麦肯锡-可再生天然气：美国脱碳的瑞士军刀？（英）-9页

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Electric Power & Natural Gas

Renewable natural gas: A Swiss

army knife for US decarbonization?

Renewable natural gas plays a role in reducing emissions—scaling it is one potential

near-term action on the journey to decarbonization.

November 2023

This article is a collaborative eort by Kester Brons, Gracie Brown, Nathan Lash, Ruidi Lu, Andjelka Milutinovic, and Greg Santoni

representing views from McKinsey’s Electric Power & Natural Gas and Oil & Gas practices.

RNG can be produced from a variety of sources—with varying costs, availability, and

carbon intensity

RNG from anaerobic digestion can be made from several waste feedstocks. The four primary feedstocks used today in the United

States are landll waste, agriculture manure, food waste, and wastewater residues, with potential future sources of supply from bio-

mass waste (Exhibit 1).

These feedstocks have varying carbon intensity and costs of capturing and processing the biogas (Exhibit 2).

Landll waste: Landlls can capture the naturally emerging biogas from landll waste, which is then upgraded into RNG. RNG from

landll biogas is the most cost-eective pathway today, as landlls are already legally required to capture the biogas and hence only

need to build the upgrading equipment.¹ As a result, landll biogas is currently the largest RNG feedstock in the United States

(representing around 70 percent of current capacity).² However, given that landlls already capture biogas and therefore have much

lower associated methane emissions in their baseline, RNG from landll biogas also delivers the least emission reduction in contrast to

natural gas (50 to 60 gCOe/MJ compared to around 90 to 100 gCOe/MJ for fossil natural gas).³

Agriculture manure: Agriculture manure (for example, from dairy, swine, and chicken) is anaerobically digested into biogas and

upgraded into RNG. RNG from agriculture manure delivers the largest emission reduction due to the avoided methane emissions that

would otherwise occur if the manure were not digested. As a result, it has grown in recent years to about 20 percent of US-announced

capacity. Most of this is from dairy farms, as those are the easiest places to collect manure. However, the current costs associated with

constructing and operating an anaerobic digestor make production costs nearly twice as high as landll RNG.

Food waste: Source-separated organic waste is anaerobically digested into biogas and upgraded into RNG. According to California

Air Resources Board’s Current Fuel Pathways Table, RNG from food waste emits between –80 and –30 gCOe/MJ, the second-high-

est emission reduction after agricultural manure; however, US supply is limited today as it is challenging to secure adequately separated

organic waste. Production costs are comparable to manure-based RNG.

1 Final federal plan requirements for municipal solid waste landfills. United States Environmental Protection Agency, May 10, 2021.

2 Renewable natural gas database, Argonne National Laboratory, May 23, 2023.

3 “LCFS pathway certified carbon intensities,” California Air Resources Board, May 26, 2023.

4 The microbial process that occurs in oxygen-free or anaerobic conditions produces methane, which can then be collected for RNG production. Anaerobic digestion and

upgrading to RNG is capital intensive, which has historically led to low adoption relative to potential.

5 Renewable natural gas database, Argonne National Laboratory, May 23, 2023.

6 California Air Resources Board, May 2023, accessed October 23, 2023.

Cover cross, plant

byproducts, and

additional biomass

Renewable natural gas (RNG)

supply sources

RNG production pathways Natural gas end users,

by sector, TCF demand (2022)

1Including hydrogen production.

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

There are several possible renewable natural gas feedstocks.

McKinsey & Company

Municipal solid

waste / landll gas

Wastewater

Food waste

Agriculture waste

(eg, dairy manure)

Biogas

50–75% CH₄

Biogas can also be used

for power without

upgrading to RNG

RNG

>95% CH₄

Power

production

Transportation

Building heat

Industrial¹

~12.1

~0.1

~8.5

~10.4

Exhibit 1

There are several possible renewable natural gas feedstocks.

3Renewable natural gas: A Swiss army knife for US decarbonization?

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs): Organic residues from WWTPs can be anaerobically digested into biogas and upgraded

into RNG. RNG from WWTP typically has lifecycle emissions of approximately 30 to 40 gCOe/MJ, leading to a more limited emission

reduction than RNG from agricultural manure or food waste. However, because it requires digestors, production costs are higher than

landll. Hence the pathway currently has limited supply.

Other biomass waste (not at scale in the United States): Cover crops ankd plant by-products are emerging as other sources of

biomass feedstock. While these sources are less established in the United States, the ability to develop and commercialize other

biomass feedstocks in a low-carbon intensity way, at scale, could expand the potential supply of RNG.

Exhibit 2

Renewable natural gas from anaerobic digestion can be made from various waste sources.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) production pathways

Current US supply potential,

million MMBTU²/year

Actual US supply, 2022,

million MMBTU²/year

Penetration,³ %

Carbon intensity range,

gCO₂e/MJ⁴

Supply cost range,

$/MMBTU²

Fossil

natural gas Landll

Agricultural

manure¹ Food waste Wastewater

603,600 890 1,200 70 95

~37,500

N/A

80–90 50–60

<–150

–30 to –80

30–40

~70 ~20 ~5 ~5

1Includes chicken and swine.

2Million British thermal units.

3Calculated as supply divided by potential.

4Grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule of energy.

Source: CARB; EIA; McKinsey analysis

Renewable natural gas from anaerobic digestion can be made from various

waste sources.

McKinsey & Company

~8 ~2 ~7 ~6

3–5

10–15

25–30 20–25 15–20

7 Ibid; Renewable sources of natural gas: Supply and emissions reduction assessment, American Gas Foundation, December 2019.

4Renewable natural gas: A Swiss army knife for US decarbonization?

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