能源转型和地缘政治：关键矿物是新“石油”么？-18页

免费

3.0 babyfacer 2024-05-15 27 8.11MB 17 页免费

侵权投诉

Energy Transition

and Geopolitics:

Are Critical Minerals

the New Oil?

WHITE PAPER

APRIL 2024

Contents

Images: Midjourney, Getty Images

reserved. No part of this publication may

be reproduced or transmitted in any form

or by any means, including photocopying

and recording, or by any information

storage and retrieval system.

Disclaimer

This document is published by the

World Economic Forum as a contribution

to a project, insight area or interaction.

The ﬁndings, interpretations and

conclusions expressed herein are a result

of a collaborative process facilitated and

endorsed by the World Economic Forum

but whose results do not necessarily

represent the views of the World Economic

Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,

Partners or other stakeholders.

Executive summary

Introduction

1 Supply

2 Demand

3 Unavoidable “unknowables”

4 Roles of markets and policy

Conclusion

Contributors

Endnotes

Energy Transition and Geopolitics: Will Critical Minerals be the New Oil? 2

Executive summary

The energy transition will cause big shifts in

dependencies – away from oil and other fossil

fuels, and towards a raft of critical minerals such as

lithium and copper. Will this trading of places lead to

politically and environmentally dangerous futures?

This paper offers a broad framework for answering

this question. It also suggests that most of the

feared new dependencies on critical minerals can

be managed.

Most of the policy concerns about critical

minerals have been around fears that supplies

won’t keep pace with soaring demand and that

raw and processed critical materials are overly

concentrated in a few countries, notably China. For

most critical minerals, however, there hasn’t been

much incentive to expand or diversify supplies

radically. That is now changing, and adequate new

supplies will plausibly appear, with the probable

exception of copper, a mineral with a long history

of supply struggles.

Critical minerals and oil have notably different

demand factors. For oil, the global economy has

little ability to temper demand quickly in response

to shortages or manipulations in supply. Some big

oil suppliers are responsive to state interests when

they make investment and production decisions,

which at times helps them manipulate supplies.

By contrast, most critical minerals are used only

when new projects are built. With the right policies

in place, demand can be highly responsive.

Suppliers, knowing this, are less likely and able to

corner the market.

Moreover, most mineral suppliers respond

principally to market conditions, rather than state

interest. The risks to the global economy that

the clean energy transition will create geopolitical

tensions over critical minerals – as has happened

thus far with oil – are not as great as feared so

long as the market forces that govern supply and

demand are properly harnessed. Innovation can

also help temper demand, as has happened with

cobalt where worries about dependence on slave

labour have led innovators to ﬁnd alternatives to the

mineral and to identify new sources of supply.

This report identiﬁes an array of “no regrets”

policy initiatives that can help ensure that “trading

places” does not have adverse economic and

environmental consequences. Among these is

helping markets operate more effectively, such

as by creating more transparency of data about

transactions and the encouragement of forward

markets that will make it easier to signal scarcity

and ﬁnance new supplies.

Energy Transition and Geopolitics:

Will Critical Minerals be the New Oil?

April 2024

Energy Transition and Geopolitics: Will Critical Minerals be the New Oil? 3

研报加载中……请稍候！
如果长时间未打开，您也可以点击刷新试试。

下载研报到电脑，查找使用更方便

立即下载

摘要：

EnergyTransitionandGeopolitics:AreCriticalMineralstheNewOil?WHITEPAPERAPRIL2024ContentsImages:Midjourney,GettyImages©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretriev...

展开>> 收起<<

能源转型和地缘政治：关键矿物是新“石油”么？-18页.pdf

共17页,预览6页

还剩页未读，继续阅读