UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _Earnings Brief 2Q24 August 26_ Golub-110017681

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US Equity Strategy

Earnings Brief 2Q24: August 26

NVDA (6.6% of S&P 500 market cap) reports earnings on Wednesday. EPS is expected to

grow 137% (vs. 462% in 1Q24, and expectations of 76% in 3Q24). Reported earnings

have beaten estimates for the past 5 quarters.

90.2% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 2Q expectations are for revenues to

grow 5.1% and EPS by 11.3%. Growth among groups varies significantly, as shown in

the table below (a blend of consensus estimates and reported results where available):

Group EPS Growth (%)

TECH+ 29.0

Financials 13.3

Utilities 13.2

Non-Cyclicals ex-Utilities 4.6

Cyclicals 0.0

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS

Earnings are beating estimates by 5.6% in aggregate (vs. a historical average of 4.8%),

with 74% of companies topping projections. EPS is on pace for 11.5%, assuming the

current beat rate continues through the end of reporting season.

Firms beating on both revenues and EPS are delivering a more positive response than

typical, outperforming the market by 2.9% vs. a historical average of 1.7%. Those

missing on both are underperforming by -2.0% vs. -3.1%.

Over the next 5 trading days, 16 companies representing 8.0% of S&P 500’s market cap

will report results, including Nvidia, Salesforce, Crowdstrike, Lululemon Athletica, and

Dollar General.

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137.4

93.8

73.2

31.3

11.1 9.7

NVDA AMZN META GOOGL AAPL MSFT

%Consensus

Estimate Actual

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS

This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. "# $%$&&%$&'" "()&((& %' ) * +,-./0+,1

+,234567+3,3,789/6,7+767+:99;964-89:+9<=/>.+;890>?)@ *>91+,3,=619AB UBS does and seeks to do

business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their

investment decision.

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Americas

E

Strategist

jonathan.golub@ubs.com

+1-212-713 8673

FGD

Strategist

patrick.palfrey@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2149

HEF

Associate Strategist

will.jackson@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4550

" IDD

Associate Strategist

nicholas.samoyedny@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2272

) CD D 26 August 2024 ab 2

US Equity Strategy UBS Research

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Weighted Growth YoY (%)

Revenue

Margins Earnings Buybacks EPS

S&P 500 5.1 4.9 10.1 1.3 11.3

S&P 500 ex-TECH+ 3.9 0.0 3.9 1.4 5.3

TECH+ 10.9 17.1 28.1 0.9 29.0

Cyclicals 2.8 -4.5 -1.6 1.6 0.0

Energy 8.1 -7.0 1.1 0.0 1.2

Materials -1.5 -5.4 -6.9 1.0 -5.9

Industrials -0.1 -1.1 -1.2 1.6 0.4

Discretionary ex-AMZN 2.9 -5.4 -2.5 3.2 0.7

Non-Cyclicals 4.5 0.1 4.6 0.8 5.3

Staples 1.7 1.3 3.0 0.6 3.6

Health Care 7.1 -1.8 5.3 1.8 7.1

Utilities 3.0 11.7 14.7 -1.5 13.2

REITs 7.2 -4.1 3.1 -4.6 -1.5

Telcos 0.5 -4.7 -4.2 0.8 -3.4

Financials 5.0 6.2 11.2 2.1 13.3

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS

Note: Blend of actuals where available and estimates

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Surprise (%)

Rptd Total Revenue Margins Earnings

S&P 500 478 500 1.1 4.5 5.6

TECH+ 69 77 0.6 4.3 4.9

Cyclicals 174 179 1.6 1.8 3.4

Energy 22 22 4.0 -0.1 3.9

Materials 28 28 0.8 3.8 4.6

Industrials 77 78 0.5 3.9 4.4

Discretionary ex-AMZN 47 51 1.0 0.3 1.3

Non-Cyclicals 164 173 0.4 6.5 6.9

Staples 31 38 -0.2 4.0 3.8

Health Care 61 63 1.2 8.6 9.8

Utilities 31 31 -2.4 9.5 7.1

REITs 31 31 0.4 1.0 1.5

Telcos 3 3 -0.4 1.6 1.2

Financials 71 71 2.9 4.5 7.4

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS

Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%

) CD D 26 August 2024 ab 3

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Current Historical Average

% %

Beats Hits/Misses Beats Hits/Misses

Beats

2.9 0.8 2.0

Beats

1.7 -1.4 0.9

Hits/Misses

-2.3 -2.0 -2.1

Hits/Misses

-0.3 -3.1 -2.4

2.1 -0.2 1.1 -1.5

Revenue Surprises

EPS Surprises

Revenue Surprises

EPS Surprises

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS

Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price

performance -1 to +1 days

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Price Action (%)

EPS Beat with EPS Miss with

Overall Rev Beat Rev Miss Rev Beat Rev Miss

S&P 500 1.0 2.9 0.8 -2.3 -2.0

TECH+ 0.7 1.8 0.7 -0.2 -2.9

Cyclicals 0.8 2.6 1.3 -3.8 -1.7

Energy 1.3 1.8 2.9 1.8 -1.3

Materials 0.4 0.6 3.5 -0.2 -3.7

Industrials 1.5 4.6 1.4 -3.4 -3.2

Discretionary ex-AMZN -0.4 1.2 -1.1 -9.1 1.5

Non-Cyclicals 1.0 3.8 0.2 -1.9 -2.9

Staples -0.2 4.8 0.7 -22.4 -5.9

Health Care -0.2 3.5 -3.9 -1.9 -10.5

Utilities 2.8 2.7 3.1 1.5 2.9

REITs 1.8 3.9 1.0 1.5 -0.8

Telcos 2.4 6.5 NA NA 0.4

Financials 1.8 3.2 0.7 -0.4 1.3

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS

Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price

performance -1 to +1 days

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abUSEquityStrategyEarningsBrief2Q24:August26NVDA(6.6%ofS&P500marketcap)reportsearningsonWednesday.EPSisexpectedtogrow137%(vs.462%in1Q24,andexpectationsof76%in3Q24).Reportedearningshavebeatenestimatesforthepast5quarters.90.2%oftheS&P500'smarketcaphas...

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