麦肯锡-航空公司如何应对繁忙的夏季和相对安静的冬季（英）-7页

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January 2024

Travel, Logistics & Infrastructure Practice

How airlines can handle

busier summers—and

comparatively quiet winters

Air travel is becoming more seasonal. What steps can airlines take to adapt to

the new shape of demand?

This article is a collaborative eort by Jaap Bouwer, Ludwig Hausmann, Nina Lind, Christophe Verstreken, and

Stavros Xanthopoulos, representing views from McKinsey’s Travel, Logistics & Infrastructure Practice.

recovery timeline. But despite dierences in

intensity and timelines, the seasonality dynamic can

be observed in most regions of the world.

Airlines have responded by shifting their schedules

to operate more routes at greater frequency during

peak periods. In Europe in 2019, for example,

airlines scheduled 50 percent more seats for August

than February. In 2023, it was 65 percent more

seats. Airlines are becoming more adept at identifying

pockets of demand and managing schedules to

Exhibit 2

Web <2023>

Exhibit <2> of <4>

Daily scheduled airline seats to/from listed region,

index (100 = median daily across year, 7-day moving average)

1EU-27, Norway, Switzerland, United Kindgom.

Source: Diio Mi

There are substantial, and mostly increasing, spreads between peak and

trough airline trac in many regions.

McKinsey & Company

F M A M J J A S O N D J

100

110

120

Europe¹

F M A M J J A S O N D J

100

110

120

Asia–Pacic

F M A M J J A S O N D J

100

110

120

Africa

F M A M J J A S O N D J

100

110

120

North America

F M A M J J A S O N D J

100

110

120

Latin America

F M A M J J A S O N D J

100

110

120

Middle East

2005 2019 2023

t them, which aids their quests for growth. But

in so doing, they can also create complications

for themselves.

Summer peaks can lead to

winter problems

In places where seasonality is strong, airlines earn a

disproportionate amount of their revenue during the

busy summer months. In Europe, for example, the

top ve airlines in 2019 earned roughly 30 percent

3How airlines can handle busier summers—and comparatively quiet winters

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January2024TravelLogisticsInfrastructurePracticeHowairlinescanhandlebusiersummersandcomparativelyquietwintersrecoverytimelineButdespitedierencesinintensityandtimelinestheseasonalitydynamiccanbeobservedinmostregionsoftheworldAirlineshaverespondedbyshiftingtheirschedulestooperatemoreroutesatgreaterfre...

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