摩根大通-全球数据观察（英文）

免费

3.0 凡人 2024-04-28 35 11.06MB 101 页免费

侵权投诉

Global Economic Research

22 March 2024

JPMORGAN

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Contents

US: The economic effects of surging immigration 13

Europe: Bank CRE problems unlikely to impact

growth 15

ECB: A demand-driven narrow-corridor system 20

A BoE watcher’s practical guide to rates 22

India’s Household Consumption Survey: 5

takeaways 25

Philippines: A primer on the BSP 28

Kenya: Shifting winds 32

Nigeria: Monetary tightening needs a fiscal

counterpart 34

Global Economic Outlook Summary 4

Global Central Bank Watch 6

Nowcast of global growth 8

Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan

Economics 10

J.P. Morgan Market Watch 11

Data Watches

United States 37

Focus: More housing units to be

completed soon 43

Euro area 44

Japan 49

Canada 53

Mexico 55

Brazil 57

Argentina 59

Andeans 61

United Kingdom 63

Sweden and Norway 66

Emerging Europe 68

South Africa 73

Australia and New Zealand 75

China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan 77

Korea 81

ASEAN 83

India 87

Regional Data Calendars 89

Economic and Policy Research

Bruce Kasman

(1-212) 834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

Joseph Lupton

(1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Michael S Hanson

(1-212) 622-8603

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Global Data Watch

•Fed and ECB reinforce guidance for midyear ease; we see shallow easing

•BoJ return to orthodoxy points to rate hikes in 2H24

•Fading China’s strong start to the year

•Next week: Firm US PCE prices and Japan RS; Riksbank, SARB on hold

Normal is as normal does

Buffeted by unprecedented shocks and dramatic policy actions, the current

expansion has delivered extreme and unusual dynamics. Global inflation was

pushed to multi-decade highs over 2022-23, during a recovery in which the level

of global GDP has remained depressed relative to its pre-pandemic potential path.

Central banks engaged in a synchronized roughly 500bp policy tightening (outside

China) to contain inflation. While inflation has stepped down over the past year,

core CPI remains elevated and global tightening has not, to date, produced a period

of sub-potential global GDP growth or rising unemployment rates.

Guidance from central bankers today, however, suggests building confidence that

unusual post-pandemic dynamics are giving way to a return to normalcy. To be

sure, DM central bankers emphasize uncertainty and data dependence. And they

recognize the possibility of lasting changes in performance—notably in the

supply-side shifts incorporated in recent US (positive) and Western European

(negative) central bank forecasts. But commentary and guidance have recently

centered on a return to a “normal” in which gravitational forces return inflation to

2% (without damage to labor markets) and policy rates adjust toward neutral.

Central bankers have, in turn, encouraged markets to embrace soft-landing

optimism.

While the likelihood of a soft-landing outcome has increased, we are less

optimistic that the Fed and ECB can deliver the substantial easing currently

anticipated by markets and our bottom-up forecasts (Figure 1). In this regard, two

assessments presented by Chair Powell this week are likely to be tested as the Fed

and ECB express more conviction in a midyear start to easing.

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

%p.a.; both scales; JPM 4Q25 fcst in parentheses

Figure 1: Market-implied policy rates

2Q24

4Q24

2Q25

4Q25

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

ECB (2.0)

BoE (3.0)

Fed (3.75)

-2

18 19 20 21 22 23 24

%, ar

Figure 2: DM goods price indicators

DI, sa

Source: S&P Global, national sources, J.P. Morgan

US cons.

imp. prices

(ex autos, 6m)

Core CPI (3m)

Mfg output

price PMI

See page 98 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

Bruce Kasman (1-212) 834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

Global Economic Research

Global Data Watch

22 March 2024

JPMORGAN

•Don’t get carried away by momentum. Underlying

Chair Powell’s confidence that inflation is on a bumpy

path to return to 2% is an extrapolation of recent trends

where goods price deflation continues and is complement-

ed by a drop in rent of shelter. By contrast, our focus on

global impulses suggests goods price deflation is ending

and that this shift will broadly offset the disinflationary

impulse of moderating rent of shelter (Figure 2).

•Forecasting wage and “supercore” services is more com-

plicated, but we are less dismissive of the early-year firm-

ing than the Chair. We look for a 0.3%m/m rise in the

February supercore PCE next week and see US wage and

core service price inflation remaining at about a 4%ar

during 1H24.

•Catch a rising star. The Fed’s SEP nudged its long-term

rate forecast higher, a development aligned with the rise

in GDP growth and the median policy rate in 2025-26.

However, Chair Powell downplayed easing financial con-

ditions and asserted that the Fed’s policy continues to

weigh on economic activity. The 525bp change in policy

over 2022-23 dragged heavily on activity, but this compo-

nent of monetary transmission appears to be fading fast—

a point brought home by the recent stabilization in hous-

ing activity and moderating tightening in bank lending

standards. The sustained drag from the current level of

rates is less easy to tie down (Figure 3). Real rates are

high relative to last cycle’s norms, but there are many rea-

sons to view the post-GFC environment, in which power-

ful disinflationary drags—from deleveraging, fiscal tight-

ening, and regulatory change—depressed neutral rates, as

unusual.

-3

-1

-2

-1

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

%-pt change over 12 months

Figure 3: US real policy rate and unemployment rate

%, sa

Source: BEA, BLS, J.P. Morgan, fed funds rate deflated by 36m ar change in core PCE

Real fed funds

U-rate

Viewed from a broader historical perspective, the current lev-

el of real rates is not unusually high and stands well below the

3% level that has been historically associated with recession.

Importantly, any consideration of the current neutral rate is

colored by the Fed’s guidance that rates will be moving mate-

rially lower. Expectations that policy rates will follow (or per-

haps exceed) any coming slide in inflation and not generate

labor market easing is clearly diminishing the drag of the cur-

rent policy stance.

BoJ: a return to orthodoxy

While the Fed is biased to a return to previous norms, the BoJ

signaled its confidence in Japan’s exit from a quarter century

of deflation this week. It removed all major unconventional

policy measures, exiting NIRP and abolishing YCC. Gover-

nor Ueda emphasized a return to an orthodox monetary

framework with the policy rate as the primary tool. While the

decision was wrapped in dovish near-term guidance, we do

not expect a one-and-done move. Incoming data suggest firm

underlying price momentum. And while the manufacturing

sector is contracting this quarter, March surveys point to a

midyear lift. We look for a jump in February retail sales next

week to harken the beginning of a rebound in consumption.

Pressure on the yen should reinforce the case for further hikes

this year. While previous episodes of yen weakness have been

met by currency intervention, Ueda’s comments this week

suggested that currency moves that impacted the BoJ’s out-

look assessment could lead to a policy response. In this case,

the BoJ would likely hike earlier to avoid sparking further

household capital outflows. In all, we expect the BoJ to hike

25bp in July and December.

ECB and BoE tilt dovish

Dovish signals came from Western European central banks as

well this week. As the Swiss National Bank kicked off the

DM easing cycle, the ECB strengthened its signal for a June

cut. The BoE meeting saw two hawkish dissenters drop their

votes for higher rates. Although the ECB is inclined to begin

easing at midyear, President Lagarde warned that subsequent

cuts are data-dependent. In this regard, the data are biased in

the direction of a limited easing. The final February HICP

report confirmed that inflation firmed at the start of the year

with surprising strength in services. Separately, the flash

March PMI moved upwards, consistent with our forecast for a

1H24 growth rebound. While not challenging the ECB’s GDP

forecast, surveys point to steady hiring—a challenge to their

forecast for a productivity revival. For the BoE, risks have

shifted earlier from communication but we continue to expect

the first ease in August. Slow progress is expected on services

inflation and this week’s flash PMI reinforced upside risks to

growth.

DM diversity in easing timing

Outside of the G4, there is more diversity in DM central bank

guidance. Australia’s February labor market data were strong

and the RBA does not see policy as overly restrictive—devel-

opments that point to a later start to the easing process than

current market pricing. Norges Bank is hawkish among West-

ern European central banks and guided toward a September

rate cut this week. Despite a weaker core inflation forecast,

FX concerns dominate the policy debate. This stands in con-

trast with the Riksbank, which may signal an elevated chance

Bruce Kasman (1-212) 834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com

Global Economic Research

22 March 2024

JPMORGAN

of a May cut next week given Sweden’s recessionary dynam-

ics. In Canada, core inflation measures surprised lower for

February. That would put more risk toward an April cut given

the weak growth backdrop if not for earlier hawkish BoC

rhetoric; we see a firm case for cutting in June.

China: Lifting but not celebrating

China Jan-Feb activity data were strong with broad-based sur-

prises delivered in IP, infrastructure investment, and retail

spending (Figure 4). While prompting an upward revision to

current quarter growth to 6.6% (q/q, saar), we maintain a cau-

tious attitude for the coming quarters and still anticipate

growth cooling toward a 4%ar. Although solid global demand

should sustain China’s export and factory output growth,

there is less confidence that domestic demand will deliver

solid gains. Weakness in the property sector persists alongside

sustained deflation. As a result of declining GDP prices, cor-

porate profits remain under pressure. With household income

expectations still depressed and the survey-based unemploy-

ment rate moving higher, the consumption pickup at the start

of the year looks likely to prove transitory. Policy support

could make a difference for domestic demand—but beyond a

recent proposal to encourage electric vehicle trade-ins, there

is no evidence of a shift taking place. The bigger risk is that

fiscal and monetary supports fade by midyear and we repeat

last year’s profile, in which 1Q delivers the economy’s stron-

gest performance.

100

110

120

130

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Index: Dec 2019 = 100

Figure 4: China activity indicators

Source: NBS, J.P. Morgan

Real

estate FAI

Retail sales vol.

Private FAI

Public FAI

Mfg output

Variation also evident across EM CBs

As a group, EM central banks hiked earlier and more aggres-

sively than those in the DM, allowing for earlier and more

extensive easing cycles for a number of economies in LatAm

and EMEA. Some of those that are fairly advanced in their

easing cycles are starting to slow their pace as they approach

their terminal rates. For others who have yet to start cutting

rates, the prospect of a shallow Fed easing cycle may influ-

ence the timing or extent of easing by their respective central

banks.

This week Banxico kicked off its easing cycle with a 25bp

cut, but unexpectedly guided toward a steady pace of further

easing at upcoming meetings. We now expect the current 11%

policy rate to reach 9.5% at end-2024 and 7.5% at end-2025.

Much weaker near-term growth (we revised 1Q to -0.5%ar

from 3%) is supporting a dovish stance. Colombia’s BanRep

accelerated its easing pace with a 50bp move this week.

Following this week’s upside surprise to inflation in South

Africa, we shifted the start to the SARB’s shallow easing

cycle from May to September, postponing a third rate cut to

next year. In Israel, inflation momentum is rising as the econ-

omy rebounds from the war shock. We still expect the BoI to

cut a further 75bp this year, but firming inflation skews risks

toward fewer cuts.

We continue to expect rate cuts by EM Asian central banks to

follow those by the Fed. Recent performance reinforces this

view as export growth has been easing, evidenced most

recently in Korea’s flash trade data for March. Moreover, the

transmission to household income from the capital-intensive

tech sector has been limited. Easing household incomes have

helped pull down core services inflation across much of the

region. Risks to this view come from stronger China growth

and an upward bias for commodity prices—particularly oil.

Indicative of these risks, a jump in Taiwan's inflation led to a

surprise 12.5bp rate hike by the CBC this week.

Meanwhile, Brazil and Peru have turned more cautious as

their easing cycles advance. As we anticipated, BCB cut 50bp

but only committed to another 50bp in May; policy should be

data dependent thereafter. Peru’s BCRP paused, but we expect

additional easing in May.

Türkiye: CBRT surprises with 500bp hike

The CBRT front-loaded a 500bp rate hike, taking the policy

rate to 50% this week, in response to a deterioration in the

inflation outlook and a decline in FX reserves. The CBRT

also set the overnight lending rate at 53%, doubling the width

of the interest rate corridor to ±300bp. The timing of the deci-

sion just ahead of the March municipal elections, alongside

hawkish guidance, sends a strong signal that the CBRT is pre-

pared to hike again if needed. We also believe the CBRT is in

no rush to ease policy and we look for rate cuts to begin in

4Q24. We maintain our end-2024 policy rate forecast of 45%

and this commitment to fight inflation puts downward risks to

our end-2024 inflation forecast of 44.7%.

研报加载中……请稍候！
如果长时间未打开，您也可以点击刷新试试。

下载研报到电脑，查找使用更方便

立即下载

摘要：

GlobalEconomicResearch22March2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comContentsUS:Theeconomiceffectsofsurgingimmigration13Europe:BankCREproblemsunlikelytoimpactgrowth15ECB:Ademand-drivennarrow-corridorsystem20ABoEwatcher’spracticalguidetorates22India’sHouseholdConsumptionSurvey:5takeaways25Philippines:Apri...

展开>> 收起<<

摩根大通-全球数据观察（英文）.pdf

共101页,预览10页

还剩页未读，继续阅读