UBS Economics-APAC Economic Perspectives _Asia by the Numbers (August 2024...-110084116

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APAC Economic Perspectives

Asia by the Numbers (August 2024)

 !"#!#$

Despite new easing measures in July, China's property downturn has persisted. Given

lingering inventory pressures, we downgraded our property market forecasts, and

expect sales, new starts, and investments to continue falling in 2025, albeit at a slower

rate. The weakness in property activities and prices has further weighed on consumer

and business confidence. Fiscal policy implementation has again been tighter than

planned. In contrast, real exports have been resilient. Given the deeper-than-expected

property downturn, we lowered China’s 2024/25 GDP growth forecasts to 4.6%/4%

(Prev: 4.9%/4.6%). Our forecasts are still skewed to the downside, particularly in the

event of a deeper property downturn or a significant US tariff hike on China exports.

%&'%&'(')%&

Exports from SE Asia rebounded in July, led by electronics shipments from Malaysia,

Singapore and Thailand, coupled with resilient exports of other goods. Whether this

reflects inventory adjustments along the supply chain or a sustained recovery in end-

demand remains unclear, in the context of subdued China and slowing US growth. Q2

GDP surprised on the upside for most economies. Malaysia’s economy grew strongly by

5.9% y/y in Q2. Elevated development spending and FDI supported construction activity,

while pension fund withdrawals supported consumption. Indonesia’s GDP growth

remained resilient above 5% in Q2 2024, on the back of increased investment and net

export contribution. Thailand's GDP growth accelerated to 2.3% y/y from 1.6% in Q1,

largely due to exports and tourism, even as credit quality issues weighed on durables

consumption and investment. In Singapore, stronger growth in the trade-related

services and financial sectors offset the manufacturing contraction.

*& )+

Increasing conviction that the Fed is about to pivot led to currency strengthening in

August. We update some currency forecasts for end 24/25 on the back of the rapid

market movements as shown in Figure 1. The BSP eased in August in a well-telegraphed

move, so as to avoid falling behind the curve. BI, BoT, and BoK remained on hold. That

said, BI opened the door to rate cuts in Q4, and BoK has room to ease on the back of

better growth-inflation dynamics. BoT's recent communications highlighted the risk of

tighter financial conditions. We expect 50bp of rate cuts by BI/BSP and a 25bp rate cut

by BoT/BoK in 2024. For India, we maintain our view that there is no rush to cut the

policy rate at this juncture, given the resilient domestic growth momentum, regulatory

tightening to rein in unsecured retail lending, and inflation in 2H likely remaining above

RBI's medium-term target of 4% despite base effect. That said, our baseline expectation

of a 50bp cut in the repo rate in H125 may be brought forward to the Dec-24 quarter

should above normal monsoons this year cause a downside surprise to CPI inflation.

+,-+.+'

Exchange rate 2024 2025

USDCNY 7.1 (7.1-7.2) 7.1-7.2 (7.0)

USDINR 84 (83) 84

USDIDR 15200 (16000) 15000 (15800)

USDMYR 4.25 (4.60) 4.1 (4.5)

USDPHP 55 (57) 54 (56)

USDSGD 1.29 (1.33) 1.28 (1.31)

USDKRW 1330 1350

USDTWD 32 31

USDTHB 34 (36) 34 (35.5)

USDVND 24543 24052

Memo: EURUSD 1.08 1.1

Source: UBS Note: Forecasts are e.o.p. () Forecast as of last month.

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-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

SBV

CBC

BNM

BOT

RBI

BOK

BSP

Fed

2022

2023

2024 YTD

2024 Sep-Dec

2025

Policy rate change, bps

Source: Haver, UBS

This report has been prepared by UBS AG, Singapore Branch. /012 23+323*/ / 453 31*151(

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'

Asia

'

Economist

grace-k.lim@ubs.com

+65-6495 5965

2L

Economist

wang.tao@ubs.com

+852-2971 7525

/M

Economist

ning.zhang@ubs.com

+852-2971 8135

L'

Economist

william-w.deng@ubs.com

+852-2971 6765

2&N

Economist

tanvee.guptajain@ubs.com

+91-22-6155 6070

N M

Economist

S1460516050002

jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com

+86-105-832 8324

L

Economist

S1460524050003

grace-zc.wang@ubs.com

+86-105-832 8335

/O'

Associate Economist

nihal.kumar@ubs.com

+91-22-6155 6059

'& 30 August 2024 ab 2

3%

*')P'()'(

Q -

Gross Domestic Product . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Merchandise Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Industrial Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Money and Credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

BOP, FDI and FX Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

Labour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Interest Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Fiscal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Asset Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

World and APAC Snapshot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36

Key Global Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37

Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38

'& 30 August 2024 ab 3

'RS

Why this matters:

GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity. It is strongly

correlated with the profit cycle and provides important clues about inflation and

the direction of policy. Strong GDP often suggests policy will tighten; weak GDP

implies a policy bias for pro-growth. Shifts in macro policies affect markets.

+-%TNR'S

-8

-4

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Big Economies Small Economies

Real GDP, %y/y

Source: CEIC, UBS. Note: Aggregated using 2019 nominal GDP fixed weight, big

economies include China, India, and Indonesia.

+-#)U)

2022 2023 2024E 2025E 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24

China 3.0 5.2 4.6 4.0 4.9 5.2 5.3 4.7

Hong Kong -3.7 3.3 2.5 2.8 4.2 4.3 2.8 3.3

India* 7.0 8.2 7.0 7.0 8.1 8.6 7.8 --

Indonesia 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0

Japan 1.2 1.8 0.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 -0.9 -0.8

Korea 2.7 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.4 2.1 3.3 2.3

Malaysia 8.9 3.6 4.9 4.4 3.1 2.9 4.2 5.9

Philippines 7.6 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.8 6.3

Singapore 3.8 1.1 2.6 2.5 1.0 2.2 3.0 2.9

Taiwan 2.6 1.3 3.8 3.1 2.1 4.8 6.6 5.1

Thailand 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.3

Vietnam 8.1 5.0 6.4 6.8 5.5 6.7 5.9 6.9

Source: CEIC and UBS estimates. *FY beginning April.

+$-V

-2

SG MY TH ID PH VN HK PRC TW KR IN JP

Previous quarter Latest quarter

Real GDP, %q/q SA

Source: Haver, UBS. Note: Latest quarter is Q2 '24 for all economies except IN.

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abAPACEconomicPerspectivesAsiabytheNumbers(August2024)!"#!#$DespiteneweasingmeasuresinJuly,China'spropertydownturnhaspersisted.Givenlingeringinventorypressures,wedowngradedourpropertymar...

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