麦肯锡-应对持续动荡：商业航空航天供应链（英）-2024.4-9页

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April 2024

Aerospace & Defense Practice

Addressing continued

turbulence: The commercial-

aerospace supply chain

A new, comprehensive supply-chain-management approach can help

aerospace companies eliminate many of the disruptions that are contributing

to a record-high aircraft order backlog.

by Emma Loxton, Henry Marcil, Mike Parkins, and Andrew Tingley

The commercial-aerospace sector has experienced

modest but steady growth since mid-2020, when

demand for air travel began to recover from the

precipitous drop caused by the COVID19 pandemic.

By December 2023, demand was back to 97 percent

of prepandemic levels, and it’s expected to grow

between 5 and 10 percent annually through 2026.1

New aircraft orders now total about 15,700.2 The

open-order backlog would take 13 years to address,

assuming 2023 delivery rates (Exhibit 1).

While strong demand is encouraging, commercial-

aerospace OEMs and suppliers are dealing with

multiple challenges in parallel. These include quality

control issues, new regulations, talent shortages,

and an increasingly splintered geopolitical

environment. One of the more pressing issues—

and one frequently cited by commercial OEMs and

suppliers—relates to persistent supply chain

constraints. Our analysis shows that aerospace

executives were about 18 times more likely to mention

supply-chain-related terms, such as “shortages,”

during earnings calls in 2022 than they were in 2014.

Their views on supply chain performance also

showed a dramatic negative shift starting in 2020

(see sidebar, “Growing supply chain concerns

among commercial-aerospace executives”).

The concerns of aerospace leaders are well justied.

Since 2020, OEMs have struggled to obtain

adequate quantities of many components essential

to aircraft manufacturing, including raw materials,

1 Measured in revenue-passenger-kilometers. “Air passenger market analysis December 2023,” International Air Transport Association (IATA),

January 31, 2024.

2 Narrow- and wide-body commercial aircraft.

Exhibit 1

+13%

Open-order backlog, thousands

Commercial-aerospace aircraft deliveries, delivery backlog, and years to clear backlog,¹ 2000–23

Aircraft deliveries, thousands Time-to-clear backlog, years

1Includes narrow-body and wide-body aircraft.

Source: Cirium; International Air Transport Association (IATA); McKinsey Aerospace & Defense Practice

The commercial-aerospace open-order backlog has grown to an all-time

high of about 15,700 aircraft.

McKinsey & Company

2000 2010 2020

–22%

2Addressing continued turbulence: The commercial-aerospace supply chain

nished castings and forgings, semiconductors,

and electronics components. In consequence,

production lines have slowed or stopped, the eet

age is climbing, and repair and overhaul times are

sometimes signicantly o target. Adding to the

challenge, many suppliers provide components and

materials for both original equipment and the

aftermarket. If they have only a limited supply of

parts and components, they may have to make

production trade-os between supplying OEMs

and servicing the aftermarket.

Too often, commercial-aerospace OEMs and

suppliers fall short in eorts to drive supply chain

resiliency because they focus on single solutions,

such as digital risk management, in isolation. While

well intentioned, individual solutions don’t fully

address the challenges and root causes. To assist,

we have developed a practical, multipronged

approach that increases focus on three areas:

— using data and analytics to get a more

complete, accurate, and predictive view of

supply chain issues

— increasing collaboration and capability building

so that all sta are well prepared to engage

in cross-functional problem-solving that gets

to the root cause

— assessing risks proactively to ensure that

companies are prepared for unforeseen

challenges that may arise

As we’ve seen from our work within the sector, this

combination of moves can rapidly decrease

shortages by more than 25 percent. It can also build

long-lasting organizational capabilities across

hundreds of employees and create an advantage in

supply-constrained markets.

An enhanced view of supply chain

health through data and analytics

Although commercial-aerospace companies have

long examined supply chain data, they can enhance

their eorts by undertaking three activities:

increasing subtier transparency, creating a warning

system, and regularly ensuring the accuracy of

their data.

Increasing subtier transparency about the most

critical supply chain issues

Leading companies are now identifying suppliers

well below the rst tier of their vendor networks and

more closely examining their operations to obtain

a clearer view of supply chain performance. We see

the best results for companies that focus on the

suppliers producing the parts and components that

Our analysis shows that aerospace

executives were about 18 times more

likely to mention supply-chain-related

terms, such as “shortages,” during

earnings calls in 2022 than they were

in 2014.

3Addressing continued turbulence: The commercial-aerospace supply chain

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April2024AerospaceDefensePracticeAddressingcontinuedturbulenceThecommercialaerospacesupplychainAnewcomprehensivesupplychainmanagementapproachcanhelpaerospacecompanieseliminatemanyofthedisruptionsthatarecontributingtoarecordhighaircraftorderbacklogbyEmmaLoxtonHenryMarcilMikeParkinsandAndrewTingleyThe...

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