BofA Global Research-Asia Fund Manager Survey Holding ground against higher infl...

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Trading ideas and investment

strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are

not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial

resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst

under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take

responsibility for the information her

ein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research

reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of this repo

rt. Investors should consider this

report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Refer to important disclosures on page

13 to 15. 12682074

Asia Fund Manager Survey

Holding ground against higher inflation

expectations

FMS votes for an acceleration in global growth momentum

The Global Fund Manager Survey

upgraded its view of the world econom

y by the biggest

margin in the post

-COVID era, underscoring the message from our growth indicators

that

a global upturn is in motion. See BofA GPS: The missing piece 28 Mar 2024. The

market view

rhymes with our long-term bullishness, with only 23% of the panelists

seeing

a double-digit correction in global equities this year. Though euphoric sentiment

amid

rising bond yields warrants a close tab on stock-bond correlations,

bond volatilities

and market breadth to

avoid getting caught off-guard. See After the rally 11 Apr 2024.

Earnings boost to drive market upside in Asia

The

FMS assessment of the APAC ex-Japan economy

and markets, in contrast, stagnated

elevated levels, with net 45% expecting a stronger economy and 83% counting on

higher levels in the regional equity markets

in the next 12 months. Much of which is

likely to be derived from

a boost in corporate earnings as valuations tread at fair levels.

The caveat is that the upside has come at the cost of higher inflation expectations

(net

13% expect higher

inflation in APAC ex-Japan in next 12 months vs -43% in January).

Crawling back into the radar

he tone on China, too, improved on the margin. Net 28% of the panelists expect a

stronger economy over the next 12 months, versus

-10% in February, after a string of

above

-expected prints. The survey reflects a more patient wait-and-watch approach to

the

equity markets, as allocations tick up for the second month in a row. Yet, the long-

term prospects remain

uncomfortably dispirited, with calls for structural de-rating.

The

go-to market in the region

The FMS stays overwhelmingly positive on

Japan, with 7 in 8 panelists expecting

positive returns in the next 12 months, with scant calls for a peak anytime soon, as

corporate governance reforms gather momentum. N

et 70% expect the economy to

str

engthen in the next 12 months, with forex intervention expected to strike when the

USDJPY

goes past 155. Dovish remarks in the March BoJ meeting have muddled the

timelines for the official declaration to an end to deflation and the next interest rate

raise, with the third quarter of the calendar

emerging as the most likely window.

A barbell of

tech, industrials, energy, and banks

Bubble or not, t

he FMS voted almost unanimously in favor of the semiconductor cycle,

with

an overweight allocation not just for the sector, but the broader technology

complex

in general. Encouragingly though, it is no longer just a tech/industrials story, as

energy and banks join the fray.

Among markets, Taiwan pipped India to the second spot

after Japan

, while the FMS strayed away from China. Noticeably, the positive impulse of

the

Corporate Value-Up Program in Korea is yet to make a dent on market allocations.

16 April 2024

Predictive Analytics

Asia

Ritesh Samadhiya, CFA

Equity Strategist

Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

+852 3508 7907

ritesh.samadhiya@bofa.com

Aritra Baksi, CFA

Equity Strategist

Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

+852 3508 7914

aritra.baksi@bofa.com

Masashi Akutsu

Strategist

BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 7754

masashi.akutsu@bofa.com

Tony Lin, CFA

Equity Strategist

BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 8123

tony.y.lin@bofa.com

FMS:

Fund Manager Survey

Notes to r

eaders

A total of 2

60 panelists with $719bn

AUM participated in the survey.

224

participants with $

638bn AUM

responded to the global FMS questions

and 1

44 participants with $319

bn AUM

responded to the regional FMS

questions.

Survey period:

5 – 11 April 2024

How to join the FMS panel

Investors/clients are encouraged to

This can be done by contacting Michael

Hartnett

or your BofA sales

representative.

Participants in the survey receive the

full set of results for the month

s in

which they participate.

Accessible version

Timestamp: 16 April 2024 01:03AM EDT

Asia Fund Manager Survey

| 16 April 2024

Holding ground against higher inflation

expectations

Exhibit 1: Net % FMS investors expecting a stronger Global / Asia Pacific ex-Japan economy

The Global FMS voted in favor of an acceleration in the growth momentum of the global economy, while that

on the APAC ex-Japan economy stagnated at elevated levels

Source:

BofA Global & Asia Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 2: FMS opinion about the potential of a double-digit correction in global equities in 2024

Contrarians are a rare breed: despite euphoric sentiment, only 23% see a double-digit correction this year

Source:

BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey.

Notes

: Votes for ‘Don't know’ (10%) are not shown above.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 3: FMS view of Asia Pac ex-Japan equities over the next 12 months

83% of investors anticipate Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities to rise in the next 12 months

Source: BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey. Notes: Votes for ‘Don't know’ (10% | 8%) are not shown above.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

-100

-50

100

-100

-50

100

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Asia Pacific ex-Japan Global

23%

68%

Yes No

FMS opinion about the potential of a double-digit correction in global equities in 2024

035

303

Below -10% Between -10%

and -5%

Between -5%

and 0%

Between 0%

and +5%

Between +5%

and +10%

More than +10%

Apr-24

Mar-24

Expected upside for Asia Pac ex-Japan equities over the next 12 months

Asia Fund Manager Survey |

16 April 2024

Exhibit 4: Net % FMS investors expecting better corporate profits in Asia Pacific ex-Japan

Net 63% of participants expect stronger profits in the next 12 months – a top quintile outcome

Source: BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 5: Net % FMS investors saying Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities are overvalued

Net 15% of investors perceive the regional equities as undervalued, a notch above the long-term average

Source:

BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 6: Net % FMS investors expecting higher inflation in Asia Pacific ex-Japan

Higher growth at the cost of higher inflation: Net 13% of investors expect higher inflation in APAC ex-Japan

the next 12 months versus -43% in January

Source:

BofA Asia Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

100

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

100

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Net % FMS investors expecting better profits in the next 12 months

Apr-2024 = 63%

Average

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Net % FMS investors saying Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities are overvalued

Apr-2024 = -15%

Average

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

100

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

100

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Net % FMS investors expecting higher inflation in the next 12 months

Apr-2024 = 13%

Average

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