JPMorgan Econ FI-Asia Local Market Issuance and Flows Pack Chart pack of regi...-110012129

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EM Asia Local Markets Strategy

Sean Kelly (AC) (65) 6882-8442 sean.t.kelly@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

Arindam Sandilya (65) 6882-7759 arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

Tiffany Wang (852) 2800-1726 tiffany.r.wang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

EM Asia Local Market Flows, Positioning and Issuance 26 August 2024

Foreign Flows into Local Currency Government Bonds Summary

USD billion. Latest value is based on available monthly data and subject to revision following release of additional data.

Source: J.P. Morgan, Ministries of Finance, Central Banks. Notes: Philippines data based on BoP debt flows, China (CGB), India (IGB),

Indonesia (INDOGB, INDOIS, INDORB), Malaysia (MGS, MGII), Philippines (RPGB), South Korea (KTB), and Thailand (THAIGB).

Foreign Ownership Summary Local Currency Government Bond Gross Issuance Summary

Foreign ownership of local currency government bonds as % of amount outstanding

Country Latest ($bn) Latest (%)

1M change

(%pts)

12M change

(%pts)

Ownership

since Jan-21

China 310.8 (Jul-24) 7.2% (Jul-24) 0.0% -0.9%

India 33.1 (Jul-24) 2.7% (Jul-24) 0.2% 0.8%

Indonesia 49.8 (Jul-24) 14.0% (Jul-24) 0.1% -1.6%

Malaysia 57.2 (Jul-24) 22.2% (Jul-24) 0.5% -1.9%

Philippines 5.0 (Jun-24) 2.8% (Jun-24) 0.3% 0.9%

South Korea 170.7 (Jul-24) 22.2% (Jul-24) 0.4% 0.8%

Thailand 23.7 (Jul-24) 9.9% (Jul-24) -0.1% -2.2%

Vietnam 0.2 (Mar-24) 0.2% (Mar-24) 0.0% -0.2%

Source: J.P. Morgan, Ministries of Finance, Central Banks. Notes: Philippines and Vietnam quarterly data; others latest available monthly data:

China (CGB), India (IGB), Indonesia (INDOGB, INDOIS, INDORB), Malaysia (MGS, MGII), Philippines (RPGB), South Korea (KTB),

Thailand (THAIGB), and Vietnam (VIETGB).

See pages 21-23 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. Source: J.P. Morgan Estimates, Ministries of Finance, Central Banks. Notes: India & Thailand are for latest fiscal year

Monthly Highlights

Foreign Flows: Inflows into local bond markets have seen a material pick up of late. Official foreign

inflows reached $11.4bn during Jul-24, the highest monthly inflow of the year. South Korea continues to

lead the pack, with $10.3bn of inflows YTD (closely followed by India at $9.0bn).

Local bond issuance: (1) Indonesia: Authorities have released their draft budget for FY 2025, with the

deficit pencilled in at 2.5% GDP (vs the expected 2.7% this year). Despite the lower deficit, net bond

issuance is expected to see a notable tick up, coming in at IDR643tn versus the IDR452tn for 2024 -

representing a 45%yoy increase. Much of this is due to the fact that authorities are utilising more cash

balances as a funding source this year.

JPM EM Client Survey: Despite what has been a strong month for EM Asia FX, investors have been

reluctant to add to bullish positions, and have in fact reduced positioning in the latest survey data. In

contrast to the FX changes, duration saw more of a bullish slant on the month. In China, we saw bearish

duration positions reduced to the lowest level since Jul-22 (+1.5m/m, -0.6, the largest risk addition in EM

rates this month). Elsewhere, we also saw risk additions in Malaysia (+1.3m/m, -1.8), Indonesia (+1.1m/m,

+1.5) and Thailand (+0.4m/m, -2.6).

% of JPM full year forecast. Red dot represents the total issuance complete at the same stage in the prior calendar year. A red dot higher than the

current level, means authorities are below last year's equivalent issuance pace.

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

India China Indonesia South Korea

Thailand Malaysia Philippines EM Asia Total

93%

83% 81% 79% 76% 75%

66% 63%

40%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

THB* SGD PHP KRW IDR MYR TWD CNY INR*

Table of Contents

Local Currency Government Bond Issuance, Flows and Ownership Summary Page 3 - 5

Historical Gross & Net Local Currency Bond Issuance Tracking Page 6

Proxied Government Cash Balances Page 7

Local Currency Government Bond Flows Page 8 - 9

Local Currency Government Bond Ownership and Positioning Page 10 - 11

EM Asia Country Slides Page 12 - 20

China Page 12

India Page 13

Indonesia Page 14

South Korea Page 15

Malaysia Page 16

Philippines Page 17

Singapore Page 18

Taiwan Page 19

Thailand Page 20

Disclosures Page 21 - 23

Page 2

Local Currency Government Bond Issuance Summary

% completed (green shade) of JPM full year forecast; both full year forecast and YTD are expressed in local bn terms

Complete

Remaining

Source: J.P. Morgan Estimates, Ministries of Finance, Central Banks. Notes: *India & Thailand are for latest fiscal year

Based on JPM forecast for gross local currency government bond issuance

Page 3

China

63%

Full year forecast: 11920

YTD: 7523

South Korea

79%

Full year forecast: 158000

YTD: 124300

Singapore

83%

Full year forecast: 28

YTD: 23

India*

40%

Full year forecast: 14010

YTD: 5590

Malaysia

75%

Full year forecast: 164

YTD: 124

Taiwan

66%

Full year forecast: 520

YTD: 345

Indonesia

76%

Full year forecast: 490000

YTD: 370210

Philippines

81%

Full year forecast: 1853

YTD: 1509

Thailand*

93%

Full year forecast: 1400

YTD: 1306

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EMAsiaLocalMarketsStrategySeanKelly(AC)(65)6882-8442sean.t.kelly@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchArindamSandilya(65)6882-7759arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchTiffanyWang(852)2800-1726tiffany.r.wang@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific...

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