高盛：2024年美国经济展望报告：最后的下降（英文版）

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The US economy deﬁed recession fears in 2023 and made substantial progressn

toward a soft landing. The key surprise has been much stronger than expected

GDP growth, though this has not prevented the labor market from continuing to

rebalance or inﬂation from continuing to fall.

The hard part of the inﬂation ﬁght now looks over. It was fair to wonder last yearn

whether labor market overheating and an at times unsettling high inﬂation

mindset could be reversed painlessly. But these problems now look largely

solved, the conditions for inﬂation to return to target are in place, and the

heaviest blows from monetary and ﬁscal tightening are well behind us. As a

result, we now see only a historically average 15% probability of recession over

the next 12 months.

Core inﬂation has fallen sharply from its pandemic peak and should begin its ﬁnaln

descent in 2024. We see further disinﬂation in the pipeline from rebalancing in

the auto, housing rental, and labor markets, though we expect a small offset

from a delayed acceleration in healthcare. Wage growth has fallen most of the

way to its 3.5% sustainable pace, and surveys suggest it will get there next year.

All of this should push core PCE inﬂation to around 2.4% by December 2024.

We expect GDP to grow 1.8% in 2024 on a Q4/Q4 basis (or 2.1% on a full-yearn

basis), again easily beating low consensus expectations. We forecast just under

2% consumption growth, with real disposable income growth of nearly 3%

partly offset by a 1pp rise in the saving rate. We also forecast slower business

investment growth of roughly 2% as the surge in manufacturing facility

investment driven by CHIPS Act and Inﬂation Reduction Act subsidies slows, and

ﬂat residential investment as the housing shortage continues to temper the

impact of reduced affordability.

We expect the FOMC to deliver its ﬁrst rate cut in 2024Q4 once core PCEn

inﬂation falls below 2.5%. We then expect one 25bp cut per quarter until

2026Q2, when the fed funds rate would reach 3.5-3.75%, a higher equilibrium

rate than last cycle. While we do not have any major macroeconomic shocks in

our 2024 forecast, we think the bar to cut in response to a growth scare will be

low in coming years and would not be surprised by insurance cuts at some

point.

Two key risks remain top of mind. The ﬁrst is geopolitical conﬂict and the risk ofn

Jan Hatzius

+1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Alec Phillips

+1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

David Mericle

+1(212)357-2619 |

david.mericle@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Spencer Hill, CFA

+1(212)357-7621 | spencer.hill@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Ronnie Walker

+1(917)343-4543 |

ronnie.walker@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Tim Krupa

+1(202)637-3771 | tim.krupa@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Manuel Abecasis

+1(212)902-8357 |

manuel.abecasis@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

US Economics Analyst

2024 US Economic Outlook: Final Descent (Mericle)

12 November 2023 | 5:28PM EST

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC

certiﬁcation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published November 12, 2023 [19 pgs].

a spike in oil prices. While possible, we think this would more likely be a setback in

the inﬂation ﬁght than a gamechanger. The second is the risk that something could

“break” in the abrupt transition to a higher interest rate regime. Our analysis

suggests that the risks are real but manageable, in part because the Fed would be at

liberty to cut in response next year and will have plenty of room.

12 November 2023 2

Goldman Sachs US Economics Analyst

2024 US Economic Outlook: Final Descent

The US economy deﬁed recession fears in 2023 and made substantial progress toward

a soft landing. The key surprise this year has been much stronger than expected GDP

growth (Exhibit 1). We had seen reacceleration as the key risk at the start of the year as

the drag on growth from monetary and ﬁscal policy tightening subsided, but we

assumed if it materialized while inﬂation was still high, the Fed would likely hike more

aggressively to ensure that demand growth remained subdued so that supply could

continue to catch up. Why didn’t it? In the spring the banking stress heightened

concern about raising rates too much, and by the summer it became clear that strong

GDP growth was not preventing the labor market from continuing to rebalance or wage

growth and inﬂation from continuing to fall after all.

In fact, despite strong growth, progress on both fronts has been faster this year than

last (Exhibit 2). How have we been able to have it both ways in 2023? Part of the

answer is the outperformance of the supply side: labor supply has not just mostly

recovered but more than recovered, transitory inﬂuences on wages and prices have

faded or reversed, and high prices have cured themselves by, for example, incentivizing

massive construction of rental housing. More surprising at ﬁrst glance is why labor

demand has been contained even as ﬁnal demand for goods and services accelerated

and recession fears faded, but we suspect this reﬂects the logic that drives the

non-linearity of the Beveridge curve, where extremely tight labor markets create a

feedback loop between workers quitting and employers preemptively posting more job

openings, which can heat up quickly but can cool down quickly too.

Exhibit 1: Stronger Than Expected GDP Growth Was the Key Surprise of 2023 ...

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

US 2023 Real GDP Growth Forecasts

GS Bloomberg Consensus

2022

2023

Forecasts as of Nov. 2022:

GS 1.0%, Consensus 0.4%

Percent change, year-on-year Percent change, year-on-year

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

12 November 2023 3

Goldman Sachs US Economics Analyst

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标签： #美国

摘要：

TheUSeconomydeﬁedrecessionfearsin2023andmadesubstantialprogressntowardasoftlanding.ThekeysurprisehasbeenmuchstrongerthanexpectedGDPgrowth,thoughthishasnotpreventedthelabormarketfromcontinuingtorebalanceorinﬂationfromcontinuingtofall.Thehardpartoftheinﬂationﬁghtnowlooksover.Itwasfairtowonderlastyearn...

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