JPMorgan Econ FI-Global Inflation Monitor July 2024 Exceptional US disinflat...-109989427

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Global Economic Research

23 August 2024

JPMORGAN

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Economic Research

Nora Szentivanyi

(44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Bennett Parrish

(1-212) 622-9003

bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

•Global headline and core CPI (ex. China and Türkiye) rose 0.3%m/m sa in July,

each a tenth higher than in June. The three-month annualized rate on core

inflation ticked down to 2.8%ar, an outcome which is tracking our forecast for

a moderation in global core inflation to 2.8%ar in 3Q24 from 3.4%ar in 1H24.

However, the composition of the core inflation dynamic in July raises a number

of questions about our baseline forecast that core inflation will end this year

close to 3%oya rate amidst rotations on a sectoral (goods firming and services

moderating) and regional (2H24 disinflation concentrated in the US) basis.

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Jul 23 Oct 23 Jan 24 Apr 24 Jul 24

Headline Core

Global CPI - ex Chn and Tur

%m/m, sa; dotted line is 3mma

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

•The anticipated regional rotation is under way, but the speed of US disinflation

has been more pronounced than expected, while core inflation pressures in

most other regions have stayed firmer. US core inflation fell to just 1.6%ar in

the three months to July. At the same time, the Euro area and UK registered

gains of 3.5%ar and EM (ex China and Türkiye) reaccelerated close to 4%ar.

LatAm core inflation firmed led by Brazil; the disinflation process has also

stalled in much of CEE around 4-5%. In a handful of countries core inflation

rates have slowed materially, close to CB targets, including Canada, the

Scandis, Chile, Peru and Czechia. Japan also saw a notable––though likely

temporary––slowing in core CPI momentum in July.

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

%3m saar

Core CPI

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics. EMX excludes China and Turkiye

EM (ex Chn & Tur)

DM ex US

•On a sectoral basis a closing in the gap between global services and goods

inflation has thus far failed to materialize. Global services prices were up 0.4%

in July and are still running at a 4.3%ar, but a pronounced slowing is evident

in the US; US services inflation fell to just 2.7% on %3m saar basis as the

concentrated early year price increases unwound and wage inflation has

moderated, While services inflation is also easing in several other DMs, the

See page 14 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

Global Inflation Monitor: July 2024

Exceptional US disinflation

Nora Szentivanyi (44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Bennett Parrish (1-212) 622-9003

bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com

Global Economic Research

Global Inflation Monitor: July 2024

23 August 2024

JPMORGAN

slowing is most pronounced in the US as labor cost pressures are easing more rapidly than

elsewhere. To this point, the %3m core services CPI has stayed stickier at 5%ar in the rest

of DM and 7-8%ar in EM ex. China and Türkiye.

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15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

%3m saar

Global core CPI - ex Chn and Tur

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics. Details on request.

Services

Core goods

Core

•There is little change on the core goods inflation front where prices (ex China and

Türkiye) flatlined for a fourth consecutive month. A deepening in US core goods

deflation (-1.9%ar)––weighed down by sharp declines in auto prices––mask a firming

elsewhere; core goods inflation in the rest of the world picked up to a 1.3%ar from 0.6%

in April. This firming reflects a combination of still-solid goods demand, a modest

firming in supply chain pressures and surge in global shipping costs. While China’s

excess capacity remains broadly disinflationary, its impulse in trading partner import

prices has faded (e.g..; US import prices from China have been flat for six months).

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18 19 20 21 22 23 24

%3m, saar

Core goods CPI

Source: J.P. Morgan. * Excludes China and Turkiye

Rest of the world*

•After two monthly declines, consumer energy prices rebounded 0.5% in July, but the

%3m rate was still down -4%ar. With Brent crude tracking a large 5% drop in August,

energy prices should remain a drag on headline inflation and––provided the move reflects

a benign supply shock––should also support household purchasing power. To be sure

there are large regional divergences as EM consumer energy prices were up a strong 7%ar

whereas DM, including in the US, prices are still down a large 8% on a %3m basis.

•Global consumer food prices have started firming again of late and rose another 0.4%m/m

(ex. China and Türkiye). The %3m saar picked up to 3.4%–– a bit above their pre-

pandemic average. Adverse weather conditions in Mexico and India have driven material

but localized spikes in fresh food prices––an upswing we view as temporary. Global

traded food prices, as measured by the FAO food index, ticked lower in July and look on

course for a larger drop in August. However, the increases in agri commodity prices in

2Q are likely still passing through to consumer prices with a lag.

Nora Szentivanyi (44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Bennett Parrish (1-212) 622-9003

bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com

Global Economic Research

23 August 2024

JPMORGAN

-6

-40

120

18 19 20 21 22 23 24

%3m/3m saar, both scales; shading is J.P. Morgan forecast

FAO food price index and food CPI

Source: National sources, UN, J.P. Morgan.

Global food CPI

(ex Chn & Tur)

FAO food index

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摘要：

GlobalEconomicResearch23August2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEconomicResearchNoraSzentivanyi(44-20)7134-7544nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcBennettParrish(1-212)622-9003bennett.parrish@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNA•GlobalheadlineandcoreCPI(ex.ChinaandTürkiye)rose0.3%m/msain...

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