UBS Economics-European Economic Perspectives _Eurozone How is bank lendin...-110048992

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ab

European Economic Perspectives
Eurozone: How is bank lending holding up?
!
Monetary and credit dynamics have been followed closely over the past two years to
scrutinise the impact of ECB monetary policy tightening. In this report, we analyse the
newly released Eurozone monetary and credit data for July. The overall message remains
that Eurozone financial conditions are tight, with credit and monetary dynamics
recovering only very slowly. In July, private sector credit growth increased 0.2pp to 1.3%
y/y, with household loans up 0.2pp to 0.5% y/y, but loans to non-financial corporate
(NFC) was down 0.1pp to +0.6% y/y. The recovery in M3 growth paused in July, at 2.3%
y/y.
"
Growth in total credit from Monetary and Financial Institutions (MFI) rose by 0.1pp to
0.3% y/y in July. Public sector credit (previously dominated by QE) rose 0.3pp to -1.1%
y/y. Private sector lending (adjusted for loan sales & securitisation) was up 0.2pp to 1.3%
y/y, with household loans up 0.2pp to 0.5% y/y (mortgages up 0.1pp to +0.5% y/y;
consumer loans up 0.2pp to +3.0% y/y), but loans to NFC down 0.1pp to +0.6% y/y.
Sequential momentum in credit growth was unchanged, at a modest pace: The 3-
month moving average of m/m private sector credit growth unchanged at +0.2%, with
NFC and HH loans steady at +0.1% and zero, respectively (Fig. 17-20).
#$
EZ bank lending rates for new corporate loans most recently published by the ECB (June)
fell 4bps to 5.06%, down 21bp from the peak in October 2023, but up 370bp from the
low in December 2021. Corporate lending rates remain highest in the Baltic nations
(6.26-6.36%) as well as Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus (5.47-5.82%);
they were lowest in Luxembourg (4.34%) and the Netherlands (4.23%). The spread
between small loans (<€1m, typically requested by SMEs) and larger loans (>€1m)
narrowed by 7bps to 37bp, but remained below the 10-year average of 0.73%.
Eurozone (volume-weighted) mortgage rates fell by 2bps to 3.78%, down 24bp from
the peak in November 2023 (Fig. 83-86). ECB data on NPLs is released with a substantial
delay; in Q1-24, the Eurozone ratio stood at 1.71%, marginally up from Q1-23, but still
103bps lower than in Q4-19 (Fig. 87-89).
%%!!&'() 
Private sector deposit growth was up 0.1pp to 2.0% y/y in July. The Eurozone loan-to-
deposit ratio rose 0.3pp to 94.3%, down from 104.5% in early 2020 (Fig. 77-82).
*(!+
In July, M3 growth was unchanged at 2.3% y/y, while growth in M1 (which includes the
most liquid components of M3, including currency in circulation & overnight deposits)
rose 0.3pp to -3.1% y/y. (Fig. 94-98). For the ECB's latest thinking on monetary analysis,
see Philip Lane: "Modern monetary analysis" (June 2024) and Isabel Schnabel: "Money
and inflation" (Sept. 2023). The two ECB Executive Board members appear to differ on
the question of what role strong growth in broad money played in the inflation surge of
2021-23.
For our latest views on,#!, see: ECB: Staying data-dependent; we
expect a cut in September (18 July). See -for data, charts and concepts.
This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ./01,122,123..45624420,3060 789:;<78=
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
Europe Ex. UK
,
Economist
reinhard.cluse@ubs.com
+44-20-7568 6722
1
Economist
anna.titareva@ubs.com
+44-20-7568 5083
L$
Economist
franziska.fischer@ubs.com
+41-44-239 2054
-MN
Economist
felix.huefner@ubs.com
+49-69-1369 8280
!"! 28 August 2024 ab 2
European Economic Perspectives UBS Research
-
OPL$! 
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Private sector % y/y 4.5 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
new loans % y/y, 3mma 0.7 -13.8 -13.6 -13.0 -9.0 -5.9 -4.6 -4.5 -5.6 -1.6 0.6 3.5
Non-financial % y/y 3.8 0.7 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6
corporates % m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
new loans % y/y, 3mma 1.0 -10.5 -10.9 -12.6 -8.4 -4.6 -2.7 -3.9 -5.6 -1.8 1.5 4.7
Households % y/y 3.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
new loans % y/y, 3mma 1.0 -20.8 -19.4 -13.6 -10.5 -9.4 -9.5 -6.6 -5.8 -1.3 -1.5 0.5
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Private sector % y/y 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
new loans % y/y, 3mma 1.5 -13.0 -11.8 -14.5 -8.4 -3.4 -1.2 -4.9 -7.1 -1.8 2.6 5.2
Non-financial % y/y 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.0
corporates % m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
new loans % y/y, 3mma 3.5 -9.5 -8.9 -15.3 -8.7 -2.7 -0.7 -6.9 -10.4 -5.2 0.9 3.6
Households % y/y 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
new loans % y/y, 3mma -0.9 -21.7 -18.7 -12.0 -7.3 -6.1 -3.3 1.7 4.9 10.0 8.1 10.6
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Private sector % y/y 5.7 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
new loans % y/y, 3mma 5.1 -26.2 -23.4 -22.4 -18.8 -17.3 -17.6 -15.7 -19.1 -14.0 -7.8 -1.8
Non-financial % y/y 5.5 4.0 3.5 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.7
corporates % m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
new loans % y/y, 3mma 5.9 -17.6 -13.3 -14.7 -11.3 -10.9 -10.5 -8.2 -13.2 -7.7 3.8 10.6
Households % y/y 5.9 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
new loans % y/y, 3mma 6.4 -36.0 -35.7 -31.7 -28.8 -26.9 -28.3 -27.1 -27.7 -23.1 -22.6 -17.5
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Private sector % y/y 3.2 -3.3 -3.8 -3.2 -3.1 -2.6 -2.8 -2.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
new loans % y/y, 3mma 2.2 -6.5 -10.9 -6.8 -3.4 -1.5 -4.2 -5.7 -5.4 -5.1 -0.9 -0.1
Non-financial % y/y 2.4 -6.2 -6.8 -5.5 -5.1 -3.9 -4.3 -4.1 -4.3 -3.8 -3.5 -3.6 -4.1
corporates % m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.1 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5
new loans % y/y, 3mma 2.3 -11.2 -14.4 -11.3 -6.4 -3.0 -3.2 -5.1 -3.7 -3.9 1.4 3.8
Households % y/y 4.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
new loans % y/y, 3mma 4.3 10.9 2.5 9.6 6.2 3.3 -6.9 -7.7 -9.9 -8.3 -7.3 -10.1
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Private sector % y/y 3.4 -2.7 -2.5 -3.0 -2.9 -2.6 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -0.5
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
new loans % y/y, 3mma -2.0 -10.8 -12.4 -9.4 -5.9 -1.7 1.2 7.7 5.4 11.4 8.8 12.9
Non-financial % y/y 3.6 -3.8 -3.4 -4.3 -4.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.3 -2.0 -1.1 -1.1
corporates % m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
new loans % y/y, 3mma -1.9 -11.8 -13.9 -11.5 -7.3 -2.7 0.0 6.4 3.9 9.6 6.9 11.3
Households % y/y 3.2 -1.9 -1.9 -2.1 -1.9 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.2 0.0
% m/m, 3mma (SA) 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
new loans % y/y, 3mma -0.1 -7.5 -7.1 -2.2 -1.5 1.5 4.8 11.4 10.3 17.6 15.0 18.5
Spain
LT average
% y/y
Italy
LT average
% y/y
France
LT average
% y/y
LT average
% y/y
Eurozone
Germany
LT average
% y/y
Source: Haver, ECB, UBS
!"! 28 August 2024 ab 3
PL$! 
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 4.5 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3
Germany 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3
France 5.7 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
Italy 3.2 -3.3 -3.8 -3.2 -3.1 -2.6 -2.8 -2.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3
Spain 3.4 -2.7 -2.5 -3.0 -2.9 -2.6 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -0.5
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Germany 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
France 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Italy 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Spain 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 0.7 -13.8 -13.6 -13.0 -9.0 -5.9 -4.6 -4.5 -5.6 -1.6 0.6 3.5
Germany 1.5 -13.0 -11.8 -14.5 -8.4 -3.4 -1.2 -4.9 -7.1 -1.8 2.6 5.2
France 5.1 -26.2 -23.4 -22.4 -18.8 -17.3 -17.6 -15.7 -19.1 -14.0 -7.8 -1.8
Italy 2.2 -6.5 -10.9 -6.8 -3.4 -1.5 -4.2 -5.7 -5.4 -5.1 -0.9 -0.1
Spain -2.0 -10.8 -12.4 -9.4 -5.9 -1.7 1.2 7.7 5.4 11.4 8.8 12.9
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 3.8 0.7 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6
Germany 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.0
France 5.5 4.0 3.5 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.7
Italy 2.4 -6.2 -6.8 -5.5 -5.1 -3.9 -4.3 -4.1 -4.3 -3.8 -3.5 -3.6 -4.1
Spain 3.6 -3.8 -3.4 -4.3 -4.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.3 -2.0 -1.1 -1.1
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Germany 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
France 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Italy 0.1 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5
Spain 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 1.0 -10.5 -10.9 -12.6 -8.4 -4.6 -2.7 -3.9 -5.6 -1.8 1.5 4.7
Germany 3.5 -9.5 -8.9 -15.3 -8.7 -2.7 -0.7 -6.9 -10.4 -5.2 0.9 3.6
France 5.9 -17.6 -13.3 -14.7 -11.3 -10.9 -10.5 -8.2 -13.2 -7.7 3.8 10.6
Italy 2.3 -11.2 -14.4 -11.3 -6.4 -3.0 -3.2 -5.1 -3.7 -3.9 1.4 3.8
Spain -1.9 -11.8 -13.9 -11.5 -7.3 -2.7 0.0 6.4 3.9 9.6 6.9 11.3
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 3.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5
Germany 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
France 5.9 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2
Italy 4.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6
Spain 3.2 -1.9 -1.9 -2.1 -1.9 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.2 0.0
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Germany 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
France 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Italy 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Spain 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24
Eurozone 1.0 -20.8 -19.4 -13.6 -10.5 -9.4 -9.5 -6.6 -5.8 -1.3 -1.5 0.5
Germany -0.9 -21.7 -18.7 -12.0 -7.3 -6.1 -3.3 1.7 4.9 10.0 8.1 10.6
France 6.4 -36.0 -35.7 -31.7 -28.8 -26.9 -28.3 -27.1 -27.7 -23.1 -22.6 -17.5
Italy 4.3 10.9 2.5 9.6 6.2 3.3 -6.9 -7.7 -9.9 -8.3 -7.3 -10.1
Spain -0.1 -7.5 -7.1 -2.2 -1.5 1.5 4.8 11.4 10.3 17.6 15.0 18.5
LT average
new loans, %y/y, 3mma
Private Sector (HH & NFC)
LT average
%y/y
LT average
%m/m, 3mma (SA)
LT average
new loans, %y/y, 3mma
Households
LT average
%y/y
LT average
%m/m, 3mma (SA)
%y/y
Non-financial corporates
%m/m, 3mma (SA)
new loans, %y/y, 3mma
LT average
LT average
LT average
Source: Haver, ECB, UBS
摘要：

abEuropeanEconomicPerspectivesEurozone:Howisbanklendingholdingup?!MonetaryandcreditdynamicshavebeenfollowedcloselyoverthepasttwoyearstoscrutinisetheimpactofECBmonetarypolicytightenin...

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