Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 19-23 August-109914052

VIP专享

3.0 复利王子 2024-08-29 26 1.36MB 11 页免费

侵权投诉

19 August 2024

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia

Economics

Asia Week Ahead

Date

Week ahead

We expect Bank of Korea (BoK) to cut by 25bps next week, with weak domestic

demand and rising NPLs calling for monetary policy easing sooner rather than

later. The passive monetary policy tightening amid falling inflation has dragged on

domestic demand, creating a divergent economy with rising risks to the vulnerable

even as external demand remained robust.

Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged, to maintain

rupiah stability per our earlier call, with market volatility in the past two weeks

reinforcing our view. CPI inflation averaged 2.7% YoY in Jan-Jul 2024 and BI

expects it to “remain under control and within the target corridor” of 1.5-3.5% for

the year.

We expect Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its policy rate unchanged despite the

significant uncertainty surrounding the digital wallet (DW) programme after the

removal of Prime Minister Sretta Thavisin. If DW does indeed get scrapped, as the

media reports, such a move may call for more aggressive rate cuts by the BoT than

our prevailing forecast of a 25bps rate cut in this cycle, as it weighs on its growth

outlook from Q4 and beyond. As for Q2, we maintain our growth forecast at

2.2%yoy.

Hong Kong July CPI inflation is expected to stay unchanged at 1.5% YoY. Base

effects from the expiration of government subsidies on electricity in May 2024

would continue to contribute to inflation outturns.

Malaysia CPI is expected to edge up to 2.1%yoy in July, from 2.0% in June. CPI

inflation has averaged only 1.8% in the first half of the year. We are forecasting

Malaysia’s inflation to average 2.4% in 2024, while BNM expects headline and core

inflation to average within the earlier projected ranges of 2.0-3.5%. This implies a

higher average for the rest of the year, particularly as the impact of the subsidy

rationalisation gradually feeds into the inflation trajectory.

We are forecasting Singapore’s CPI inflation in July at 2.4% YoY, unchanged from

June’s report, as favorable base effects are likely to keep accommodation (rental)

and private transport inflation steady.

Juliana Lee

Chief Economist

+65-6423-5203

Kaushik Das

Chief Economist

+91-22-7180 4909

Yi Xiong, Ph.D.

Chief Economist

+852-2203 6139

Junjie Huang

Economist

+65-6423-6699

Deyun Ou

Research Associate

Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong

IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023.

UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE

APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

What you need to know: 19-23 August

Distributed on: 18/08/2024 23:47:14 GMT

7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa

19 August 2024

Asia Week Ahead

Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong

Taiwan's industrial production is expected to grow by 8% YoY in July, down from

13% in June. Exports fell by 20ppts to 3% YoY and PMI also decreased by 1.5 to 52.2,

likely suggesting a slowdown in production activities. The unemployment rate is

forecast to stay at 3.3%.

Financial condition indicators (FCIs)

Advanced Asian economies' financial conditions have diverged. FCIs of Hong

Kong, Singapore, and South Korea have rebounded from last week but remain

below the levels before the 5 August market sell-off, as pressures from markets

eased. However, Taiwan's FCI remains depressed, with its indicators across all

categories of domestic and external financial markets, and banking sector

conditions yet to abate amid a broader technology stock slump.

Week in review

China's economy stabilized in July, as we estimate sequential growth is at 4.6%

YoY in July, improving from an est. 4% growth in June. The economy may be

reaching a near-term bottom, as retail sales stabilized (albeit at a low level) and

services sector activity rebounded slightly. Meanwhile, property prices and new

home sales continued to drop, and infrastructure investment decelerated, owing to

local government finances' constraints. Achieving the government's 5% annual

growth target remains challenging at the current growth pace. Importantly,

additional fiscal policy support will be needed to bring back expansionary

government spending.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) began the first rate cut of its cycle in a

“calibrated shift to a less restrictive policy stance”, easing by 25bps in line with

our expectations. In addition, while RRR was not discussed in August’s MB

meeting, Governor Remolona said that it could be substantially cut in the coming

meetings. The balance of risks remains to the downside for 2024-25, due to lower

rice import tariffs, despite the slight upward revision of BSP’s risk-adjusted inflation

outlook for 2024, to 3.3% from 3.1% in the previous meeting, due to July’s above-

target print. BSP’s 2025 risk-adjusted forecast was lowered to 2.9% from 3.1%,

while its 2026 forecast was 3.3%. The target range for headline inflation in 2024-26

is 2-4%. BSP acknowledged that the strong Q2 GDP figures masked weakness in

private consumption—the main growth driver—as elevated price levels eroded

households' purchasing power. Consequently, the Philippine economy would

“operate at a negative output gap in the near term” as a result of the restrictive

policy stance so far, notwithstanding that medium-term growth prospects hold

firm. We expect BSP to ease by another 25bps in October to conclude 2024.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo held his final budget discourse speech on

Friday, ahead of the country's 79th Independence Day. “Policy continuity” was

again emphasized, Most of the 2025 macroeconomic targets were unchanged,

with point forecasts given around the midpoints of the announced ranges: GDP

at 5.2% (5.1-5.5%), inflation at 2.5% (1.5-3.5%), and a budget deficit of 2.5% (2.29-

2.82%). The rupiah exchange rate of 16,100 was lower than the previous range of

15,300-15,900, presumably in response to/anticipation of volatility ahead. The

2.5% deficit appears modest compared to the scale of President-elect Prabowo’s

campaign plans (we currently expect 2.8%), and is also smaller than the projected

2.7% for this year. Nonetheless, the budget proposal would only be approved by

Parliament by October, and could be subject to further revisions.

19 August 2024

Asia Week Ahead

Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3

Singapore’s revised Q2 GDP growth was unchanged at 2.9% YoY (Q1: 3.0%).

Although the downward revision to manufacturing growth was -1%, as we

expected, this was offset by stronger services outturns, particularly in wholesale

trade. From the expenditure perspective, the slowdown in Q2 was mainly attributed

to a larger drag from net trade. The government narrowed its forecast range for

2024 to 2-3%, while our forecast of 2.4% for 2024 implies a slowdown in 2H growth

to 1.9% YoY on average amid the uncertain external outlook (and high base effects),

compared to 3.0% in 1H. Singapore's Prime Minister Wong will deliver his first

National Day Rally speech on 18 August where he is expected to outline his team's

strategy for tackling short-term issues (cost of living and social safety nets) and

longer-term plans (boosting innovation and productivity).

研报加载中……请稍候！
如果长时间未打开，您也可以点击刷新试试。

下载研报到电脑，查找使用更方便

立即下载

摘要：

19August2024DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEconomicsAsiaWeekAheadDateWeekaheadWeexpectBankofKorea(BoK)tocutby25bpsnextweek,withweakdomesticdemandandrisingNPLscallingformonetarypolicyeasingsoonerratherthanlater.Thepassivemonetarypolicytighteningamidfallinginflationhasdraggedondomesticdemand,creatingadiverge...

展开>> 收起<<

Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 19-23 August-109914052.pdf

共11页,预览4页

还剩页未读，继续阅读