东吴证券（香港）-友宝在线-2429.HK-乘无人零售之风，自动售货机龙头起航-240314

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Beijing UBOX Online Technology (2429 HK)

Equity Research·Company Research·Retail

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东吴证券（香港）

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Riding the wave of unmanned retail, the leader

of vending machines sets sail

Buy (Initiation)

Forecast & Valuation

2022A

2023E

2024E

2025E

Revenue (RMB mn)

2,519.31

2,761.85

4,090.24

4,994.10

Growth (YoY %)

-5.88

9.63

48.10

22.10

Net profit (RMB mn)

-284.53

-150.82

26.15

184.19

Growth (YoY %)

-53.80

46.99

117.33

604.47

EPS (RMB)

-0.36

-0.19

0.03

0.24

P/E (X)

-36.28

-68.44

394.80

56.04

Source: iFinD, Soochow Securities (Hong Kong)

Investment Thesis

◼ As a leading operator of vending machines, Beijing UBOX is committed to deepening

its presence in the unmanned retail industry in mainland China. As of June 30, 2023,

the company's network comprised 61,888 UBOX vending machine locations, spanning

157 cities and 28 provinces in mainland China. Among these, 87.3% were in first-tier, new

first-tier, and second-tier cities, while 89.8% were allocated to consumption scenarios such

as schools, factories, offices, and public places. Beijing UBOX's revenues for 2020-2022

were RMB19.0/26.8/25.2bn, -30%/+41%/-6% yoy. The significant fluctuations in the

company's revenue were mainly caused by the pandemic and changes in consumer

demand, with a CAGR of 15% from 2020 to 2022.

◼ The penetration rate of vending machines is rapidly increasing, and the market share

of leading companies is likely to grow. According to Sullivan's forecast, with the increase

in disposable income, consumption levels, urbanization rate, strengthening of social

distancing awareness, and continuous innovation in vending machines, the offline

penetration rate of vending machine sites is expected to increase from 8.8% in 2022 to

15.6% in 2027. The retail market size of vending machines in China is projected to increase

from RMB289bn in 2022 to RMB739bn in 2027, with a five-year CAGR of 20.7%.

Additionally, the concentration of China's unmanned retail industry is currently low. Based

on the total commodity turnover in 2022, the market share of the top five participants in

mainland China's vending machine industry was 17.0%. Currently, there are thousands of

market participants, indicating a relatively dispersed market landscape. Leading

companies are likely to achieve growth surpassing the industry through mergers and

acquisitions.

◼ Establishing a comprehensive service platform for unmanned retail, Beijing UBOX

expands rapidly in high-tier cities. As a core participant in the unmanned retail industry,

the company has leveraged its strong capabilities in digitalization and operations to create

a platform that provides value to various participants. Meanwhile, with abundant data and

advanced technology, Beijing UBOX has achieved efficient business operations and

single-machine operations. As of the end of June 2023, the number of machines in first-

tier/new first-tier/second-tier cities was 19,611/21,365/13,031 respectively. Looking

ahead, we expect that the company may seize opportunities in high-tier cities and continue

to deepen its layout in first and second-tier cities. By the end of 2024, we project that the

number of UBOX machines in first-tier/new first-tier/second-tier cities should increase to

27,000/29,000/28,000 respectively. Also, the company is likely to seize opportunities in

third-tier and below cities through cooperation with operators and platform empowerment.

We estimate that the number of machines in third-tier and below cities may increase from

7,881 at the end of June 2023 to 16,000 by the end of 2024, with the total number of

machines expected to exceed 100,000.

◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be

RMB27.6/40.9/49.9bn, with year-on-year changes of +9.6%/+48.1%/+22.1% and the net

profit attributable to shareholders to be RMB-1.5/0.3/1.8bn. We are bullish on its long-

term prospects and profit resilience, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating.

◼ Risks: Lower-than-expected business expansion, technical failures, and intensified market

competition.

[Table_PicQuote]

Price Performance

Source: iFinD

[Table_Base]

Market Data

Closing price (HKD)

14.60

52-week Range (HKD)

11.84/22.80

P/B (X)

9.48

Market Cap (HKD mn)

11,385.59

Source: iFinD

Basic Data

BVPS (HKD)

1.54

Liabilities/assets (%)

41.06

Total Issued Shares (mn)

779.835

Shares outstanding (mn)

636.616

Source: iFinD

[Table_Report]

Related reports

[Table_Author]

14 March 2024

Research Analyst

Ruibin Chen

(852) 3982 3212

chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk

-20%

-10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2023-11-03 2023-12-13 2024-01-22 2024-03-02

Beijing UBOX Online Technology HSI

友宝在线（2429.HK）

证券研究报告·公司研究·零售

2 / 18

东吴证券（香港）

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分

[Table_Main]

乘无人零售之风，自动售货机龙头起航

买入（首次）

盈利预测与估值

2022A

2023E

2024E

2025E

营业总收入(百万元)

2,519.31

2,761.85

4,090.24

4,994.10

同比（%）

-5.88

9.63

48.10

22.10

归母净利润(百万元)

-284.53

-150.82

26.15

184.19

同比（%）

-53.80

46.99

117.33

604.47

EPS-最新摊薄(元/股)

-0.36

-0.19

0.03

0.24

P/E(现价/最新摊薄)

-36.28

-68.44

394.80

56.04

数据来源：iFinD，东吴证券（香港）

投资要点

◼ 作为自动售货机经营商龙头，友宝在线致力深耕中国大陆的无人零售行业。

截至 2023 年6月30 日，公司网络拥有 61,888 个自动售货机友宝点位，遍

布中国大陆 157 个城市及 28 个省级行政区，其中有 87.3%集中于一线、新

一线及二线城市，有 89.8%集中于学校、工厂、办公场所及公共场所等消费

场景。公司 2020/2021/2022 年收入分别为 19.0/26.8/25.2 亿元，对应同比-

30%/+41%/-6%，公司收入大幅波动主要受疫情及消费需求影响，2020-2022

年收入复合增长率为 15%。

◼ 自动售货机渗透率快速提升，龙头企业市场份额有望增长。据沙利文预测，

随着可支配收入、消费水平、城镇化率提高，社交距离意识加强及自动售货

机不断创新，预计自动售货机线下场地渗透率将从 2022 年8.8%增长至 2027

年15.6%，中国自动售货机零售市场规模预计将从 2022 年的 289 亿元增长

至2027 年的 739 亿元，5年CAGR 为20.7%。另外，目前中国无人零售行

业集中度尚低，按 2022 年商品总额计，中国大陆自动售货机行业五大参与

者的市场份额为 17.0%，目前市场存在成千上万市场参与者，格局相对分

散，龙头企业有望通过收并购取得超越行业的增长。

◼ 创建无人零售行业综合服务平台，发力高线城市快速扩张。作为无人零售

行业核心参与者，公司凭借在数字化及运营方面的强大实力，创建了一个

提供价值予不同参与者的平台。同时，凭借丰富数据和先进技术，公司实现

了高效业务营运以及单机运营。截至 2023 年6月底，公司一线/新一线/二

线城市点位数量分别为 19,611/21,365/13,031 个；展望未来，预计公司将抓

住高线城市机遇、继续在一二线城市深耕布局，我们预计到 2024 年底，公

司一线/新一线/二线城市友宝点位数量将增长至 27,000/29,000/28,000 个。

同时，公司也将通过与运营商合作、平台赋能的形式抓住三线及以下城市

机遇，我们预计公司三线及以下城市点位数量将从 2023 年6月底的 7,881

个增长至 2024 年底的 16,000 个，公司总点位数量有望突破 10 万个。

◼ 盈利预测与投资评级：我国无人零售行业尚处于发展早期阶段、行业集中

度较低，龙头企业有望通过收并购取得超越行业的增长；同时，我们看好公

司在一二线城市的布局与发力，预计随着公司点位数量的拓展，公司营收

有望实现快速增长。我们预计，2023-2025 年公司收入为 27.6/40.9/49.9 亿

元，同比+9.6%/+48.1%/+22.1%，归母净利润为-1.5/0.3/1.8 亿元，我们看好

公司的长期发展空间和盈利弹性，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。

◼ 风险提示：业务扩张不及预期风险；技术故障风险；市场竞争加剧风险

注：无特殊注明，本文相关数据的货币单位均为人民币。

[Table_PicQuote]

股价走势

数据来源：iFinD

[Table_Base]

市场数据

收盘价(港元)

14.60

一年最低/最高价

11.84/22.80

市净率(倍)

9.48

港股总市值(百万

港元)

11,385.59

数据来源：iFinD

基础数据

每股净资产(港元)

1.54

资本负债率(%)

41.06

总股本(百万股)

779.835

流通股本(百万股)

636.616

数据来源：iFinD

[Table_Report]

东吴证券（香港）-友宝在线-2429.HK-乘无人零售之风，自动售货机龙头起航-240314

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