BofA_Global Fund Manager Survey Bulls go Global-240319

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Trading ideas and investment

strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are

not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial

resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst

under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take

responsibility for the information her

ein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research

reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of this repo

rt. Investors should consider this

report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Refer to important disclosures on page

23 to 25.

Global Fund Manager Survey

Bulls go Global

BofA

March Global Fund Manager Survey

Bottom Line

: global growth expectations for Fund Manager Survey (FMS) respondents

at a

2-year high as recession risks dissipate; FMS "risk appetite" highest since Nov'21;

stock

allocation at 2-year high; big rotation into Europe, EM, financials; cash levels up a

tad to 4.4% leaving BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

at 6.5…

bullish but not yet extreme bullish.

On Macro

: 2/3 of respondents say recession "unlikely" in next 12 months; "soft" landing

remains consensus

at 62% probability, while 23% say "no" landing (was 5% in Oct'23)

and

11% say "hard" landing (was 30%); EPS optimism at 2-year high and investor desire

for companies to return cash to shareholders highest since Jul'15.

On Rates, Risks & Crowds

: 84% expect short rates to decline next 12 months, 40%

expect lower bond yields

(was 62% in Dec'23); "inflation" seen as #1 tail risk; "long

Magnificent 7" = #1 most crowded trade;

asked if AI in bubble 45%

say no, 40% say yes.

On AA

: biggest jump in allocation to EM stocks since Apr'17, to EU stocks since Jun'20,

rotation

into financials, at expense of US, tech & consumer discretionary (cut by most

since

May’15); risk appetite also expressed via preference for low dividend stocks

highest since D

ec'21.

FMS Contrarian Trades

: for bubble = long tech, for

stagflation = long UK, commodities

& resources,

for hard landing = long staples, utilities.

Chart 1: BofA Global FMS risk appetite highest since Nov'21

% FMS respondents saying they are taking 'higher-than-normal' level of risks relative to their benchmark

Source:

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '25

% FMS taking higher-than-normal risk levels

Feb'04 Feb'13

Dec'17

Mar'21

Mar'24

19 March 2024

Investment Strategy

Global

Michael Hartnett

Investment Strategist

BofAS

+1 646 855 1508

michael.hartnett@bofa.com

Elyas

Galou >>

Investment Strategist

BofASE (France)

+33 1 8770 0087

elyas.galou@bofa.com

Anya Shelekhin

Investment Strategist

BofAS

+1 646 855 3753

anya.shelekhin@bofa.com

Myung

-Jee Jung

Investment Strategist

BofAS

+1 646 855 0389

myung

-jee.jung@bofa.com

Notes to Readers

Source for all tables and charts:

BofA Fund Manager Survey,

DataStream

Survey period

8th to 14th Mar 2024

226

panellists with $572bn AUM

participated in the

March survey.

198

participants with $

527bn AUM

responded to the Global FMS

questions and

119 participants with

256bn AUM responded to the

Regional FMS questio

ns.

How to join the FMS panel

Investors/clients are encouraged to

This can be done by contacting

Michael Hartnett

or your BofA sales

representative.

Participants in the survey will continue

receive the full set of monthly

results but only for the relevant month

in which they participate.

Accessible version

Global Fund Manager Survey

| 19 March 2024

Charts of the Month

Chart 2: BofA Global FMS sentiment most bullish since Jan'22

Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation

Source:

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

March FMS sentiment improved to the most

bullish level since Jan'22.

Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment,

based on cash levels, equity allocation, and

economic growth expectations, rose to 4.6

from 4.3.

Chart 3: Global growth expectations highest since Jan'22

Net % expecting a stronger global economy vs S&P 500 (YoY %)

Source:

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey; Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

FMS global growth expectations

up to highest

since Jan'22

, and have been front-

run by higher

stock prices

Chart 4: 2/3 of FMS investors say recession “unlikely” next 12 months

% of FMS say recession unlikely in next 12 months

Source:

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

ecession risks dissipating

…

2 out of 3 FMS

investors think it is "unlikely" that the global

economy will experience a recession in the

next 12 months (most since Feb'22).

9/11 Iraq

war

GFC

QE1

US/EU

debt crisis

BRICS

CNY

deval

Tax cuts

Trade

war

COVID

Blue wave

SVB

Mar'24

'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '25

Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations + cash AA + equity AA (scale 1-10)

Oct'98 Dec'00 Jul'08

Nov'11 Feb'16

Jan'19 Mar'20

Jul'22 -50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

-100

-50

100

150

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24

Net % Expecting Stronger Economy S&P 500 (YoY %, RHS)

Mar'09 Apr'20 Nov'22

Mar'24

100

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24

% FMS saying recession unlikely

Global Fund Manager Survey |

19 March 2024

Chart 5: 62% of FMS investors say soft landing, 23% say no landing, and 11% hard landing

What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?

Source:

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

“

Soft landing" remains the conventional

wisdom, with 6

2% expecting that outcome.

23%

say "no landing", up from 5% in Oct’23.

11% say

"hard landing", down from 30% in Oct.

Chart 6: FMS cash level rises to 4.4% from 4.2% of AUM

Average cash level (% of AUM)

Source:

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

The average cash level of FMS investors ticked

up to 4.4% from 4.2% of AUM.

Per BofA Global FMS Cash Rule

…when FMS

average cash balance rises >5%, triggers a buy

signal for equities (contrarian bullish signal),

<4% triggers a sell signal for equities

(contrarian bearish signal).

Chart 7: Higher inflation seen as the biggest tail risk

What do you consider the biggest 'tail risk'?

Source:

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

32% of FMS

investors see "higher inflation" as

the biggest tail risk

isks associated with "geopolitics" 21%,

"economic hard landing" 16%, systemic credit

event 11%

fading.

4% 3% 4% 9% 11% 5% 7% 6% 7% 19% 23%

63% 64% 68% 65% 64%

59% 67% 66% 71%

65% 62%

27% 26% 21% 20% 21% 30% 21% 23% 17% 11% 11%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

May'23 Jun'23 Jul'23 Aug'23 Sep'23 Oct'23 Nov'23 Dec'23 Jan'24 Feb'24 Mar'24

No landing Soft landing Hard landing

May'00

Feb'01

Oct'01

Mar'03 Dec'08 Jun'12

Oct'16 Apr'20

Oct'22

4.4%

'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '25

FMS average cash level (% of AUM)

32%

21%

16%

14%

11%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Higher inflation

Geopolitics

Economic hard landing

US election

Systemic credit event

China banking crisis

Mar-24

Feb-24

Jan-24

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