JPMorgan Econ FI-China A strong start to achieve a challenging task-107375282

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See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures.

China: A strong start to achieve a challenging task

Haibin ZhuAC

Chief China Economist

+852 2800 7039

haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., Hong Kong

Economic Research

April 2024

Tingting GeAC

Greater China Economic Research

+852 2800 0143

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., Hong Kong

Grace NgAC

Greater China Senior Economist

+852 2800 7002

grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., Hong Kong

Ji YanAC

Greater China Economic Research

+852 2800 7673

ji.yan@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., Hong Kong

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Executive summary

➢China’s 2024 outlook: “around 5%” growth target is challenging but achievable

➢Our growth forecast in 2024 is 5.2%, with a strong start (6.6%q/q saar in 1Q) then moderating to trend growth

(4.3%q/q saar in 2H)

➢Rotation of growth drivers: 3.3%pts from consumption, 2%pts from investment and 0% from net exports (vs.

4.3 / 1.5 / -0.6% in 2023)

➢Macro policy to coordinate:

➢Fiscal policy: Augmented fiscal deficit (12.2% of GDP) will be marginally higher than 2023 (12.0%), a reversal

of 1% fiscal drag in 2023. Fiscal support comes more from budgetary items and more from the central

government

➢Monetary policy: We expect two 10bp policy rate cuts (2Q and 3Q) and one more 25bp RRR cut (after 50bp

RRR cut in 1Q). Structural monetary policy instruments will step up as a quasi-fiscal measure, including a 1

trillion yuan package to support public housing / urban village renovation / public infrastructure

➢CNY exchange rate: a nuanced but important change since last July

➢Changes in policy direction are more important than the size of macro policy support

➢Demand vs. supply imbalance

➢Industry policy: manufacturing vs. service upgrade; SOE vs. non-SOE

China economic outlook

Table: China economic indicators

Average

2017-21 2022 2023 2024f

Real GDP, % change 5.9 3.0 5.2 5.2

Consumption¹ 3.1 1.0 4.3 3.3

Inv estment¹ 2.1 1.5 1.5 2.0

Net trade¹ 0.7 0.5 -0.6 0.0

Consumer prices, %oy a 2.0 2.0 0.2 0.6

% Dec/Dec 2.0 1.8 -0.3 1.4

Gov ernment balance, % of GDP -3.0 -2.8 -3.8 -3.8

Merchandise trade balance (US$ bn) 464 669 608 597

Ex ports 2,547 3,348 3,182 3,261

Imports 2,084 2,679 2,574 2,664

Current account balance 181 402 264 196

% of GDP 1.2 2.2 1.5 1.1

International reserv es, (US$ bn) 3,178 3,111 3,239 3,309

1. Contribution to grow th of GDP.

Source: NBS; J.P. Morgan forecasts

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1Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.China:AstrongstarttoachieveachallengingtaskHaibinZhuACChiefChinaEconomist+85228007039haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankN.A.,HongKongEconomicResearchApril2024TingtingGeACGreaterChinaEconomicResearch+85228000143tingt...

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