Morgan Stanley Fixed-Asia Economics The Viewpoint US Deeper SlowdownRecession ...-109961567

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Asia Economics | Asia Pacific

The Viewpoint: US Deeper

Slowdown/Recession Scenarios

– What Does It Mean for Asia?

Asia is more exposed to a US growth slowdown this time around

as Asia ex China is more dependent on the US, while China is

less likely to provide the same degree of counter-cyclical

support compared with previous downturns.



Chetan Ahya



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/012

Derrick Y Kam



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

Jonathan Cheung



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Kelly Wang



5%%! :$"#$%!  &'()*+6*,;'+.

Exhibit 1:<#<=>?$#@%@>@!%

10%

12%

14%

16%

120

160

200

240

Jun-12

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24

12M trailing sum

AXJ ex China trade surplus with US (US$bn)

US share in AXJ ex China exports (%, RS)

9#ABC#$%!D#

For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,

located at the end of this report.

Key Takeaways

Slower US growth transmits to Asia via trade and financial conditions. Room for

counter-cyclical fiscal/monetary easing will also determine the final outcome.

Asia ex China is more exposed to the US. Its trade surplus with the US reached a

new high of US$380bn, while its trade deficit with China widened to US$280bn.

We do not think that China will be able to provide the counter-cyclical support to

the region as it used to, given the ongoing debt-deflation challenge.

If the US faces a deeper slowdown as opposed to our base case of a soft landing,

the downside for Asia will still be manageable.

However, US recession will mean potential contraction in exports and material

tightening of financial conditions. Policy support will not be a meaningful offset.

August 21, 2024 08:38 PM GMT



How Much Will a Slower US Economy Hurt Asia

The base case is still a soft landing for the US

economy, as detailed by our global and US economics teams (see The Weekly Worldview:

Rising Central Bank Action (12 Aug 2024), Friday Finish – US Economics: A slowing, not a

slump: what we're watching (9 Aug 2024), US Economics: Some weak July data but we

still expect a soft landing (5 Aug 2024)), and that forms the basis of our base-case

forecasts for Asia. Since the weak July labour data led to a growth scare, investors are

evaluating the risks of a deeper slowdown in the US and have become more alert to

recession risks. We therefore explore the risk scenarios of :1) a deeper slowdown in the

US; and 2) the US falling into recession and what that would mean for Asia. Our

perspective is that in a deeper slowdown in the US, Asia will face moderate downside, but

it will not be immune in the case of a US recession. The economies of Japan, Korea and

Taiwan would be most exposed, while China and India would be moderately exposed, and

Australia and Indonesia are least directly exposed though they may still be affected as US

recessionary dynamics weigh on commodity prices.

The current state of Asia’s trade cycle

Exhibit 2: E<=#FG#$HI9=##$

$%G%<=#F#=.;

-15%

-10%

-5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24

Real exports (SA, %Y, 3MMA)

Global (CPB)

China

Asia ex China

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Exhibit 3: <=9#?>>>%=>E

<=#>@%%

118

111

112

100

105

110

115

120

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Real imports (SA, Dec-19=100 3MMA)

Euro area

China

Asia ex China

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$>M

124

133

128

119

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Asia nominal exports by end-use (SA, Dec-19=100)

Consumer goods (24%)

Capital goods (32%)

Commodities (20%)

Intermediate goods (23%)

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Exhibit 5: M:9#$>#$=<>>

#?

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121

100

110

120

130

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

US real imports (SA, Dec-19=100)

Capital goods import

Non-food consumer goods import

(incl. autos)

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

Morgan Stanley Research 3

Exhibit 6: L<=##9#$#,

<=#M

134

127

128

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jun-19

Sep-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Asia nominal exports (SA, Dec-19=100)

Tech

Non-tech

Total

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Exhibit 7: M9==#>G!$$=<#F#!

?

-10%

-5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-11

Jun-12

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24

US real non-residential capex (%Y)

Private non-residential: IT capex

Asia real exports (%Y 3MMA) (RS)

9#ABC#$%!D#

Exhibit 8: <=##$G9>9$9C

F>5#E);,>!>

-30%

-20%

-10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22 Aug-23 Aug-24

Korea daily exports (%Y) first 10 days

first 20 days

full month

9#AJF#C#$%!D#

Exhibit 9: <9.;@G#@

<=##>##>$89%!

-5.9

-0.9

-0.2

-0.04

0.2

0.4

0.7

0.9

8.4

-7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0

Australia

Philippines

Taiwan

Korea

Malaysia

China

Indonesia

Japan

India

Thailand

Delta in new export orders (July vs. June 2024, %pp)

9#A#4CJF#%!C%9#C#$%!D#

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MAsiaEconomics|AsiaPacificTheViewpoint:USDeeperSlowdown/RecessionScenarios–WhatDoesItMeanforAsia?AsiaismoreexposedtoaUSgrowthslowdownthistimearoundasAsiaexChinaismoredependentontheUS,whileChinaislesslikelytoprovidethesamedegreeofcounter-cyclicalsupportcomparedwithpreviousdownturns....

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