BofA-The Flow Show-Around the World in Eight Maps -240322
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Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are
not suitable for all investors. Investors
should have experience in relevant markets and the financial
resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.
>> Employed by a non
-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst
under the FINRA ru
les.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take
responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its resea
rch
reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important discl
osures on page 17 to 19. 12673395
The Flow Show
Around the World in Eight Maps
Scores on the Doors
: crypto 53.8%, oil 15.7%, commodities 8.4%, stocks 6.5%, gold
4.0%, US dollar 2.5%, HY bonds 1.2%, cash 1.1%, IG
-1.3%, govt bonds -3.2% YTD.
Zeitgeist
: eight maps depicting political, geopolitical, technological trends shaping
today
’s investment zeitgeist –see page 4 onward.
T
ale of the Tape: Fed desperate to cut rates, ECB/BoE need to cut rates, SNB cutting
rates, PBoC also cutting rates,
only BoJ raising rates (by a minimal 10bps); 55 global
central bank rate cuts
over the past 6 months (Chart 3); the DNA of today’s “everything
bull
.”
The Price is Right
: central banks tolerant of higher inflation, intolerant of currency
appreciation (
note yen at 30-year low vs renminbi –Chart 5), anxious
for soft landing but
also
to alleviate burden of record $82tn of global govt debt (Chart 4)…why bonds in
bear
and
nominal assets stocks & gold at all-time highs…(though not of course in real terms).
The Biggest Picture
: same Fed, same leadership: tech at all-time relative high (Chart 2
),
Mag
7 again >30% SPX; no new bull market as no recession, no change in leadership
(same
with IG & bonds), no kick-start cheap valuation (e.g. 10x PE in 1920s, ‘50s, ‘80s,
2010s
); ’24 = extension of bulls started in 09…and late cycles so often climax in bubbles.
Chart 2: Tech = bull leadership since GFC
Tech vs S&P 500 (price relative)
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, GFD Finaeon, Bloomberg
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
More on page 2…
+2 st. dev
-2 st. dev
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026
Tech vs S&P 500
21 March 2024
Investment Strategy
Global
Michael Hartnett
Investment Strategist
BofAS
+1 646 855 1508
michael.hartnett@bofa.com
Elyas Galou
>>
Investment Strategist
BofASE (France)
+33 1 8770 0087
elyas.galou@bofa.com
Anya Shelekhin
Investment Strategist
BofA
S
+1 646 855 3753
anya.shelekhin@bofa.com
Myung
-Jee Jung
Investment Strategist
BofAS
+1 646 855 0389
myung
-jee.jung@bofa.com
Chart 1: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator
Falls to 6.1 from 6.5
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicator
identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is
intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be
used for reference purposes or as a measure of
performance for any financial instrument or contract
, or
otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other
purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA
Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as
a benchmark.
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Extreme
Bullish
Extreme
Bearish
Sell
Buy
4
6
10
0
8
2
6.1
Accessible version
Timestamp: 21 March 2024 11:08PM EDT
2
The Flow Show
| 21 March 2024
Weekly Flows: $5.4bn to bonds, $1.1bn to gold, $0.1bn from crypto, $21.2bn from
stocks, $61.2bn from gold.
Flows to Know:
xCash: largest outflow since Oct’23 ($61.2bn);
xGold: largest inflow since May’23 ($1.1bn - Chart 7);
xHY bonds: largest outflow since Oct’23 ($0.7bn - Chart 8);
xUS equities: largest outflow since Dec’22 ($22.0bn - Chart 9);
xUS small cap: largest outflow since Dec’22 ($5.9bn);
xCommunications: record $1.7bn outflow;
xEnergy: largest inflow since Oct’23 ($0.5bn - Chart 10).
BofA Private Clients: $3.5tn AUM…61.1% stocks, 20.4% bonds, 11.7% cash; inflows to
debt trending negative after huge GWIM inflows '22/'23; same story in particular with T-
bills; in ETFs private clients buying tech, healthcare, Japan, selling utilities, low-vol,
energy past 4 weeks.
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: falls to 6.1 from 6.5 on HY bond & EM outflows and
worsening equity index breadth.
Chart 3: 55 global rate cuts past 6 months
Global central bank rate cuts (3-month cumulative)
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Chart 4: Government debt +$20tn since COVID, +
$50tn since GFC
Global government debt ($tn)
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, Haver
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Global central bank rate cuts (6-month cumulative)
Jun'20
131 cuts
Mar'24
55
cuts
May'09
147 cuts
$82tn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
'52 '58 '64 '70 '76 '82 '88 '94 '00 '06 '12 '18 '24
Global government debt ($ tn)
GFC
Covid
+$30tn
+$20tn
The Flow Show |
21 March 2024
3
Chart 5: Chinese renminbi @ 30-year low vs Japanese yen
Chinese renminbi vs Japanese yen
Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Chart 6: Magnificent 7 back to >30% of S&P 500 market cap
“Magnificent Seven” market cap as % of S&P 500
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
Magnificent Seven = Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Chart 7: Largest inflow to gold since May’23
Gold fund flows (weekly & 4-week MA, $bn)
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Chart 8: Largest outflow from HY bonds since Oct’23
HY bond fund flows (weekly & 4-week MA, $bn)
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Chart 9: Largest outflow from US equities since Dec’22
US equity fund flows (weekly & 4-week MA, $bn)
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Chart 10: Largest inflow to energy since Oct’23
Energy fund flows (weekly & 4-week MA, $bn)
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, EPFR
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
'25
Chinese renminbi vs Japanese yen
Chinese renminbi highest vs Japanese yen since Feb'93
29%
20%
30%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
'25
'Magnificent Seven' market cap, as a
% of S&P 500
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
'17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Gold flows ($bn) Gold flows 4-week MA ($bn)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Corp HY flows ($bn) Corp HY flows 4-week MA ($bn)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
'17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
US equities flows ($bn)
US equities flows 4-week MA ($bn)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
'17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Energy flows ($bn) Energy flows 4-week MA ($bn)
摘要：
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作者：九派
分类：外资研报
价格：免费
属性：19 页
大小：1.5MB
格式：PDF
时间：2024-04-04
