UBS Economics-China Economic Perspectives _China by the Numbers (August 20...-109969300
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China Economic Perspectives
China by the Numbers (August 2024)
What the numbers are, what they mean, and the outlook going forward.
Retail sales growth edged up YoY, while manufacturing and infrastructure FAI remained
resilient in July, all mainly due to a lower base last year. Property activity remained weak,
as seasonally adjusted new start volume stabilized in July vs. June but remained lower
than the Q2 average and property sales edged down further. Meanwhile, export growth
cooled YoY but real export volume remained solid. On a five-year CAGR basis, most
activity decelerated from June, suggesting growth momentum remained weak. Loans to
the real economy contracted, while TSF growth edged up on a low base. See more in our
July data comment.
!"##!
The progress of property easing measures since May, especially inventory destocking,
has been slow, and the impact has been limited. Property activity has yet to stabilize,
while high-frequency data suggest sales in 30 major cities stayed in double-digit
contraction in July (-16%y/y) and month-to-date in August (-19%y/y). We still assume
property activity will stabilize at a low level in upcoming months, but given the YTD
weakness, we lower our 2024 full-year forecasts for property sales, new starts and
investment, expecting them to decline 15-20%, 20-25% and 8-10%, respectively.
$###%
The July Politburo meeting called for faster and better implementation of existing policy
support measures, but with no apparent new stimulus. The government rolled out more
easing measure in July, including policy rate cut, using special CGB funds to support
consumption and equipment upgrade (see our comment). Given the disappointing
growth in recent months and the persistent property downturn, we think the
government may need to ramp up policy support for the rest of 2024, including
enhancing policy support for the property sector, especially inventory destocking,
accelerating government bond issuance and easing local finances to achieve meaningful
fiscal expansion after overall tightening in H1, while further cutting policy rates and RRR.
We revise our 10-year CGB yield forecast to around 2.3% at end-2024, considering
continued deflationary pressure, underlying market sentiment, the PBC’s intention of
managing the yield curve and an expected uptick in government bond issuance.
&'(())%*
A continued property downturn may further weigh on local government spending and
household consumption. In particular, a further housing price decline is likely to have
more negative wealth effects and suppress consumer sentiment in upcoming months,
while the labour market remains relatively weak. On the other hand, China’s exports
have been robust this year and may end 2024 better than we expected. Overall, we
think there is notable downside risk to our GDP forecast of 4.9% due to a bigger drag
from the property sector and a tighter-than-expected fiscal policy stance. While we
expect GDP growth to improve sequentially in H2 from Q2, we foresee lower YoY
growth.
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. +),- -./.-.+ +& (0.& &.,,0,*
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China
!H
Economist
jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com
+86-105-832 8324
I
Economist
S1460524050003
grace-zc.wang@ubs.com
+86-105-832 8335
I&
Economist
william-w.deng@ubs.com
+852-2971 6765
+H
Economist
ning.zhang@ubs.com
+852-2971 8135
-I
Economist
wang.tao@ubs.com
+852-2971 7525
'# 22 August 2024 ab 2
/JK*-,/
#
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Credit impulse (LHS)
TSF excl equity (2020 new coverage)
Share of GDP (%)
Growth (% y/y)
Source: CEIC, UBS estimates
/K#))*#
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Online goods sales
Overall goods retail sales
Catering
Above-sized auto
Nominal growth (% y/y, 3mma)
Source: CEIC, UBS estimates
/LK/.
M#
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Nominal FAI
Real estate development
Infrastructure
Manufacturing
Growth rate (% y/y 3mma)
Source: CEIC, UBS estimates
/K'##))
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Real estate development investment
Floor space started
Floor space sold
Growth rate (% y/y 3mma)
Source: CEIC, UBS estimates
/NK'.# *''.*
M#
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
CPI
Non-food
Food
PPI
Growth rate (% y/y)
Source: CEIC, UBS estimates
/OK0F,.M
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24
UBS China Activity Index
Industry & Investment Index
Consumption & Service Index
Growth (%y/y, 10-day, CNY adjusted)
Source: CEIC, Wind, G7, China Port Association, UBS estimates
'# 22 August 2024 ab 3
-!
Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
UBS Physical Activity Index UBS Expenditure Index
Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
NBS and Caixin PMI Other business climate indices
Property . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Property indicators and UBS construction index Property inventory
Fixed Asset Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
FAI by components Infrastructure
Industrial Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Industrial Production Industrial inventory
Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Retail sales Household income and consumption
Inflation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
CPI PPI
Money & Credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Money and credit growth UBS credit impulse
Base Money & Liquidity Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Base money growth PBC liquidity provisions
Interest Rates & Bond Market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Rates and yields New bond issuance
Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Exports and imports China's market share
FX Reserves & Capital Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
FX reserve breakdown Non-FDI outflows
Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
CNY against USD and basket Exchange rate expectations
Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
A/H share market Sector performance
Fiscal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Fiscal revenue and land sales PPP projects
Data Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Source: UBS
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作者：西装暴徒
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时间：2024-09-09
