

6% of investors, with a tilt towards semis and banks. Once

dubbed a

‘value trap’, investors now harbor a clear value bias in Japan, as corporate

governance reforms

– slated to be the most closely watched event this year – take

cent

erstage. Wage negotiations and BoJ policy normalization is yet another topic of

interest for investors, with the FMS looking for only a measured rise in the Shunto wage

growth from 3.6% in 2023 to 3.8% this year

Allocation:

status quo

The February FM

S has chosen momentum over rotation across markets and sectors.

The

favorable views on technology stay intact, with semis at the helm yet again

(cited by

net

% of participants) while real estate (net 23% underweight) stays out of favor. Among

markets, investors

prefer India and Taiwan (net 19% overweight each) apart from Japan,

while

avoiding Thailand (net 17% underweight) and China (-23%).

13 February 2024

Predictive Analytics

Asia

Ritesh Samadhiya, CFA

Equity Strategist

Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

+852 3508 7907

ritesh.samadhiya@bofa.com

Aritra

Baksi, CFA >>

Equity Strategist

Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

+852 3508 7914

aritra.baksi@bofa.com

Masashi Akutsu

Strategist

BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 7754

masa

shi.akutsu@bofa.com

Tony Lin, CFA

Equity Strategist

BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 8123

tony.y.lin@bofa.com

FMS:

Fund Manager Survey

NIRP: Negative interest rate policy

YCC: Yield curve control

Notes

to readers

A total of 2

49 panelists with $656bn

AUM participated in the survey. 2

participants with $

568bn AUM

responded to the global FMS questions

and 1

45 participants with $331

bn AUM

responded to the regional FMS

questions.

Survey period:

2 – 8 February 2024

How to join the FMS panel

Investors/clients are encouraged to

This can be done by contacting Michael

Hartnett

or your BofA sales

representative.

Participants in the survey receive the

full set of results for the month

s in

which

they participate.

Accessible version

Asia Fund Manager Survey

| 13 February 2024

February FMS: don’t change a winning

combination

Exhibit 1: Net % FMS investors expecting a stronger Asia Pacific ex-Japan economy

The FMS view of the global economy has risen to a 2-year high; the view on the Asian economy also picked

up from a month ago

Source:

BofA Global & Asia Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 2: Net % FMS investors expecting a stronger Japanese economy

Optimism on Japan stays unscathed: net 54% expect a stronger economy in the next 12 months

Source:

BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey.

Notes

: Votes for ‘Don't know’ (10% | 6%) are not shown above.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 3: Net % FMS investors expecting a stronger Chinese economy

But the FMS sounded alarm bells for the Chinese economy

Source:

BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

-100

-50

100

-100

-50

100

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Asia Pacific ex-Japan Global

A lot stronger A little stronger Same A little weaker A lot weaker

Feb-24

Jan-24

FMS view of the economic outlook for Japan over the next 12 months

-20

100

-20

100

10/22 12/22 2/23 4/23 6/23 8/23 10/23 12/23 2/24

Net % FMS investors expecting a stronger Chinese economy over the

next 12 months

Feb-2024 = -10%

Asia Fund Manager Survey |

13 February 2024

Exhibit 4: FMS view of the most surprising potential outcomes in 2024

33% of investors admit being taken aback if global growth in 2024 trumps that in 2023

Source: BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 5: FMS view of Asia Pac ex-Japan equities over the next 12 months

Return expectations have mellowed down a tad, likely due to the underwhelming performance of China YTD

Source:

BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey.

Notes

: Votes for ‘Don't know’ (6% | 13%) are not shown above.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 6: Net % FMS investors expecting better corporate profits in Asia Pacific ex-Japan

Disconnect: profit outlook takes a dip despite better economic outlook

Source:

BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

33%

23% 23%

19%

43%

18% 14%

20%

Global growth in 2024

stronger than in 2023

10yr UST ends 2024

below 3.5%

USDJPY goes back to

150

China equities decline

further in 2024

Feb-24

Jan-24

FMS view of the most suprising potential outcomes in 2024

0 0

Below -10% Between -10%

and -5%

Between -5%

and 0%

Between 0%

and +5%

Between +5%

and +10%

More than +10%

Feb-24

Jan-24

Expected upside for Asia Pac ex-Japan equities over the next 12 months

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

100

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

100

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Net % FMS investors expecting better profits in the next 12 months

Feb-2024 = 27%

Average

研报加载中……请稍候！
如果长时间未打开，您也可以点击刷新试试。

下载研报到电脑，查找使用更方便

立即下载

摘要：

Tradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperienceinrelevantmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoabsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategies.>>Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofBofASandisnotregistered/qualif...

展开>> 收起<<

BofA_Asia Fund Manager Survey February FMS- don’t change a winning combination_-240213.pdf

共14页,预览5页

还剩页未读，继续阅读