JPMorgan Econ FI-Global Data Watch Predictions are hard, especially about the...-107425068

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Global Economic Research

05 April 2024

JPMORGAN

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Contents

US: The asterisk next to a rising r* 13

Brazil: Mind micro reforms 15

South Africa: Tracking voter support ahead of

elections 18

Australia: Cyclical proof yet to come in the margin 20

PBOC bond purchases are not China’s QE 23

China’s rise as an auto producer 26

Korea: Election unlikely to shake the policy outlook 30

Global Economic Outlook Summary 3

Global Central Bank Watch 6

Economic Activity Tracking 8

Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan

Economics 10

J.P. Morgan Market Watch 11

Data Watches

United States 32

Focus: Small establishments still keeping job

openings up 38

Euro area 39

Japan 44

Canada 48

Mexico 50

Brazil 52

Argentina 54

Andeans 56

United Kingdom 58

Sweden and Norway 61

Emerging Europe 63

South Africa 68

Australia and New Zealand 70

China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan 72

Korea 75

ASEAN 77

India 81

Asia focus 83

Regional Data Calendars 84

Economic and Policy Research

Bruce Kasman

(1-212) 834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

Joseph Lupton

(1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Michael S Hanson

(1-212) 622-8603

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Global Data Watch

•Growth and inflation resilience raise odds of high-for-long soft-landing

•Yen weakness bolsters July BoJ hike; upside risks to 1H24 China GDP

•Firming PMIs point to growth upturn in EMAX

•Up next: US Mar CPI (Wed); ECB (Thu), BoC (Wed), BoI (Tue)

Predictions are hard, especially about the future

The uniqueness of the current state of the expansion, with late cycle interest rates

but mid-cycle fundamentals, has wrong-footed many a forecaster. By late last year,

most had backed away from expectations for an early demise of the global

expansion. This did not stop many, however, from still anticipating a material

growth slowdown in 2024, citing a fading of last year’s transitory supports (e.g.,

supply-chain normalization, service sector recovery, rapid disinflation, US fiscal

boosts, China reopening) as well as a building drag from high rates. Such

predictions are once again being proved wrong. As we have long argued, high rates

alone are insufficient to generate a recession. Rather, it is the interaction of high

rates with macro vulnerabilities that sparks downturns. These vulnerabilities

include extended credit cycles, inefficient over-investment, and excess household

or corporate leverage—all things that are still notably absent in this cycle. This

recognition has underpinned our belief that the expansion has sufficient fuel to

continue at a robust pace, and that a growing risk is that inflation remains sticky,

keeping rates higher for longer than anticipated.

Both the inflation and activity data since the start of the year are confirming our

views. In the US and Western Europe, inflation has surprised to the upside in recent

months. Two back-to-back strong CPI readings in the US are a reminder that

disinflations rarely move in straight lines. In the Euro area, this week’s softer-than-

expected March flash HICP report likely owes to similarly one-off factors. More

generally, service sector inflation in the US and Europe (and globally) remains

stuck at stubbornly high levels. The resilience in growth has been equally

impressive as we have revised up 1H24 global GDP growth by 0.5%-pt since the

start of the year (Figure 1), and risks are still skewed to the upside.

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Jan 23 Apr 23 Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24 Apr 24

% chg, saar; forecast by date made; both scales

Figure 1: J.P. Morgan 1H24 global forecasts

Source: JPM global economics; *Excludes China and Türkiye

Core CPI*

GDP

Potential

08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

DI, sa

Figure 2: Global all-ind PMI and real GDP

%q/q, saar; 1Q, 2Q24 forecasts boxed

Source: S&P Global, J.P. Morgan

GDP

PMI

See page 93 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

Bruce Kasman (1-212) 834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

Global Economic Research

Global Data Watch

05 April 2024

JPMORGAN

The level of this week’s global PMI is consistent with a

strong 2.9%ar gain in global GDP growth in March (in line

with our 1Q24 projection but well above our 2.3%ar forecast

for the current quarter; Figure 2). The rise owes to a move up

in services and an even larger gain in manufacturing. Com-

bined with strengthening orders demand and improved expec-

tations, the message is one of broad-based growth. The

breadth of income generation is important in extending the

expansion. Surprisingly resilient corporate income gains are

bolstering business spending. This, in turn, is boosting labor

incomes. While the US leads the pack in job growth, under-

scored by Friday’s boomy 303k jump in payrolls, business

enthusiasm for hiring is broadly based. Along with the Euro

area maintaining a 6.5% unemployment rate (February was

the 11th of the past 12 months at this historic low), this week’s

global employment PMI for March edged higher to a level

consistent with ongoing strength in hiring.

-4

-2

-3

-2

-1

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Std. dev from 2010-19 average

Figure 3: Consumer confidence and spending, global ex China

%3m/3m, saar

Source: National sources, J.P. Morgan. Details on request.

Real consumer

goods spending

Confidence

Strong labor income gains should support a pickup in con-

sumer spending. In the US, while auto sales for March disap-

pointed and gave up some of February’s gain, our Chase card

data point to a strong 0.57% gain in retail control last month.

And although Euro area February retail sales disappointed

this week, we maintain that improving real incomes along

with rising consumer confidence will ultimately spark a

rebound there (Figure 3). One caveat that challenges our view

is the recent rise in oil prices.

Resilient growth and easing financial conditions boost the

likelihood of a soft-landing well into 2025. However, sticky

inflation also increases the likelihood that rates remain high

for much longer than currently expected. The dovish tone

from the major central banks, seemingly intent on starting

their easing cycles by around midyear, is now being tempered

with rhetoric signaling a more cautious path once rate cuts

begin. This is particularly true for the numerous Fed speakers

this week and is likely to be the message from next week’s

ECB meeting. We push back the start of the Fed easing cycle

until July but still see 75bp of cuts through year-end and still

expect the ECB to begin 100bp of cuts this year at the June

meeting. However, ongoing growth resilience and sticky

inflation raise the odds of fewer cuts. A key unknown is how

much this would reverse the easy financial conditions that

have helped support growth.

Watching for hints of shift in ECB guidance

The ECB has sent a strong signal of late for a June cut. This

is surprising given the latest data. After the upside inflation

surprise in February, which the latest minutes discussed as a

“warning shot,” this week’s flash HICP report for March

looked sticky in services with a 0.42%m/m, sa, gain. An early

Easter does not look to have artificially boosted this number

given that package holiday price inflation eased in Germany.

Overall, core inflation eased from a 0.35%m/m average in

Jan/Feb to 0.24%m/m in March, but even the latter is still a

3%ar and reflects strength in services. On balance, we see

core inflation tracking 2.8%oya this quarter compared to the

ECB’s implied forecast of 2.5%. In addition, incoming wage

data still look solid while productivity data look weak. Com-

bined with the latest upward revision in the final composite

PMI signaling a 0.9%ar on GDP growth, the urgency for rate

cuts should be reduced. Nevertheless, recent ECB commen-

tary keeps risks balanced for a June move, but we will watch

Lagarde’s comments next week for any thawing in the seem-

ingly firm calendar guidance on the June cut.

Japan: Talkin’ ’bout an intervention

Japanese authorities remain vigilant against yen weakness as

the Fed gets repriced, with the MoF vice minister strongly

signaling possible currency intervention. BoJ governor Ueda,

who otherwise has been cautious on policy tightening, stated

that a weaker yen could be a factor in additional rate hikes.

The trend weakening of the yen despite firming underlying

price momentum and generally better business sentiment has

led to greater concern among policymakers. Even though

growth has remained sluggish to start the year, with indica-

tions of a modest contraction in 1Q consumer spending and a

recent plunge in production, sentiment among nonmanufac-

turers reached a 33-year high in the March BoJ Tankan Sur-

vey (although manufacturers posted a small slide). If the yen

continues to depreciate while deposit rates remain significant-

ly negative, capital outflows could accelerate. This risk sup-

ports our expectation for a further mid-year hike.

China first-half bounce looking bouncier

China’s March PMIs suggest solid economic momentum and

upside risk to our 1H24 GDP growth forecast. While the

Lunar New Year-related boost to consumption and services

spending may have faded, business and production-related

activity has picked up. Both the NBS and Caixin manufactur-

ing PMIs posted broad-based improvement—with the NBS

reaching a 12-month high—suggesting the strong Jan-Feb

manufacturing activity data continued into March. The PMIs

Bruce Kasman (1-212) 834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

Global Economic Research

05 April 2024

JPMORGAN

also point to exports continuing to outperform the rest of the

region; recent strength in China’s exports can be attributed to

a jump to non-traditional EM markets outside of Asia (from

less than 23% of exports in 2010 to 30% last year). The NBS

nonmanufacturing PMI hit a nine-month high as well. Yet the

supply-demand imbalance persists despite strong activity in

recent months, and should continue to spur near-term defla-

tion. We expect next week’s March CPI and PPI will decline

by 0.1% and 0.5%m/m, respectively.

Improving momentum reinforces our low probability for

additional stimulus following the March NPC meeting. The

pace of government bond issuance has slowed in March, and

TSF growth may slow further to 8.6%oya in March (from

9.0% in February and 9.5% in January) as the PBOC seeks

normalization in bank lending this year. Even if recent specu-

lation about possible open-market purchases of Treasury

bonds is realized, we see that more as an addition to the

PBOC’s liquidity management toolkit rather than a signal of

additional stimulus or a shift to a QE-type policy.

Cyclical lift brewing in EM Asia

The March manufacturing PMI data suggest a regional

upswing is underway among EM Asia outside of Mainland

China as well—adding upside risks to 1H24 growth. Howev-

er, production data through February continue to show the

firming is narrowly led in tech even if there are signs that

non-tech could be bottoming out. The recent earthquake in

Taiwan should not pose a threat as most tech companies were

able to restart production quickly. We expect chip production

to fully rebound this quarter. By contrast, the auto sector

remains soft, with regional production contracting through

February.

-10

-5

-20

-10

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

%oya, 3mma; US$ terms

Figure 4: EM Asia exports and aggregate currency index

%oya

Source: National sources, J.P. Morgan. Details on request.

EM Asia exports

ADXY

A broad-based cyclical rebound could improve the growth

differentials in favor of EM Asian economies, which might

support regional currencies through a resumption of capital

inflows. Indeed, there is some hope that the procyclicality of

Asian currencies will reassert itself (Figure 4). The reversal of

recent currency weakness would provide room for the

region’s central banks to focus more on domestic conditions

rather than external stability amid a high-for-long DM rate

environment. If the cyclical lift also boosted domestic

demand across EMAX, it would, in fact, reduce the need to

provide policy accommodation.

RBI maintains the status quo

As we had expected, the RBI maintained its monetary stance,

policy rates, and tone this week. Upside growth surprises, oil

prices rising close to US$90/bbl, and shallower-than-project-

ed winter food disinflation all contributed to expectations for

an RBI that remained suitably hawkish. The MPC continues

to keep policy actively disinflationary, seeking to reach the

4% target on a durable basis. This week’s tone reinforces our

recently updated call for monetary easing to not start until

August or possibly later. That said, we look for growth to

slow more than the RBI expects in coming quarters, which

we see as an important factor in determining when the RBI

eases later this year.

Türkiye’s municipal election implications

For the first time in two decades, the main opposition Repub-

lican People’s Party collected slightly more national votes in

Sunday’s municipal elections than President Erdogan’s AK

Party—37.8% to 35.5%. The main opposition party won 35

provincial mayoral seats, up from 21 in the 2019 municipal

elections. Meanwhile the AK Party won in 24 cities, down

from 39 in 2019. In a post-election speech, Erdogan high-

lighted that Türkiye will have four years without elections to

address the economic issues it faces, and he ruled out populist

economic policies. We also take a positive message for mar-

kets from his support for continuing the current medium-term

program aimed at disinflation, and for prioritizing that over

growth in the near term.

Bank of Israel to err on the side of caution

Although the economic picture provides space for continued

policy easing in Israel, increased geopolitical tensions and

moves in DM rates pricing make it likely the BoI keeps the

policy rate unchanged at next week’s meeting (previously:

-25bp). The exchange rate lost more than 3% in NEER terms

in the past month, while the yield curve shifted higher. The

case for delayed cuts is further supported by firming momen-

tum in core inflation in February and growth tracking a mate-

rial 1Q24 rebound of 15%q/q, saar after plunging 20.7% in

4Q23. While we still look for 75bp of cuts by year-end, even

the risks to this view are being skewed to a shallower path.

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GlobalEconomicResearch05April2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comContentsUS:Theasterisknexttoarisingr*13Brazil:Mindmicroreforms15SouthAfrica:Trackingvotersupportaheadofelections18Australia:Cyclicalproofyettocomeinthemargin20PBOCbondpurchasesarenotChina’sQE23China’sriseasanautoproducer26Korea:Election...

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