摩根士丹利-如何迎接中国经济复苏机遇20230613

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侵权投诉



Global Consumer 全球消费行业

如何迎接中国经济复苏机遇



楼超

股票分析师

 !"# $%&&$'$()%*&

邢自强

中国首席经济学家

+,- !"# $%&&$'$()%..

Chetan Ahya

亚洲首席经济学家

/0! 0" !"# $%&&&12(3$.&

Jonathan F Garner

股票策略师

4 05! !"# )%)$1'($.3&

王滢

股票策略师

6 !"# $%&&$'$()$%1

郑林

经济学家

4!"70! !"# $%&12)1('*.%

Praveen K Choudhary

股票分析师

89!!/0:0" !"# $%&&$'$(%*)$

凌珈瑜

股票分析师

;:" !"# $%&&&12(3$1'

汤勖维

研究助理

6<= !"# $%&&$'$(3'*$

魏文浩

股票分析师

> 6! !"# $%&&&12(3$&1

?//

Alex Straton

股票分析师

!@   !"# .&.&3).(%%$1

Dara Mohsenian, CFA

股票分析师

>0! !"# .&.&3).()%3%

Brian Harbour, CFA

股票分析师

A;, !"# .).3$%)($*2*

Lauren Schenk

股票分析师

!#0!< !"# .&.&3).('.'1

Stephen W Grambling

股票分析师

 !B0!5, !"# .&.&3).(.*.*

我们估计，中国将贡献2022到2024年全球消费增长

的60-70%。在本报告中，我们讨论了目前市场上围绕中国消

费复苏的争论，并推荐海外和国内21只受益于中国消费趋势的

股票。

在中国因新冠疫情缓解重新开放而开始初期复苏后，投资者因应这一题材投资欧

洲奢侈品股票等海外受益股而获益：这些股票从2023年年初到高位上涨了26%，

而同期国内消费股则下跌了2%。然而这种开放初期相对“容易”的投资之后，最

近随着市场对中国近期复苏步伐的担忧，海外中国题材股票和国内消费股同时回

调（自4月底以来分别回调8%和7%）；如何在消费复苏“后周期”进行股票配置

成为投资者关注的主要问题。

我们对在年下半年至年中国消费复苏期的投资建议是：有选择地配置海

外中国题材股，增加国内股票的配比。我们在全球看好21只股票，其中美国五

只，欧洲四只，亚洲（除中国外）两只，中国内地/香港10只（Exhibit 5）—— 其

中在海外中国题材股中，我们首推的五只股票为发发奇、历峰集

团 !"、露露乐蒙#$#$、好丽友%&和花王'(。我们首选的

国内受益股主要集中在博彩)购物中心、体育鞋服、餐饮以及食品和饮料等板块。

我们对这21只股票的2023年EPS预期平均较市场一致预期高7%，并预计这些公司

今年中国的平均销售增长率为21%（不包括澳门博彩业）。

我们对中国经济复苏持建设性观点和持仓的逻辑基于以下判断：

•未来几个季度，消费复苏范围将在就业市场改善的推动下进一步扩大。中

国的私人消费在2023年一季度虽强势反弹，但冷热不均。我们相信消费复

苏已进入第二阶段，改善的范围将从受新冠疫情严重打击的板块（约占总

消费的25%）扩大到中产阶级和大众市场消费。我们预计在未来四至五个

季度内，接触型服务业将创造2,000万个新就业岗位，这将有助家庭收入持

续改善，并帮助部分释放疫情期间积累的超额居民储蓄。因此我们预测私

人消费的按季实际年化环比增速（经季节性调整）可在2023年下半年

至2024年维持在6.7%的平均水平，直至2024年第四季度才回归疫情之

后4.8%的潜在增速。

•市场目前正在反映复苏步伐的短期波动，我们预计年下半年预期有机

会上调。市场对中国消费前景的悲观是由于迄今为止复苏的步伐不平衡，

而这种不平衡归因于劳动力市场起点低同时政策层面并没有明显放松，同

时在这个过程中板块和个别公司间业绩差异明显。我们预期2023年下半年

消费将逐渐小幅恢复，但这种复苏更可持续同时路径更为清晰，从而支持

市场一致预期在今年迄今为止的下调后开始上调。我们对所覆盖的中国内

地/香港消费板块中70多只国内消费股的2023年EPS预期平均较市场一致预

期高2%，鉴于股票数量众多，这个平均幅度历来表明我们建议超配

（OW）的股票有合理的上行空间。

•板块增长动能的驱动力将从报复性消费和高端需求转为持续的收入增长：

在这个过程中，来自高收入消费者的高端需求将继续表现出良好的增长，

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June 13, 2023 02:22 AM GMT



我们更看好具有超高端定位的公司。我们预计大众需求将在2023年下半年

得到改善（尽管我们预计的时间有可能过早），这将仍有利于旅行和体验

相关的品类，并更为有利于基本日常消费品类，特别是国内消费股在这些

品类中涉及面更大，而我们认为目前价值被低估。

Exhibit 1:我们全球首选的中国经济复苏受益股

Ticker Analyst Company

Lillian LouMoutai600519.SS

Lillian LouMengniu2319.HK

Lillian LouYUM ChinaYUMC.N

Hildy LingHaidilao6862.HK

Dustin WeiTopsports6110.HK

Dustin WeiANTA2020.HK

Praveen ChoudharyHang Lung Properties0101.HK

Praveen ChoudharyHysan0014.HK

Praveen ChoudharySands China1928.HK

Praveen ChoudharyMGM China2282.HK

Domestic Players

Yubo MaoPernod RicardPERP.PA

Yubo MaoABIABI.BR

Brian HarbourYUM! BrandsYUM.N

Stephen GramblingLas Vegas SandsLVS.N

Edouard AubinLVMHLVMH.PA

Dara MohsenianEstee LauderEL.N

Haruka MiyakeKao Corp4452.T

Kelly KimOrion271560.KS

Alex StratonLululemonLULU.O

Edouard AubinRichemont SACFR.S

Lauren SchenkFarfetch Inc.FTCH.N

Global Players

This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from

the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy

between the translation and the original research report, the content in the original

research report will prevail. The original research report can be found here: Global

Consumer: How to Play China's Recovery (28 May 2023).

本翻译报告仅供参考之便，摘自以英文发表的原版研究报告。如果翻译与原版研

究报告有任何不一致之处，以原版研究报告中的内容为准。原版研究报告可在此

处查看：Global Consumer: How to Play China's Recovery (28 May 2023)。

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Edouard Aubin

股票分析师

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Rashad Kawan

股票分析师

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Yubo Mao, CFA

股票分析师

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Kelly H Kim, CFA

股票分析师

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Haruka Miyake

股票分析师

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中国内地/香港消费行业

Asia Pacific

行业观点 In-Line



Morgan Stanley Research 3

Disclosure Section

The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A. and/or Morgan Stanley México,

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For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website

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"(*+, & -( 

The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not

receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Edouard Aubin; Praveen K Choudhary; Jonathan F Garner; Stephen W

Grambling; Brian Harbour, CFA; Rashad Kawan; Kelly H Kim, CFA; Hildy Ling; Lillian Lou; Yubo Mao, CFA; Haruka Miyake; Dara Mohsenian, CFA; Lauren Schenk; Alex Straton; Laura Wang; Dustin

Wei.

*.(*,(&-* /((0 1*+

Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies. A

Portuguese version of the policy can be found at www.morganstanley.com.br

2& ( 03*( &+4,*,3&,!3.5 2(,

The analyst or strategist (or a household member) identified below owns the following securities (or related derivatives): Praveen K Choudhary - Stella International Holdings Ltd(common

or preferred stock).

As of May 31, 2023, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: China Resources

Beer Holdings Co Ltd, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Estee Lauder Companies Inc, Farfetch Ltd., Haidilao International Holding Ltd, Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Li Ning, Lululemon Athletica

Inc., Pernod Ricard SA, Proya Cosmetics Co. Ltd., Regina Miracle International (Holdings), Samsonite International, Shenzhou International Group Holdings, Suofeiya Home Collection Co. Ltd,

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd, Yatsen Holding Limited, Yihai International Holding Ltd, Yum! Brands, Inc..

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of ANTA Sports Products, Pernod Ricard SA, Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial

Group Ltd, Weilong Delicious Global Holdings Ltd.

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from ANTA Sports Products, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, Pernod Ricard

SA, WH Group, Yihai International Holding Ltd.

In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, ANTA Sports Products, Budweiser

Brewing Company APAC Ltd, Dali Foods, Estee Lauder Companies Inc, Farfetch Ltd., Haidilao International Holding Ltd, Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Hang Lung Properties Ltd., Hengan International

Group, Joyoung Co Ltd, JS Global Lifestyle Co Ltd, Kao, Las Vegas Sands Corp, Lululemon Athletica Inc., LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, MGM China Holdings Limited, Midea Group

Co Ltd., Nongfu Spring Co Ltd, Pernod Ricard SA, Pop Mart International Group, Regina Miracle International (Holdings), Richemont SA, Samsonite International, Sands China Ltd., Techtronic

Industries Co Ltd, Tingyi (Cayman Islands), Topsports International Holdings Ltd, Uni-President China, Want Want China Holdings Ltd, WH Group, Yatsen Holding Limited, Yihai International

Holding Ltd, Yue Yuen Industrial Hldg, Yum! Brands, Inc., Zhou Hei Ya International Holdings.

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, ANTA Sports Products,

China Foods Limited, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd, Gree Electric Appliances Inc of Zhuhai, Haidilao International Holding Ltd, Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Hengan International Group, Las

Vegas Sands Corp, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, Midea Group Co Ltd., Pacific Textiles Holdings Limited, Pernod Ricard SA, Pop Mart International Group, Regina Miracle International

(Holdings), Samsonite International, Stella International Holdings Ltd, Techtronic Industries Co Ltd, Topsports International Holdings Ltd, Uni-President China, WH Group, Yanjing Brewery, Yihai

International Holding Ltd, Yue Yuen Industrial Hldg, Yum China Holdings Inc., Yum! Brands, Inc..

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following company:

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, ANTA Sports Products, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Ltd, Dali Foods, Estee Lauder Companies Inc, Farfetch Ltd., Haidilao International Holding Ltd, Haier Smart

Home Co Ltd, Hang Lung Properties Ltd., Hengan International Group, Joyoung Co Ltd, JS Global Lifestyle Co Ltd, Kao, Las Vegas Sands Corp, Lululemon Athletica Inc., LVMH Moet Hennessy

Louis Vuitton SA, MGM China Holdings Limited, Midea Group Co Ltd., Nongfu Spring Co Ltd, Pernod Ricard SA, Pop Mart International Group, Regina Miracle International (Holdings), Richemont

SA, Samsonite International, Sands China Ltd., Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial Group Ltd, Techtronic Industries Co Ltd, Tingyi (Cayman Islands), Topsports International Holdings Ltd, Uni-President

China, Want Want China Holdings Ltd, Weilong Delicious Global Holdings Ltd, WH Group, Yatsen Holding Limited, Yihai International Holding Ltd, Yue Yuen Industrial Hldg, Yum! Brands, Inc..

Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide

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摘要：

MGlobalInsightGlobalConsumer全球消费行业如何迎接中国经济复苏机遇MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+楼超股票分析师Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.com+8522848-6502邢自强中国首席经济学家Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com+8522848-6511ChetanAhya亚洲首席经济学家Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com+8522239-7812JonathanFGarner股票策略师Jonathan.Garner@morganstanley.com+656834-8172王滢股...

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