煤炭开采行业研究简报：降雨致印尼出口短期受限，海运煤价短期支撑明显-240817-国盛证券-11页

VIP专享

3.0 复利王子 2024-08-29 89 16 716.52KB 11 页免费

侵权投诉

 | 



gszqdatemark





 2024 816 

79.68 / 0.02 /+0.03%WTI  76.65 

/ 0.19 /-0.25% LNG 

12.85 / 1.12 /-8.0% TTF 

 39.45 / 1.21 /-3.0% HH 

 2.12 / 0.02 /-0.9%

 ARA 6000K 124.0 / 0.7 /-0.6%

6000KFOB 146.8 / 0.8 /+0.5%

IPE  116.5 / 0.3 /+0.2%

 sxcoal 



 SMM 812 

 TTF  42.86 / 12 

 Sudzha 

 2022 



 LNG  8 LNG

 LNG 



 2023 8

 2021~2022 

2023 

 5

















 24Q1 



 H/







 24 

24Q2 













S0680520070001

zhangjinming@gszq.com



󰄅

S0680524070012

liuliyu@gszq.com



1

 2024-08-11

2

 2024-08-11

3 BP 2024 2024-

08-09







EPS







2023A

2024E

2025E

2026E

2023A

2024E

2025E

2026E

601898.SH





1.47

1.62

1.71

1.79

7.60

8.35

7.92

7.58

601088.SH





3.00

3.05

3.14

13.20

13.30

13.28

12.91

601225.SH





2.19

2.13

2.30

2.41

11.50

11.36

10.54

10.08

600985.SH





2.31

2.36

2.43

2.57

7.70

6.06

5.89

5.56

601918.SH





0.81

0.84

0.96

1.12

10.40

10.26

9.01

7.72

601001.SH





1.97

2.10

2.24

2.36

7.60

7.29

6.87

6.52

601666.SH





1.62

1.54

1.78

1.99

8.20

6.67

5.76

5.18

Wind

-20%

-6%

22%

36%

50%

2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08



300

2024 08 17

年月日

gszgszqdqdaatteemmaarrkk

P.2 



1. ................................................................................................................................ 3

2. ................................................................................................................................... 4

3. ............................................................................................................................ 6

4. .................................................................................................... 7

5. ......................................................................................................................... 8

6. ........................................................................................................................................ 10



 1 /..................................................................................................... 3

 2 WTI /........................................................................................................ 3

 3 /................................................................................................................... 3

 4 OPEC+/ ........................................................................................................... 3

 5  TTF / ...................................................................................... 4

 6  HH /.................................................................................... 4

 7  LNG / ......................................................................................... 4

 8 // .............................................................................. 4

 9 % .................................................................................................................... 5

 10 TWh .................................................................................................................. 5

 11 bcf/d ................................................................................................................. 5

 12 bcf .................................................................................................................... 5

 13 bcf .................................................................................................................... 5

 14  ..................................................................................................................... 5

 15 6000K/ ......................................................................................... 6

 16 IPE / .................................................................................. 6

 17  ARA 6000K/ .................................................................................... 6

 18 /................................................................................................................. 6

 19  .............................................................................................................. 7

 20  ......................................................................................................................... 7

 21  .................................................................................................................. 7

 22  .................................................................................................................. 7

 23  .................................................................................................................. 7

 24  ......................................................................................................................... 7

 25  ................................................................................................ 8

 26  ........................................................................................................... 8

 27  .................................................................................................... 8

 28  .................................................................................................... 8

 29  ................................................................................................ 8

 30  ................................................................................................ 8

 31  ................................................................................................ 9

 32  ................................................................................................ 9

 33  .................................................................................................................. 9

 34  .................................................................................................................. 9

 35  ................................................................................................................... 10

2024 08 172024 08 17

年月日年月日

gszgszqdqdaatteemmaarrkk

P.3 

1.

1/

2WTI /

Wind

3/



2024/8/16

VS T-1

VS T-7

VS T-30

VS 2023/8/16



79.68

-1.36

0.02

-5.40

-4.44

WTI 

76.65

-1.51

-0.19

-6.20

-3.74

Wind

4OPEC+/

May 2024

Supply

Jun 2024

Supply

May Prod vs

Target

Jun-2024

Implied Target¹

Sustainable

Capacity²

Algeria

0.9

0.91

0.99

Congo

0.26

-0.02

0.28

0.27

Equatorial Guinea

0.06

0.05

-0.02

0.07

0.06

Gabon

0.22

0.05

0.17

0.22

Iraq

4.3

4.26

0.26

4.87

Kuwait

2.49

2.48

0.07

2.41

2.88

Nigeria

1.28

1.32

-0.18

1.5

1.42

Saudi Arabia

9.03

8.85

-0.13

8.98

12.11

UAE

3.25

3.28

0.37

2.91

4.28

Total OPEC-94

21.79

21.63

0.4

21.22

27.1

Iran5

3.35

3.8

Libya5

1.19

1.23

Venezuela5

0.88

0.89

0.87

Total OPEC

27.21

27.06

Total Non-OPEC

14.25

14.38

0.17

12.62

15.17

OPEC+ 18 in Nov

2022 deal5

34.48

34.43

0.58

33.85

40.67

Total OPEC+

41.46

41.44

48.17

IEA

100

120

140

1/1 2/2 3/5 4/6 5/8 6/9 7/11 8/12 9/13 10/15 11/16 12/18

2021202220232024

100

120

140

1/1 2/2 3/5 4/6 5/8 6/9 7/11 8/12 9/13 10/15 11/16 12/18

2021202220232024

2024 08 172024 08 17

年月日年月日

研报加载中……请稍候！
如果长时间未打开，您也可以点击刷新试试。

下载研报到电脑，查找使用更方便

免费 16人已下载

立即下载

摘要：

|gszqdatemark202481679.68/0.02/+0.03%WTI76.65/0.19/-0.25%LNG12.85/1.12/-8.0%TTF39.45/1.21/-3.0%HH2...

展开>> 收起<<

煤炭开采行业研究简报：降雨致印尼出口短期受限，海运煤价短期支撑明显-240817-国盛证券-11页.pdf

共11页,预览4页

还剩页未读，继续阅读