Barclays_Global_Portfolio_Manager_s_Digest_Proceed_with_Caution

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This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the

independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail

investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its

own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests

may be contrary to the recommendations oered in this report.

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its ailiates does and seeks to do business with companies

covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a

conflict of interest that could aect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this

report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

* This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst

All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,

including analyst certifications and other required disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks in this

publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live.

FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 30.

FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 30.

FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 31.

Global Portfolio Manager's Digest

Proceed with Caution

We provide context and perspective on research across regions

and asset classes, this week highlighting: our analysis of the U.S.

Consumer through an alternative data lens; our updated rate

call for the BoJ, now expecting the next hike in January; and our

take on the GOOGL antitrust suit.

•An Alternative Data View on the U.S. Consumer: We applied natural language processing

(NLP) to S&P 1500 earnings calls to shed additional light on key themes discussed by

corporate executives. Our analysis of the current reporting season suggests that the narrative

around the U.S. consumer is changing: corporate executives talk more frequently about a

cautious consumer and less about consumer strength. Chatter on consumer weakness and

references to a "cautious" consumer are most prominent among consumer discretionary

companies, whereas continuing general soness seems to be of concern to materials,

industrials, and IT companies. Consumers are continuing their slow move toward shopping

more at discount retailers, based on Barclays proprietary credit card data, suggesting U.S.

consumers continue to trade down. However, we think the credit card data suggest that the

consumer's state of mind is far from signaling concerns of a recession.

•Our Updated BoJ Call: The BoJ raised its policy rate to around 0.25% at the July 30-31

monetary policy meeting (MPM). In our view, the real driver of these revisions to the BoJ’s

language was not a fundamental change in logic, but a tactical shi of communications in

step with the government and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) aimed at correcting

excessive JPY weakness. We expect the BoJ will need to wait until at least the December MPM

to confirm that the next wave of service price markups is reflected on the nationwide CPI

data. We revise our base case for the next hike narrowly in favor of a move at the January

2025 MPM (from April 2025) as the outlook for the FY25 “shunto” wage hikes will gradually

become clearer at that point through hearings by the BoJ branch managers. We forecast a

Cross Asset Research

18 August 2024

FOCUS

Equity Product Management Group

Terence Malone*

+ 1 212 526 7578

terence.malone@barclays.com

BCI, US

Rob Bate*

+44 (0)20 7773 3576

rob.bate@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

FICC Product Management Group

Ben McLannahan*

+44 (0)20 3134 9586

ben.mclannahan@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Jennifer Cardilli*

+1 212 526 8351

jennifer.cardilli@barclays.com

BCI, US

Completed: 16-Aug-24, 20:59 GMT Released: 18-Aug-24, 13:00 GMT Restricted - External

further hike at the July MPM, revising up our forecast for the terminal rate to 0.75% from

0.5%.

•Google & Antitrust Laws: Following GOOGL’s antitrust suit loss and news that the DoJ may

be considering proposing a breakup of the company, we provided our updated thoughts and

scenarios. We see a range of outcomes in which between 2% and 41% of Alphabet's gross

profit would be eliminated by remedies. These could involve structural changes like divesting

Chrome (20% of search queries), Android (19% of queries), or AdWords (80% of search

revenue). We also explored behavioral remedies like choice screens with capped revenue

shares (41% hit to GOOGL gross profit), and choice screens with uncapped revenue shares

(2% hit). Note that in the remedies trial around Epic Games vs. Google, the plainti's

attorneys made a strong argument for fixed dollar revenue share and not for a percent of

revenue, as the former removes the incentive alignment between companies. This is

potentially a strong precursor to revising the search partnership agreements with OEMs,

operating system providers, and browser companies, which could lead to real query share

impacts if partners decide to change their approach. Despite this challenging backdrop for

GOOGL shares, our math suggests that we are already discounting a few of the less favorable

outcomes, but not likely the worst case scenario.

Chart of the Week: BoJ rate hike led to a strong unwind of the JPY-funded carry trade, triggering the

3rd and 9th largest 1m drawdowns in 50+yrs

Data as of August 9, 2024

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Barclays Research (see Long & Short of It: Slash and Burn, 13 August 2024)

18 August 2024 2

Barclays | Global Portfolio Manager's Digest

Events

Conference Calls & Webcasts

Date Time Call/Webcast

Please click on the links to view details of forthcoming conference calls and webcasts

20 August 12:45 pm GMT / 7:45 am EST Barclays Tuesday Credit Call

20 August 16:00 pm GMT / 11:00 am EST Cross Asset Video Conference Call with Mr. Cooper (COOP) re: Flagstar transaction

22 August 19:00 pm GMT / 2:00 pm EST Discussing Braze 2Q25 Performance with Braze Solution/Services Partner

23 August 16:00 pm GMT / 11:00 am EST Bi-Weekly U.S. Soware Investor Call - 3Q24

27 August 15:00 pm GMT / 10:00 am EST Hospital & ASC Reimbursement Call: Exploring the Shi in Ortho from Inpatient to Outpatient

28 August 18:00 pm GMT / 1:00 pm EST Rates derivatives: Bootcamp 2024

30 August 15:00 pm GMT / 10:00 am EST KOL Call at European Society of Cardiology Conference re: Post HELIOS-B data in ATTR-CM

5 September 9:00 am GMT Call with ZhongYeDa, leading Chinese automation/electrical distributor

5 September 14:30 pm GMT / 9:30 am EST Insolvency trends: What to expect for the rest of the year

6 September 16:00 pm GMT / 11:00 am EST Bi-Weekly U.S. Soware Investor Call - 3Q24

9 September 15:00 pm GMT / 10:00 am EST Barclays LatAm Corporate Credit Research Team's Virtual Roundtable with Globo

16 September 15:00 pm GMT / 10:00 am EST Lodging Post-Labor Day Expert Call with Jan Freitag of STR

17 September 21:00 pm GMT / 4:00 pm EST Fixed Income Virtual Meeting with Dollar General Management

20 September 16:00 pm GMT / 11:00 am EST Bi-Weekly U.S. Soware Investor Call - 3Q24

27 September 15:00 pm GMT / 10:00 am EST Conversations with the C-Suite in EU MedTech & Services: ONT

8 September 8:00 am Singapore Money markets with Joe Abate, Shin Kadota

30 September 14:00 pm GMT / 9:00 am EST Nestlé Fireside Chat with CEO, Mark Schneider & Warren Ackerman

30 September 15:00 pm GMT / 10:00 am EST Conversations with the C-Suite in EU MedTech & Services: Sonova (SOON)

Conferences & Special Events

Date Event Location

Please contact your Barclays Sales representative for availability.

3–4 September Media and Telecom Forum Virtual

3–5 September CEO Energy Power Conference 2024 New York

3–5 September Global Consumer Staples Conference Boston

4–5 September Global Credit Bureau Forum Virtual

9–11 September Global Financial Services Conference New York

11–12 September Yankee Financials Credit Forum New York

25–26 September Hybrids & Capital Conference London

10 October Insurance Consolidators Conference 2024 London

20–21 November Global Automotive and Mobility Tech Conference New York

3–5 December Eat, Sleep, Play, Shop Conference New York

11–12 December Global Technology Conference San Francisco

18 August 2024 3

Barclays | Global Portfolio Manager's Digest

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ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suc...

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