高盛：中国从日本失去的几十年中吸取的股票教训及其投资影响.2023.10.29-总35页

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Japaniﬁcation has become a buzzword

The combination of a housing market downturn, demographic headwinds, and high

leverage has generated widespread interest in comparing China now to Japan in the

90s/00s. Our economists see similarities but also signiﬁcant macro differences,

suggesting that Japaniﬁcation is far from the only path forward for China.

China equities now are simply not Japan in the late 80s...

1) Japan traded on 60x tPE at the peak, vs 20x for China in early 2021; 2) Japan’s

trend proﬁt growth was much lower in the late 80s than Chinese growth at present;

3) the Yen doubled post Plaza Accord and stayed strong after the market peaked, but

the Rmb is arguably undervalued now; and, 4) household exposures to equities are

lower in China, implying stronger asset reallocation ﬂows to equities.

...but, there are valuable lessons learned for equity investors (and policymakers)

Powerful and tradable rallies existed even in a sustained bear market; 1.

Resolving structural issues requires decisive, forceful, and predictable policies; 2.

Real rates matter more than QE for equity valuations; 3.

Adaptors, innovators, and exporters prevailed when local growth was challenged; 4.

New consumption patterns created new winners; 5.

Property deleveraging was a multi-year process; 6.

NPL recognition and recapitalization are keys to re-rate banks; 7.

Investing in technology is necessary to boost and realize growth potential; 8.

Investors do pay for corporate governance reform; 9.

Government directly buying equities is helpful, in most cases. 10.

Buy China Rebalancing Portfolio

These lessons suggest that mass-market consumer names, select exporters, and

the themes of AI, New Infra, Little Giants, and governance leaders could do well as

China rebalances. We highlight 40 GS-Buy rated beneﬁciaries.

Kinger Lau, CFA

+852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Bruce Kirk, CFA

+81(3)6437-9950 | bruce.kirk@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

Timothy Moe, CFA

+65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

Kazunori Tatebe, CFA

+81(3)6437-9898 |

kazunori.tatebe@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

Kevin Wang, CFA

+852-2978-2446 | kevin.wang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Si Fu, Ph.D.

+852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

China Strategy

Equity lessons learned for China from Japan’s lost

decades and investment implications

29 October 2023 | 6:06PM HKT

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC

certiﬁcation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

7129cc0ac47f4f769717f34be82e5c02

Acknowledgement: the team would like to thank Julius Chan and Cheng Jiang, who

are interns in Global Investment Research, for their contribution to the report.

29 October 2023 2

Goldman Sachs China Strategy

7129cc0ac47f4f769717f34be82e5c02

Exhibit 1: GS China Rebalancing Portfolio—these stocks could outperfom as the China growth story evolves

Source: FactSet, IBES, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

29 October 2023 3

Goldman Sachs China Strategy

7129cc0ac47f4f769717f34be82e5c02

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标签： #日本

摘要：

JapaniﬁcationhasbecomeabuzzwordThecombinationofahousingmarketdownturn,demographicheadwinds,andhighleveragehasgeneratedwidespreadinterestincomparingChinanowtoJapaninthe90s/00s.Oureconomistsseesimilaritiesbutalsosigniﬁcantmacrodifferences,suggestingthatJapaniﬁcationisfarfromtheonlypathforwardforChina....

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高盛：中国从日本失去的几十年中吸取的股票教训及其投资影响.2023.10.29-总35页.pdf

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