高盛-全球经济分析：剖析发达经济体储蓄率分化现象（摘要）-240918

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■近年来，发达经济体的总体储蓄率出现分化：大多数发达经济体的储蓄率上升，

而美国的储蓄率下降。在本期报告中，我们将证明各国对储蓄率的计量差异可部

分解释这种分化现象，而剩余原因主要在于各国经济基本面存在差异。

考虑到各国统计机构对总体储蓄率的定义不同以及计量偏差导致美国的储蓄率被

低估，各国储蓄率的差异并不像官方公布的那么大。例如，经我们调整后的美国

毛储蓄率为9.4%,虽然仍低于欧元区和英国的15.7%和11.3%,但真实差异并不

像官方公布的美国净储蓄率(2.9%)所隐含的差异那么大。

■资产负债状况的改善使得美国的储蓄率相较于2019年下降了0.7个百分点，使得意

大利和澳大利亚的储蓄率下降了约0.5个百分点。此外，净收入从借款人(特别是

背负浮动利率按揭贷款的借款人)向储户的再分配可能将英国、法国和西班牙的

储蓄率提高了1个百分点以上，而附息资产在欧洲家庭的资产组合中占比较高，这

意味着欧洲家庭在面对资产收益率上升时可能更倾向于提高储蓄率。

全球经济分析

剖析发达经济体储蓄率分化现象(摘要)

■疫情期间削减支出较多的国家的储蓄率呈现出更大幅度上升。尽管这可能在一定

程度上反映出家庭预防性储蓄动机增强，但是接触式服务持续遇冷表明，人们对

偏好的重新思考或习惯的改变可能正在推动美国以外发达经济体的支出下降和储

蓄率上升。

这些因素可以解释2019年以来大多数发达经济体储蓄率可观测变化的约50%-80%

(尽管加拿大储蓄率偏高和澳大利亚储蓄率偏低在很大程度上仍原因不明),其

余则可能反映了难以量化的预防性储蓄动机。我们预计未来这些预防性储蓄动机

应会消失，不过几项预防性储蓄动机的持续存在将加大美国以外发达经济体支出

较慢复苏的风险。

Goldman

Sachs Research 2024年9月18日

|8:25AM EDT

Jan Hatzius

+1(212)902-0394 |jan.hatzius@gs.com

高盛集团

Joseph Briggs

+1(212)902-2163|

oseph.briggs@gs.com

高盛集团

Giovanni Pierdomenico

+44(20)7051-6807|

giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com

高盛国际

投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅

www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。

Econom iCS

资料来源：Haver Analytics,高盛全球投资研究部

Harmonizing Saving Rates

While saving rate levels differ across countries due to long-standing institutional and

behavioral differences,the differences are not as large as they might seem after

accounting for the different definitions of headline saving rates used by national

statistical agencies.The BEA in the US,Statcan in Canada,and the ABS in Australia

report net saving rates,while Western Europe generally reports gross saving rates.Net

saving rates deduct the imputed depreciation of assets used in production,which,in the

case of households,mostly consist of housing assets used to produce shelter services

and assets of unincorporated businesses.These deductions lower saving,especially in

countries with higher housing wealth to income ratios.

图表2 harmonizes the definition of saving rates by converting all saving rates to a gross

basis,resulting in higher saving rate levels in the US(+4.2pp),Canada(+4.6pp)and

especially Australia(+12.2pp).As a result,the saving rate level divergence across

countries is much less severe than implied in 图表 1 ,although cross-country level

differences are still present due to structural differences across economies (e.g.,the

financing of retirement and credit constraints).

Changes in saving rates are more relevant than levels for the near-term growth outlook,

so the right side of 图表 2documents the heterogenous dynamics of the saving rate over

2024年9月18日 2

Saving rates across major DMs are diverging,a dynamic that that has contributed to

stronger GDP growth in the US relative to other DMs(particularly Europe and Canada;

图表 1).In this Global Economics Analyst,we first show that methodological differences

across countries and mismeasurement in the US overstate some of the divergence,and

then highlight three economic drivers that explain most of the residual heterogeneity.

*Refers to net saving rates in theUS,Canada,and Australia,gross saving rates elsewhere

Note:Weincorporate our tracking estimate for 2024 Q2 in the Euro area.

全球经济分析

Dissecting Diverging DM Saving Rates

图表1:Headline Saving Rates Point to Large Level Differences in Saving Propensity

Goldman Sachs

资料来源： HaverAnalytics, 高盛全球投资研究部

These measures still likely overstate the divergence in saving rates between other DMs

and the US,and we recently argued that the US saving rate is 2.3pp higher than

reported in official statistics after correcting for measurement biases and accounting for

adjustments that align income and spending with cashflow relevant to households.

The main driver of this difference is a bias in the BEA's methodology for extrapolating

personal interest income in the US national accounts.Interest income will eventually be

revised to match interest income received by businesses and households using data

from the IRS,but until then,the BEA's methodology implicitly assumes businesses are

receiving most of the increase in interest payments due to higher rates even though US

households are net lenders to the rest of the economy.

图表 3 shows that US personal interest income has undershot its historical relationship

with prevailing rates (left chart)and is providing much less of a boost to household

income in the US than in other DMs (right chart).We estimate that US personal interest

income is currently being undermeasured by around $350bn SAAR and that an upward

revision of personal disposable income of this size would imply a 1.5pp upward revision

to the US saving rate (on both a gross and net basis)

2 0 2 4 年 9 月 1 8 日 3

Harmonized

Percent

Changes vs.2019 Average

Euro Area 30 20

15.7%

12.8%

11.3% 10 28%

7.1% 5

3.0%

2020 2021 2022 2023

NoteWeincorporate our tracking estimate for 2024 Q2 in the Euro area.

the last couple of years.Relative to 2019,our harmonized saving rates declined by

4.1pp in the US and 3.0pp in Australia while it increased by 2.8pp in the Euro area (with

larger overshoots in Spain and France)and by more than 5pp in the UK and Canada.

Goldman Sachs 全球经济分析

图表 2 :Harmonizing Definitions Reduces Level Differences,but the Recent Cross-Country Divergence Remains

Euro Area

Canada

Australia

Percentage

points

2012 2016 2020

Canada

Australia

SavingRates

2024 2025

2004 2008

Percent

Levels

Pe rce ntage

-5

5.8%

2019

2024

Doints

-5

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摘要：

■近年来，发达经济体的总体储蓄率出现分化：大多数发达经济体的储蓄率上升，而美国的储蓄率下降。在本期报告中，我们将证明各国对储蓄率的计量差异可部分解释这种分化现象，而剩余原因主要在于各国经济基本面存在差异。考虑到各国统计机构对总体储蓄率的定义不同以及计量偏差导致美国的储蓄率被低估，各国储蓄率的差异并不像官方公布的那么大。例如，经我们调整后的美国毛储蓄率为9.4%,虽然仍低于欧元区和英国的15.7%和11.3%,但真实差异并不像官方公布的美国净储蓄率(2.9%)所隐含的差异那么大。■资产负债状况的改善使得美国的储蓄率相较于2019年下降了0.7个百分点，使得意大利和澳大利亚的储蓄率下降了约0.5个...

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