摩根士丹利-厄尔尼诺与日剧增的危机20230803
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
El Niño Tracker: Increasing Risk
Cross-Sector Analysis
August 3, 2023
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investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
refer to Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
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+ = Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered
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Source: Shutterstock
August 3, 2023 09:00 PM GMT
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
El Niño tracker, August 2023
2
El Niño Tracker: Increasing Risk
El Niño Impacts Global Weather Duration and Intensity Matters
Source:NOOA Climate.gov.
We could be facing a moderate-strong El Niño event later this year, with potentially relevant impacts. Morgan Stanley’s El Niño
Tracker will follow the evolution, providing an updated framework on the implications and ways to play it.
•Conditions evolving into El Niño. Current "Alert" status implies ~70% probabilities and weather models suggest El Niño may
be confirmed in early September, evolving into a moderate-strong event later this year.
•Relevant for global weather. El Niño tends to peak around year-end, impacting global rains and temperature, and seasonal
patterns in the US, Argentina, and Andes (wet) and Southeast Asia, Australia, Brazil-Colombia, and Africa (droughts), moving
wildfires and hurricanes from the Atlantic into the Pacific area.
•What to pay attention to: Models suggest El Niño could be confirmed in early September. At that point, we will have more
certainty on the strength and duration, both key to framing the potential impact.
•Relevant for global economy and ESG. A moderate-strong El Niño could impact food inflation, adding risks to EM fiscal and
rate cut expectations. It could also impact trade and GDP in agri-related economies —Argentina, India, Australia, Brazil, and
Colombia, among others. It may also impact several commodities, including sugar, grains, animal meal, proteins, electricity,
lithium, copper, iron ore, aluminum, and coal.
•How to play it: The impact changes (+/-) by sector, and particularly by region. El Niño tends to be (-) in EM, though Argentina
(+) is an exception, as it is still recovering from La Niña. In this report, we present what to expect by sector: (+/-) Agribusiness,
(+/-) Chemicals, (-) Proteins, (-) Food & Beverage, (-) Food Retailers, (+/-) Utilities, and (+) Insurance.
Very Strong
Strong
Moderate
Weak
Weak
Moderate
Strong
Neutral
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Source:NOOA Climate.gov.
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
El Niño tracker, August 2023
3
Table of Contents
Global Morgan Stanley Team ………………………………………………………… 4-5
El Niño Weather Event …………….…………………………………………….…... 6-9
Status Quo Today and Expectations for 2H23 ……………………………………… 10-11
Weather Implications: Intensity Matters …............................................................ 12-16
Framing the Impact …………................................................................................. 17-52
•Global Economics……………………………………………………….………….. 17-20
•EM Rates ………………………………………………………………….………… 21-24
•Latam Economics & Credit ……………………………………………………...... 25-28
•India Economics …..…………………………………………………….……….… 29-30
•Commodities ..................................................................................................... 31-33
•ESG ................................................................................................................... 34-35
•Equities
•Agriculture ……………….……………............................................ 37-37
•Proteins, Food & Beverages .......................................................... 38-39
•Chemicals …………………………………………………..…………. 40
•Utilities ............................................................................................ 44-46
•Materials ......................................................................................... 47-48
•Food Retail .................................................................................... 49-50
•Insurance ........................................................................................ 51-52
Disclosures ………….............................................................................................. 53
摘要：
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MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHElNiñoTracker:IncreasingRiskCross-SectorAnalysisAugust3,2023MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisrep...
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作者：胡杨林
分类：外资研报
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属性：72 页
大小：3.38MB
格式：PDF
时间：2024-04-21
