JPMorgan Econ FI-China Weak domestic auto demand continued in July-109868720
VIP专享
Asia Pacific Economic Research
15 August 2024
JPMORGAN
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Emerging Markets Asia, Economic
and Policy Research
Ji Yan
(852) 2800-7673
ji.yan@jpmorgan.com
Haibin Zhu
(852) 2800-7039
haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com
Grace Ng
(852) 2800-7002
grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com
Tingting Ge
(852) 2800-0143
tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch
•Automobile production fell in oya terms for the first time since July 2023
•Auto retail sales value fell further amid soft domestic demand
•Auto exports remained solid
China’s automobile production fell in oya terms for the first time since July
2023. China’s auto production (NBS, units) fell 2.4%oya in July (vs +1.8%oya
in June). Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that July auto production fell 3.4%m/m
sa. The sequential growth trend turned negative, as production fell 5.5%3m/3m
saar in July. NEV production remained solid, rising 27.8%oya, or +2.0%m/m sa,
by our estimate. In value-added terms, automobile sector VAI rose 4.4%oya in
July (vs +6.8%oya in June), compared with overall IP growth of 5.1%oya. Note
that this was the first time since Jan-Feb 2023 that auto sector VAI underperformed
the overall industrial production. On fixed asset investment (FAI), auto sector FAI
grew 5.0%oya in Jan-July (vs 6.5%oya in Jan-June), outperforming overall FAI
growth of 3.6%oya, yet underperforming manufacturing FAI growth of 9.3%oya.
Retail sales value fell further amid soft domestic demand. NBS auto retail sales
(value) fell 4.9%oya in July, following a 6.2%oya decline in June. For reference,
total nominal retail sales came in modestly above expectations, growing 2.7%oya
in July (vs +2.0%oya in June). Seasonally adjusted, we estimate that July auto retail
sales value fell 1.3%m/m sa in July, with the sequential trend falling 6.0%3m/3m
saar. Meanwhile, CAAM auto domestic sales (units) fell 10.1%oya in July, falling
3.2%m/m sa by our estimate. It seems that recent policy measures to boost auto
demand are yet to have an effect. Also, prices continued to deteriorate. Our equity
team estimates that industry pricing discounts further widened to 16.6% in July (vs
16.1%oya in June), a record-high since 2016 (see China Auto Driver). Meanwhile,
channel inventory widened to 1.50 months in July from 1.40 months in June, partly
due to seasonality. On the positive side, domestic NEV sales (units) growth
continued to outperform, rising 30.7%oya in July, with penetration up from 46.6%
in June to 49.5% in July.
Automobile exports remained solid. In unit terms, Customs reported 26.2%oya
growth of auto exports in July, following 19.3%oya growth in June. In value terms,
auto exports grew 13.8%oya in July, following 12.6%oya growth in June.
However, the sequential trend turned negative, as the auto exports value edged
down 4.8%3m/3m saar in July, and a similar trend was also observed in CAAM
data. This was possibly due to seasonal factors, and headwinds from the tariff hikes
in the EU. For the first seven months combined, CAAM data suggest that auto
exports rose 28.8%oya, and China remains the largest auto exporter in 2024 so far.
Meanwhile, NEV exports rose 1.7%oya in July (vs +10.6%oya in June), compared
with 19.6%oya growth of total auto exports (units). The share of NEV in total auto
exports rose from 17.8% in June to 22.0% in July.
High-frequency data send mixed signals on auto production and weakness in
wholesale into early August. The semi-steel tire operating rate edged down to
79.1% in the first week of August, compared with the monthly average of 79.2%
in July. The all-steel tire operating rate fell to 52.3% (vs 55.3% in July). Compared
with the same period a year ago, the operating rates send mixed signals on auto
See page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
China
Weak domestic auto demand continued in July
2
Ji Yan (852) 2800-7673
ji.yan@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch
Haibin Zhu (852) 2800-7039
haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com
Grace Ng (852) 2800-7002
grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com
Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143
tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Economic Research
China
15 August 2024
JPMORGAN
production into early August. On the demand side, the high-frequency data signaled
continued weakness in auto wholesale into early August.
Table 1: China Automobile Production (NBS)
unit, % change
2022 2023 Jan-Feb 24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Overall %oya 3.5 9.3 4.4 6.5 15.4 1.3 1.8 -2.4
%m/m sa -7.7 6.9 1.7 -3.6 0.4 -3.4
NEV %oya 90.5 30.3 25.6 33.5 39.2 33.6 37.0 27.8
%m/m sa -3.6 7.5 5.2 2.6 2.0 2.0
Source: NBS, J.P. Morgan
Table 2: China Automobile Production (CAAM)
unit, % change
2022 2023 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Overall %oya 3.4 11.6 -25.9 4.0 12.8 1.7 -2.1 -4.8
%m/m sa -5.6 3.7 4.2 -1.6 -0.2 -2.7
NEV %oya 96.9 35.8 -16.0 28.1 35.9 31.9 28.1 22.3
%m/m sa -3.7 8.6 0.8 3.5 1.6 2.3
Source: CAAM, J.P. Morgan
Table 3: China Automobile Sales (NBS)
RMB, % change
2022 2023 Jan-Feb 24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Retail %oya 0.7 5.9 8.7 -3.7 -5.6 -4.4 -6.2 -4.9
%m/m sa -0.2 0.5 -2.3 0.2 -0.1 -1.3
%3m/3m saar -9.9 -7.3 -6.9 -4.2 -7.3 -6.0
Source: NBS, J.P. Morgan
Table 4: China Automobile Sales (CAAM)
unit, % change
2022 2023 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Overall %oya 2.1 12.0 -19.9 9.9 9.3 1.5 -2.7 -5.2
%m/m sa 0.2 7.5 1.7 -2.0 -2.8 -2.1
Domestic %oya -2.1 6.1 -26.8 5.1 4.1 -2.9 -7.7 -10.1
%m/m sa -1.4 1.3 1.2 -0.6 0.7 -3.2
NEV %oya 93.4 37.9 -9.2 35.3 33.5 33.3 30.1 27.0
%m/m sa -17.3 16.4 11.0 -1.0 -4.7 6.0
Source: CAAM, J.P. Morgan
Table 5: China Automobile Trade (Customs)
value, % change
2022 2023 Jan-Feb 24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Exports %oya 74.5 69.0 12.6 28.4 28.8 16.6 12.6 13.8
%m/m sa -7.7 22.4 2.6 -6.4 -3.9 1.6
Imports %oya -1.3 -11.6 -14.2 -24.2 -22.7 -0.8 -6.3 17.3
%m/m sa -17.1 -9.1 -10.7 21.2 1.0 18.6
Source: China Customs, J.P. Morgan
3
Ji Yan (852) 2800-7673
ji.yan@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch
Haibin Zhu (852) 2800-7039
haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com
Grace Ng (852) 2800-7002
grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com
Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143
tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Economic Research
15 August 2024
JPMORGAN
Table 6: China Automobile Exports (CAAM)
unit, % change
2022 2023 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Overall %oya 54.4 57.9 14.7 37.9 34.0 23.9 26.9 19.6
%m/m sa 5.0 -2.8 6.8 -6.4 -2.6 0.0
NEV %oya 119.4 77.4 -6.0 59.0 13.4 -9.1 10.6 1.7
%m/m sa -22.3 42.6 2.1 -7.2 -34.9 49.8
Source: CAAM, J.P. Morgan
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19 20 21 22 23 24
China automobile production
%3m/3m saar
Source: NBS, J.P. Morgan
Total NEV
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
China value added of industry
%oya, both scales
Source: NBS, J.P. Morgan
Total industry
Auto sector
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
China automobile production
%oya
Source: NBS, WIND, J.P. Morgan. Month-to-date for Aug 2024.
Operating rate
Semi steel tire
Operating rate
All steel tire
NBS auto
production
-100
0
100
200
300
400
19 20 21 22 23 24
China automobile domestic sales
%3m/3m, saar
Source: CAAM, J.P. Morgan
Total
NEV
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: CAAM, CPCA, J.P. Morgan. Note: Month-to-date for Aug 2024.
%oya
China automobile sales
CAAM auto
wholesale
CPCA passenger car
wholesale weekly tracking
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
avg 18-19 2021 2022
2023 2024
China automobile inventory days at dealers
months
Source: CADA, J.P. Morgan
摘要：
展开>>
收起<<
AsiaPacificEconomicResearch15August2024AsiaPcfwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicandPolicyResearchJiYanAsiaPasccfEoEnmRerh15mugt20h1e4tgHaibinZhuAsiaPasccfEcnw.hRjR1ep.k5mugt20h1e4tgGraceNgAsiaPasccfEcca02h4Me.e105mugt20h1e4tgTingtingGeAsiaPasccfc,dnlR10lR10e0M5mugt20h1e4tgyJYt20h1PH...
相关推荐
-
太平洋证券-金融行业各个子行业研究方法与框架全景-240703-74页VIP专享
2024-07-09 189 -
109页PPT看懂2024视频号利润区在哪-混沌学园-2024.6.21-109页VIP专享
2024-07-13 66 -
华泰证券-战略专题研究：最新的共和党党纲有哪些看点？-240713VIP专享
2024-07-14 52 -
桃园三章 周泉-用户运营方法论-社群转化率40%、复购率45%，揭秘桃园三章的私域运营VIP专享
2024-08-04 43 -
国泰君安-“新质生产力”成长投资系列八：中国科技产业链估值：跨国比较与中国实践-240809-40页VIP专享
2024-08-10 68 -
中国看世界(1)：降息交易的历史答案-240828-中信建投-17页VIP专享
2024-09-09 106 -
蚂蚁集团研究院-IDC-上海财经大学-2024年共享善治AI智绘未来金融白皮书-240911-74页VIP专享
2024-09-12 65 -
长江证券-大财政系列8：日本150年财政四部曲之一，内治与外征-240704-34页VIP专享
2024-09-18 74 -
长江证券-大财政系列9：日本150年财政四部曲之二，化债与繁荣-240801-28页VIP专享
2024-09-18 47 -
上交所期权大讲堂2024.7-60页VIP专免
2024-10-05 161
作者：复利王子
分类：外资研报
价格：免费
属性：9 页
大小：842.04KB
格式：PDF
时间：2024-08-29
