BofA Global Research-The Flow Show If the dove don’t fit…-107692524
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Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to
significant risk and are
not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial
resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.
>> Employed by a non
-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst
under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take
responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securit
ies does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research
reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as
only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page
12 to 14. 12683509
The Flow Show
If the dove don’t fit…
Scores on the Doors
: crypto 30.7%, oil 15.2%, gold 14.8%, commodities 9.6%, US
dollar 4.8%, stocks 3.
7%, cash 1.6%, HY bonds -0.3%, stocks (equal-weighted) -1.8%, IG
bonds
-3.0%, govt bonds -5.5% YTD.
Zeitgeist
: Canada jacking up capital gains tax rates from 50% to 67%...highly indebted
Western governments
have promises to keep, wars to fund…means higher inflation,
higher yields
& higher taxation…until likely central bank bailout of public sector.
The Biggest Picture
: risk assets correcting in Q2 as “good news = good” in Q1 flips to
“
good news = bad”; April BofA Global FMS (see note) says investors most bullish since
Jan
’22 just as rate cut catalyst no longer a “lock”; bulls say nothing more healthy than
“
back’n’fill” correction; bears say watch US growth stocks (struggling to break to new
highs
– Chart 2) & HY bonds (Chart 3) to signal more sinister transition to “bad news =
bad
.”
The Price is Right
: based on price (Table 1), flows & positioning the contrarian “pain
trades
” to position for surprise bout of “bad news = bad”…long bonds-short stocks, long
cash
-short commodities, long China-short Japan, long staples-short tech & industrials.
Tale of the Tape
: weird to see simultaneous strength in tech (annualizing 21% YTD),
commodities (47%) & US dollar (16%); happened in only 5 of past 60 years
…
1969, 1983,
1999, 2016, 2021 (see ranked asset price returns by decade
– Charts 4-10)…years of
stimulus
-induced booms (Reagan “twin deficits” in ‘83, COVID in ‘21), bubbles (‘99) &
inflection (
’69…start of stagflation, ’16…onset of de-globalization).
Chart 2: The Belly of the Beast
S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG)
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
More on page 2…
Dec'21 Mar'24
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
'17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
S&P 500 Growth (SPYG)
18 April 2024
Investment Strategy
Global
Michael Hartnett
Investment Strategist
BofAS
+1 646 855 1508
michael.hartnett@bofa.com
Elyas Galou
>>
Investment Strategist
BofASE (France)
+33 1 8770 0087
elyas.galou@bofa.com
Anya Shelekhin
Investment Strategist
BofA
S
+1 646 855 3753
anya.shelekhin@bofa.com
Myung
-Jee Jung
Investment Strategist
BofAS
+1 646 855 0389
myung
-jee.jung@bofa.com
Chart 1: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator
Drops to 5.0 from 5.2
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicator
identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is
intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be
used for reference purposes or as a measure of
performance for any financial instrument or contract
, or
otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other
purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA
Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as
a benchmark.
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Extreme
Bullish
Extreme
Bearish
Sell
Buy
4
6
10
0
8
2
5.0
Accessible version
Timestamp: 18 April 2024 10:36PM EDT
CR
2
The Flow Show
| 18 April 2024
Weekly Flows: $5.7bn to bonds, $26mn to crypto, $0.9bn from gold, $9.1bn from
stocks, $159.8bn from cash.
Flows to Know:
• Cash: massive tax-related outflow of $160.0bn,
• IG bonds: 25th weekly inflow of $3.8bn, albeit smallest since Dec’23,
• HY bonds: largest weekly outflow of $2.3bn since Oct’23,
• US stocks: largest 2-week outflow ($21.1bn) since Dec’22.
BofA Private Clients: $3.5tn AUM of which 61.2% stocks, 20.4% bonds, 11.7% cash;
past 4 weeks GWIM buying EM debt, Japan & financial ETFs, selling healthcare, utilities
& energy ETFs.
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: drops to 5.0 from 5.2 as outflows from stocks and HY
bonds outweigh drop in BofA FMS cash levels.
Chart 3: Ominous HY
High yield corporate bond ETF (HYG) vs 200-day moving average
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Table 1: Leaders & Laggards of ‘24
Cross-asset price action YTD, relative to 50/100/200dma, and vs ‘21 peaks
Index
YTD %
vs 50dma
vs 100dma
vs 200dma
vs '21 peak
Leaders
Bitcoin
51.5% -5.4% 12.0% 35.4% -7.9%
Oil
13.1%
2.0%
6.3%
3.5%
0.5%
Magnificent 7
13.6%
-1.2%
5.2%
13.6%
23.1%
Gold
15.3% 9.8% 13.3% 17.9% 21.4%
Semiconductors
7.6%
-5.5%
1.8%
12.8%
10.8%
Commodities
9.6%
2.8%
5.6%
4.5%
31.1%
Large
-cap growth 8.1% -2.2% 2.5% 8.6% -4.5%
Industrials
5.9%
-0.9%
3.4%
8.9%
12.1%
Homebuilders
5.3%
-3.4%
2.5%
13.6%
16.3%
S&P 500
5.1% -2.1% 1.6% 7.3% 4.2%
US dollar
4.8%
1.8%
2.5%
2.1%
9.5%
CCC HY bonds
0.4%
-1.5%
0.2%
3.8%
7.3%
Laggards
Emerging markets
US IG bonds
-0.5%
-1.2%
0.8%
2.7%
-29.7%
Russell 2000
-2.5% -1.5% -1.6% 1.2% -8.6%
Biotech
-4.1%
-4.8%
-2.5%
1.7%
-21.0%
Small-cap value
-6.5%
-10.7%
-6.7%
1.0%
-52.2%
REITs
-6.0% -4.1% -3.0% 0.9% -17.6%
Japanese yen
-10.0%
-6.2%
-6.6%
-2.7%
-25.4%
US 30-year Treasury
-9.6%
-2.6%
-4.4%
-4.8%
-33.9%
Japan govt bonds
-9.5% -4.3% -5.7% -3.8% -34.1%
Regional banks
-10.3%
-3.6%
-5.5%
-5.9%
-38.1%
Clean energy
-12.1%
-4.2%
-6.2%
-0.4%
-39.1%
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Apr'24
75.8
(vs 75.5
200dma)
68
72
76
80
84
88
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
High-yield bonds (HYG) 200dma
CR
The Flow Show |
18 April 2024
3
Chart 4: Ranked Asset Returns in the 1960s
Cross-asset returns in the 1960s
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, GFD Finaeon
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Chart 5: Ranked Asset Returns in the 1970s
Cross-asset returns in the 1970s
Source:
BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, GFD Finaeon
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969
Tech
32.7%
Tech
46.9%
Corp bonds
7.9%
Tech
28.7%
Stocks
16.5%
Tech
30.2%
Tech
7.8%
Tech
73.0%
Gold
18.0%
Tech
15.6%
LT govt bonds
13.8%
Stocks
26.9%
LT govt bonds
6.9%
Stocks
22.8%
Corp bonds
4.8%
Stocks
12.5%
Cash
4.8%
Stocks
24.0%
Stocks
11.1%
Commodities
10.2%
Corp bonds
9.1%
Commodities
8.4%
Commodities
2.8%
Commodities
10.1%
Cash
3.5%
Commodities
5.7%
LT govt bonds
3.7%
Cash
4.2%
Commodities
6.8%
Cash
6.6%
Gold
3.5%
Corp bonds
4.8%
Cash
2.7%
Cash
3.1%
LT govt bonds
3.5%
Cash
3.9%
Commodities
3.1%
US dollar
1.6%
Cash
5.2%
US dollar
-0.2%
Cash
2.7%
Cash
2.1%
Gold
-0.4%
Corp bonds
2.2%
Tech
1.6%
LT govt bonds
0.7%
Corp bonds
0.2%
Commodities
0.4%
Corp bonds
2.6%
LT govt bonds
-5.1%
Stocks
0.5%
LT govt bonds
1.0%
Stocks
-8.7%
LT govt bonds
1.2%
Gold
0.3%
Gold
0.4%
Gold
-0.3%
Gold
0.3%
US dollar
0.1%
Corp bonds
-8.1%
Commodities
-1.7%
Gold
-2.7%
Tech
-33.4%
Gold
-0.3%
Commodities
-1.8%
Corp bonds
-0.5%
Stocks
-10.1%
Corp bonds
-5.0%
LT govt bonds
-0.3%
Stocks
-8.5%
LT govt bonds
-9.2%
Tech
-0.6%
Gold
-16.0%
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Corp bonds
18.4%
Gold
16.7%
Gold
48.8%
Gold
73.0%
Gold
66.1%
Stocks
37.2%
Stocks
23.9%
Gold
22.6%
Gold
37.0%
Gold
126.5%
LT govt bonds
12.1%
Stocks
14.4%
Commodities
37.0%
Commodities
58.4%
Commodities
9.8%
Tech
27.6%
Tech
21.5%
Cash
5.1%
Commodities
22.3%
Commodities
36.7%
Cash
6.5%
LT govt bonds
13.2%
Stocks
19.0%
Cash
6.9%
Cash
8.0%
Corp bonds
14.6%
Corp bonds
18.6%
Commodities
3.2%
Tech
12.5%
Stocks
18.6%
Gold
6.2%
Tech
12.1%
Tech
18.9%
Corp bonds
1.1%
LT govt bonds
4.3%
LT govt bonds
9.2%
LT govt bonds
16.8%
Corp bonds
1.7%
Cash
7.2%
Cash
10.4%
Commodities
5.1%
Corp bonds
11.0%
Corp bonds
7.3%
LT govt bonds
-1.1%
Corp bonds
-3.1%
US dollar
6.4%
Commodities
12.6%
LT govt bonds
-0.7%
Stocks
6.6%
US dollar
-0.8%
Stocks
3.9%
Commodities
5.3%
LT govt bonds
5.7%
US dollar
-7.0%
US dollar
-5.0%
Cash
5.8%
Cash
5.1%
Tech
-5.0%
Corp bonds
-0.1%
LT govt bonds
-1.3%
US dollar
-0.9%
Cash
4.4%
Cash
3.8%
Stocks
-14.7%
Stocks
-26.5%
Commodities
-0.8%
US dollar
1.0%
Stocks
-7.2%
LT govt bonds
-1.2%
Corp bonds
-4.2%
Tech
-17.3%
US dollar
-7.8%
US dollar
-1.0%
Tech
-20.7%
Tech
-37.0%
Gold
-24.8%
Gold
-4.1%
US dollar
-7.8%
US dollar
-10.3%
Tech
-6.9%
CR
摘要：
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Tradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperienceinrelevantmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoabsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategies.>>Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofBofASandisnotregistered/qualif...
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时间：2024-05-03
