JPMorgan Econ FI-Bank Data Snapshot Week of August 23, 2024-109987376

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North America Credit Research

8/23/2024

Banks and Non-Bank Financials

US Credit Research

Sector Views Kabir Caprihan, CFA Vincent Barretta

Overweight Neutral Underweight (1-212) 834-5613 (1-212) 464-0374

Finance Companies U.S. Regionals Canadian Banks Kabir.x.caprihan@jpmorgan.com Vincent.barretta@jpmorgan.com

Swiss Holdco U.S. M.C. Senior H.C. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

U.K. Holdco Australia/NZ Banks

Core Europe SNP

Commentary Japanese Banks

*GSIBs were relatively unchanged over the week reflective of the lack of news and issuance.

* Banks and Financials outperformed Non-Financials in August and now trade at the tight end of the recent ranges.

* We think some of the European senior non preferred paper looks tight relative to US GSIBS, we highlighted

the BNP SNP '35s as a bond that looks tight in the most recent spotlight.

* Issuance will pick up in September but will be comprised primarily of high-quality Yankee banks, historically European

and Canadian banks tend to issue from 12% to 13% of their full year issuance in September

*We expect news flow to be quiet over the next few weeks, the focus will be on the Industry conference

beginning in the second week of September

GSIB Issuance

($mn) 2023 Issuance 2024 YTD Issuance 2024 Forecast YTD 2024 % Forecast

GSIB Sr HC 90,250 85,750 121,000 71%

GSIB Sr Bank 29,500 31,250 18,500 NM

GSIB Sub HC 5,700 7,000 8,000 88%

GSIB Sub Bank 0 0 0 -

GSIB Total USD 125,450 124,000 147,500 84%

GSIB Non USD 5,330 7,610 18,000 42%

Yankee Bank USD Issuance

($mn) 2023 Issuance 2024 YTD Issuance 2024 Forecast YTD 2024 % Forecast

U.K. Banks 39,900 32,100 40,000 80%

Core European Banks 85,750 58,750 80,000 73% U.S. Money-Center vs Regional Banks 10-year Historical Spread Basis

Canadian Banks 38,625 22,500 35,000 64%

Japanese Banks 35,050 14,250 37,500 38%

Aussie / NZ Banks 25,415 21,850 27,500 79%

Note: LT2 15,750 11,550 - -

Yankee Bank Total 224,740 149,450 220,000 68%

Money Center Issuance Detail

($mn) 2024 YTD USD Snr HC Issuance 2024 Non USD Snr HC 2024 Sub Holdco 2024 Preferred

BAC 5,000 02,500 0

C8,000 02,500 3,800

GS 10,500 0 0 4,500

JPM 26,500 2,174 02,500

MS 19,250 5,436 1,500 1,000

WFC 10,000 0 0 2,000

Total 79,250 7,610 6,500 13,800

Regional Bank Issuance Detail

($mn) 2024 YTD 2024 Est % Forecast

Regional Sr Holdco 31,600 41,000 77%

US/Yankee Relative Value Pairs Regional Sr Bank 1,000 6,500 15%

Bond B-Bond A G-spread Basis

1m Range (range %) 3m Range (range %) Regional Sub Holdco 450 0 -

Bond A Bond B Current Regional Sub Bank 0 0 -

BAC 5.872 2034 (Sr) HSBC 6.254 2034 (Sr) 18 6/23 (68%) 2/24 (71%) Total Regional 33,050 47,500 70%

BAC 5.872 2034 (Sr) LLOYDS 4.976 2033 (Sr) 11 6/17 (47%) 2/27 (39%)

BAC 5.872 2034 (Sr) BACR 6.692 2034 (Sr) 34 26/41 (52%) 22/47 (50%) Issuer Curves

C 6.27 2033 (Sr) SOCGEN 6.691 2034 (SNP) 63 55/69 (59%) 42/83 (51%) Issuer

3s5s 5s10s 10s30s 3s5s range 5s10s range 10s30s range

C 6.27 2033 (Sr) BACR 6.692 2034 (Sr) 27 19/38 (42%) 12/48 (41%) JPM 14 15 -24 12-16 (47%) 14-18 (39%) -31--7 (26%)

C 6.27 2033 (Sr) BNP 3.132 2033 (SNP) 15 9/24 (36%) 1/48 (29%) BAC 14 16 -27 11-17 (60%) 12-18 (58%) -33--8 (26%)

GS 6.561 2034 (Sr) BACR 6.692 2034 (Sr) 29 22/41 (39%) 18/41 (49%) MS 16 16 -33 13-19 (45%) 13-19 (51%) -45--18 (44%)

GS 6.561 2034 (Sr) SOCGEN 6.691 2034 (SNP) 65 58/69 (65%) 45/82 (55%) GS 10 10 -7-14 (44%) 8-14 (32%) -

GS 6.561 2034 (Sr) UBS 6.301 2034 (Sr) 15 9/30 (29%) 7/32 (31%) WFC 18 22 -21 15-21 (57%) 19-24 (47%) -29--5 (34%)

JPM 6.254 2034 (Sr) BACR 6.692 2034 (Sr) 40 32/54 (38%) 27/54 (49%) C18 21 -16-21 (31%) 16-22 (74%) -

JPM 6.254 2034 (Sr) SOCGEN 6.691 2034 (SNP) 76 69/82 (53%) 50/92 (62%) HSBC 19 19 -19-26 (8%) 19-27 (9%) -

JPM 6.254 2034 (Sr) UBS 6.301 2034 (Sr) 26 23/41 (15%) 14/41 (44%) UBS 16 19 -12-21 (43%) 9-20 (85%) -

MS 5.424 2034 (Sr) MQGAU 5.887 2034 (Sr) 25 15/31 (62%) 14/31 (66%) SUMIBK 16 16 -13-19 (47%) 10-21 (49%) -

MS 5.424 2034 (Sr) UBS 6.301 2034 (Sr) 15 5/29 (41%) 5/31 (38%) MUFG 14 9 - 11-20 (41%) 7-15 (21%) -

MS 5.424 2034 (Sr) BACR 6.692 2034 (Sr) 29 19/37 (59%) 18/43 (45%) HSBC 19 19 -19-26 (8%) 19-27 (9%) -

WFC 6.491 2034 (Sr) LLOYDS 4.976 2033 (Sr) 3-5/10 (52%) -5/16 (37%) UBS 16 19 -12-21 (43%) 9-20 (85%) -

WFC 6.491 2034 (Sr) NWG 6.016 2034 (Sr) 3-7/6 (80%) -7/17 (43%) SUMIBK 16 16 -13-19 (47%) 10-21 (49%) -

MUFG 14 9 - 11-20 (41%) 7-15 (21%) -

Yankee Relative Value Pairs (continued on back) BACR 18 21 -29 17-24 (21%) 17-26 (41%) -58--25 (90%)

BACR 6.692 2034 (Sr) BACR 4.95 2047 (Sr) -30 -43/-17 (50%) -43/-17 (50%) MIZUHO 17 22 -15-20 (46%) 19-29 (27%) -

BNP 2.591 2028 (SNP) BNP 3.132 2033 (SNP) 52 40/60 (60%) 17/60 (82%) RY 16 19 -10-17 (92%) 12-26 (47%) -

BPCEGP 6.714 2029 (SNP)

BPCEGP 7.00299999999999 2034

24 21/38 (18%) 14/39 (42%) BNP 12 13 -10-23 (16%) 8-28 (25%) -

ISPIM 8.248 2033 (SNP) ISPIM 7.778 2054 (SNP) 58 51/70 (38%) 45/76 (43%) TD 18 - - 14-21 (47%) - -

DB 7.146 2027 (SNP) DB 6.72 2029 (SNP) 13 10/34 (15%) 2/34 (36%) SANTAN 911 -5-22 (24%) 2-20 (47%) -

HSBC 6.254 2034 (Sr) HSBC 6.332 2044 (Sr) -4 -7/8 (21%) -7/12 (17%) range = 3-month range

INTNED 4.017 2028 (Sr) INTNED 6.114 2034 (Sr) 52 46/61 (42%) 38/61 (61%)

ACAFP 5.301 2028 (Sr Pf) SOCGEN 4.677 2027 (Sr Pf) 0-16/4 (82%) -19/17 (55%)

LLOYDS 5.871 2029 (Sr) LLOYDS 4.976 2033 (Sr) 27 22/36 (34%) 15/38 (50%)

Data for all tables and charts on this page is sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan.

46,200

2023 Issuance

39,400

6,500

300

Current

1 Week

Chg

MTD

Change

QTD

Change

Y TD

Change

LTM

Wides

LTM

Tights

Fr om

Wides

Fr om

Tights

5YSector Spread

Money-Center Sr HC 5Y 94 -1 -6 3-21 164 86 -70 8

Regionals 5Y 120 -1 -7 8-19 223 110 -103 9

Canadian Bnks 5Y 79 -2 -7 -2 -6 137 69 -58 10

Japanese Bnks 5Y 97 -3 -1 3-12 151 81 -54 16

Aus sie Bnks 5Y 84 -3 -3 5-22 136 70 -53 14

UK Holdco 5Y 110 -1 -4 -3 -36 209 103 -100 7

UK Sub Holdco 5Y 155 -6 -13 9-54 344 141 -189 14

Euro Sen Non Pref 5Y 102 -5 - 8 -27 176 94 -74 8

Eur o Sub 5Y 133 -4 -32 -24 -39 195 128 -63 5

Sw iss Holdc o 5Y 133 21 25 37 -7 197 96 -64 37

Fincos 5Y 116 -3 -1 3-40 162 98 -46 18

JUL I Ex EM 5Y 92 -1 -3 3-7 137 82 -46 9

10Y Sector Spread

Money-Center Sr HC 10Y 110 0-8 4-20 177 101 -67 9

Regionals 10Y 137 0-6 -7 -30 245 136 -109 1

Canadian Bnks 10Y 101 -4 -5 8-5 154 92 -53 9

Japanese Bnks 10Y 109 -5 -1 6-7 0 0 109 109

Aus sie Bnks 10Y 111 -4 -7 6-28 0 0 111 111

UK Holdc o 10Y 146 0-7 0-37 251 133 -104 13

Sw iss Holdc o 10Y 134 0-10 1-29 221 118 -87 16

Fincos 10Y 120 3-4 5 2 165 107 -45 13

JULI Ex EM 10Y 114 -1 -5 5-3 156 103 -43 11

Diff erence vs JULI ex- EM

Money-Center Sr HC 5Y 2 0 -3 -1 -14 28 2-26 0

Regionals 5Y 28 0-3 4-12 90 24 -62 4

Canadian Bnks 5Y -13 0-4 -5 1 2 -19 -15 6

Japanese Bnks 5Y 5-2 2-1 -5 20 -7 -15 12

Aus sie Bnks 5Y -8 -1 1 2 -16 10 -20 -18 12

UK Holdc o 5Y 18 0 0 -7 -29 74 13 -56 5

Fincos 5Y 25 1 2 0 1 30 13 -6 11

Money-Center Sr HC 10Y -4 1-3 -1 - 17 23 -5 -26 2

Regionals 10Y 23 1-1 -12 -27 92 22 -69 1

Canadian Bnks 10Y -13 -3 0 3 -2 4-19 -17 6

Japanese Bnks 10Y -5 -4 4 1 -4 14 -17 -19 13

Aus sie Bnks 10Y -2 -3 -2 1-25 38 -16 -40 13

UK Holdc o 10Y 33 1-2 -5 -34 95 20 -62 12

Sw iss Holdc o 10Y 20 1-5 -4 -25 66 5-46 16

Fincos 10Y 6 4 1 0 5 13 -13 -7 19

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NorthAmericaCreditResearch8/23/2024BanksandNon-BankFinancialsUSCreditResearchSectorViewsKabirCaprihan,CFAVincentBarrettaOverweightNeutralUnderweight(1-212)834-5613(1-212)464-0374FinanceCompaniesU.S.RegionalsCanadianBanksKabir.x.caprihan@jpmorgan.comVincent.barretta@jpmorgan.comSwissHoldcoU.S.M.C.Sen...

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