Morgan Stanley-Tracking China’s Semi Localization Large-scale AI GPU clust...-109501686

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Tracking China’s Semi Localization | Asia Pacific

Large-scale AI GPU cluster by

local vendor

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Charlie Chan

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Daniel Yen, CFA



2"#3"$%&!'"#(&% ))*++,-./+)*-

Ray Wu, CFA



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Daisy Dai, CFA



2#2$%&!'"#(&% )1++)7)/,-0.

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Dylan Liu



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Tiffany Yeh

4""!( &("

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

Asia Pacific

 

We summarize local news and our industry

checks to provide key evidence of China’s

progression in semi localization.

 !

"#$%&#&&&'()* Moore Threads has

upgraded the AI KUAE data center servers, with a single cluster connecting up to

10,000 GPUs. The KUAE data center server integrates eight MTT S4000 GPUs,

designed for training and running LLMs and interconnected using MTLink network

technology, similar to NVIDIA’s NVLink. (Toms Hardware, July 8, 2024)

+)),)-. According to

Bloomberg news, "The Biden administration, facing pushback to its chip crackdown

on China, has told allies that it is considering using the most severe trade restrictions

available if companies such as Tokyo Electron and ASML continue giving the country

access to advanced semiconductor technology… the US is mulling whether to impose

a measure called the foreign direct product rule, or FDPR, letting the country impose

controls on foreign-made products that use even the tiniest amount of American

technology." So far it hasn't been effective, but unless China can develop its own

lithography tools to replace ASML's DUV, it is a concern for China's capability for

further capacity expansion. (Bloomberg, July 17, 2024)

.(/) !: Recently, China’s Big IC Fund Phase II

has made frequent investments, successively acquiring stakes in the wafer

manufacturing company, Chongqing Xinlian Microelectronics Co., Ltd. and the new

silicon wafer enterprise, Taiyuan Jinke Silicon Material Technology Co., Ltd. The Big

IC Fund Phase II also has initiated several investments over the past half year,

involving companies such as IC design company, Joywell Semi, EDA tool

development startup Amedac, semiconductor equipment company SMIF, ceramic

material developer Genori, EDA tool company Nine Cube, IP supplier KNL,01

')12+3 and CMOS millimeter-wave radar SoC chip company

Calterah. (Trendforce, 19 July, 2024)

+,4 We think further restrictions on Global equipment players

should be positive to China SPE players, as they could be able to gain more market

share for those key projects. We like )2&&567%*+83, '129::&%5*++3 and

';2';*<3*We also like local EDA vendors like 1,-

- 26&%59=*+8), because besides equipment, EDA is also one of the

bottlenecks to achieving China semiconductor localization.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

Research as only a single factor in making their investment

decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures,

refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this

report.

+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered

with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member

and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on

communications with a subject company, public appearances

and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Key Takeaways

China continues its own AI ecosystem development

Concerns rising on potential US further restriction of semi equipment.

Recent Big IC fund investment focus more on upstream vendors

July 29, 2024 08:57 PM GMT





Monthly Performance and Catalysts

<),4 Espressif +26.8%; Silan Micro +15.0%; SICC +6.7%;

,4 ASMPT -22.8%; Shanghai Anlogic -17.3%; ACM Research -14.4%

During the past month, companies reporting positive preliminary results outperformed

the A-share market. Espressif reported its 2Q24 preliminary earnings at Rmb98mn, up

81% QoQ and up 192% YoY, 30% higher than our recently raised estimate of Rmb75mn

(link). While stocks missing consensus have been punished, ASMPT expects 3Q revenue to

be down 6.4% Q/Q at the midpoint, 17%/20% lower than our/consensus estimates. The

company sees the recovery of the SEMI mainstream business taking longer than

anticipated due to tepid consumer spending, and the SMT business continues to

experience a softening market in the near term (link).

 !"#  !"9!("9"!8&!%("8&!:" "%&(;&&(:

Price Mkt Cap Stock

(loc) (US$ mn) Rating 1M 3M 12M YTD

Foundry

0981.HK SMIC 16.80 15,167 U (5.1%) 8.1% (11.2%) (15.4%)

1347.HK Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd 20.55 3,912 O (9.9%) 32.9% (20.3%) 8.8%

Backend

601231.SS Universal Scientific Ind. (Shanghai) 14.86 4,530 O (4.4%) 4.0% (3.4%) (1.7%)

600584.SS Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Tech 32.20 7,902 E2.8% 27.9% (5.7%) 7.8%

Analog

300661.SZ SG Micro Corp. 79.35 5,114 O (5.9%) 10.5% (8.8%) (10.9%)

Equipment

ACMR.O ACM Research Inc 18.74 1,109 O (14.4%) (30.7%) 52.4% (4.1%)

688012.SS Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 146.78 12,537 O2.2% 8.7% 7.2% (4.4%)

0522.HK ASMPT Ltd 79.85 4,067 O (22.8%) (21.2%) 0.8% 7.8%

002371.SZ NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd 331.95 24,276 O3.9% 5.8% 19.5% 35.1%

Smartphone Semis

300782.SZ Maxscend Microelectronics Co Ltd 74.67 5,498 U (8.1%) (16.7%) (35.3%) (47.0%)

603501.SS Will Semiconductor Co Ltd Shanghai 103.93 17,426 O3.8% 7.5% 2.4% (2.6%)

603160.SS Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd 62.58 3,934 E (8.7%) 3.8% 14.6% (9.4%)

Consumer Semis

688018.SS Espressif Systems 104.66 1,633 O26.8% 39.3% 15.9% 42.3%

300327.SZ Sino Wealth Electronic 19.46 918 E (2.8%) (0.9%) (33.0%) (14.6%)

Cloud Semis

688008.SS Montage Technology Co Ltd 58.23 9,168 O3.4% 14.7% (0.8%) (0.9%)

Memory

603986.SS GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc 84.41 7,771 E (9.4%) 7.3% (24.5%) (8.6%)

Power Semis/SiC

688396.SS China Resources Microelectronics Limited 38.19 6,414 U (1.6%) 5.6% (30.5%) (14.5%)

603290.SS StarPower Semiconductor Ltd 87.11 3,092 O (3.6%) (13.3%) (43.2%) (32.6%)

300373.SZ Yangjie Technology 42.03 3,139 O6.5% 13.9% 0.7% 14.5%

600460.SS Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co. Ltd. 20.35 4,671 E15.0% 6.9% (32.5%) (10.9%)

688234.SS SICC Co Ltd 52.26 3,097 O6.7% 6.5% (23.8%) (20.9%)

EDA/IP

301269.SZ Empyrean Technology Co Ltd 74.89 5,608 O (5.4%) (6.2%) (27.2%) (29.2%)

FPGA

002049.SZ Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd 52.99 6,210 U0.0% (8.4%) (41.1%) (21.4%)

1385.HK Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics 11.42 1,195 E (6.9%) 9.8% (44.7%) (19.0%)

688107.SS Shanghai Anlogic Infotech Co Ltd 22.02 1,217 E (17.3%) (7.7%) (58.9%) (40.1%)

CSI 300 3409.29 -2.0% -4.9% -12.6% -0.6%

Performance

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 &BC&&(C"!(&(&#



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 !# D/"(&!0+ !"9!("9"!8&!%("

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

FPGA

EDA/IP

Power Semis/SiC

Memory

Foundry

Analog

Consumer Semis

Smartphone Semis

Backend

Cloud Semis

Equipment

&!("<4"8=>&!'"4""!( #?&"<9!("!"&8@+*+.+7#A9"!8&!%("&

'!""&88!"!"#4" &BC&&(C"!(&(&#

 !$# E"&(:0+ !"9!("9"!8&!%("

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Starpower

Maxscend

CR Micro

Gigadevice

Hua Hong

SSE Composite Index

SMIC

USI

Will Semi

Goodix

Naura

&!("<4"8=>&!'"4""!( #?&"<9!("!"&8@+*>+.+7#A9"!8&!%("&

'!""&88!"!"#4" &BC&&(C"!(&(&#

 !%# F!""! "%&(;&&(:9"!8&!%("!"C

100

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Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24

Equipment, EDA & IP Foundry & Backend IC Design Power Semi & SiC

May 15:

Hisilicon

restricted

Aug 20:

Huawei rule

tightened

Apr 9:

Phytium added

to Entity List

Aug 12:

EDA tools

for GAA

restricted

Oct 7:

Export control of

advanced semi

equipment for

memory and

foundry

Oct 17:

China AI GPU

vendors added

to Entity list

&!("<4"8=>&!'"4""!( #?&"<GC("C!"&8@+->+.+7#A9"!8&!%("&'!""&88!"!"#4" &BC&&(C"!(&(&#

Catalysts and key events:

• 7th Aug: ACM Research 2Q24 result and earnings call

• 8th Aug: Empyrean Technology 2Q24 result

• 12th Aug: SMIC 2Q24 result (estimate)

• 22rd Aug: AMEC 2Q24 result

• 27th Aug: Naura Technology 2Q24 result

• 28 – 30 Aug: PCIM Asia 2024 (International Exhibition and Conference on Power

Electronics, Intelligent Motion, Renewable Energy, and Energy Management),

Shenzhen, China.

&'! ()*+,,'-.

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MTrackingChina’sSemiLocalization|AsiaPacificLarge-scaleAIGPUclusterbylocalvendorCharlieChan!"#$%&!'"#(&%))*++,-./0,+1DanielYen,CFA...

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Morgan Stanley-Tracking China’s Semi Localization Large-scale AI GPU clust...-109501686.pdf

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