高盛：再不入场更待何时？购买中国股票的10个理由-241007-28页

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2024/10/7 11:30

Goldman Sachs Research - Marquee

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Research | Portfolio Strategy | By Kinger Lau, CFA and others

1. The government has revealed its "pain threshold" and the strike price of the

policy put on growth and the stock market.

2. This time is dierent in terms of policy response, and investors are getting what

they were hoping for to a large extent.

3. Don't ght the PBoC, which is extending unprecedented and unorthodox support

to the equity market.

4. Pullback risks may have risen after ~30% gains in 2 weeks, but policy (u-turn)

provoked re-rating trades have seldom stopped there.

5. Lesson learned from Japan: powerful and tradable rallies can exist even in a

prolonged/deflationary bear market.

6. Inexpensive call options on growth/policy upside embedded in midcycle

valuations. We raise PE targets and introduce a bull case to model for liquidity

overshoot.

7. FOMO has room to run, positioning is clean, and the shift of capital sponsorship

from DM to EM is in motion.

8. More stimulus is probably needed to turn things around, but the prot outlook

has moderately improved.

9. The Fed has loosened one constraint on China stimulus, while potential new US

taris on Chinese goods (depending on the US election outcome) might increase

the intensity and longevity of it.

10. Even if the rally falters, China equity still has a place in investor portfolios.

How to play?

Lift H-shares to Overweight to join China A (14-15% 12m upside), but switch our

tactical preference from H to A.

China Strategy

If not now, when? 10 reasons to buy China equity

2024/10/7 11:30

Goldman Sachs Research - Marquee

https://marquee.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/07/9f7eb0c3-b0cd-4e06-91ae-c75566b474fc.html

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Play oense with policy endorsement and cash carry: Buy the Shareholder

Returns theme

(https://marquee.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/06/23/3f19127c-

e946-4c00-81b2-29b4abcbba.html).

Buy A-share small/mid caps and equity market proxies to hedge

overshoot/melt-up risks. Sectorally, we upgrade Insurance to Overweight.

We screen for 30 GS-Buy rated demand-side stimulus beneciaries.

1. The government has shown its cards

More than 10 key measures and consultation papers that span across the

monetary, scal, property, and equity market cohorts have been announced by

dierent regulatory bodies and ministries since September 24. The magnitude,

breadth, and comprehensiveness of this easing package is arguably the most

signicant in recent history, drawing investor comparisons to the "Rmb4tn

Stimulus" in 2008, the A-share rescue plan

(https://marquee.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2015/09/07/e133ca3c-

3728-443e-8ab6-bf7e4338d734.pdf) in 2015, and even the "Whatever it takes"

speech by the then ECB President Draghi in July 2012.

The package was delivered after successive months of soft macro data-points (GS

China CAI averaging 4% in the past 3 months) that put the full-year ocial

growth target of around 5% at risk

(https://marquee.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/09/22/7d950870-

699e-475e-bb42-c57ab70ae3bc.html). This also came just weeks after President

Xi called for stronger policy support in light of the macro challenges that China

currently faces.

Policymakers’ “pain threshold” may have also been recently reached/breached

as far as A-share performance is concerned, considering that the National Team

(https://marquee.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2022/09/18/3c205103-

61e2-4947-b28e-520f674574af.html)’s intervention in the stock market was

apparent when A-share benchmarks were trading at similar index levels earlier

this year before the rally took o (i.e. SHCOMP at around 2700).

All these underscore top policymakers' commitment to defend and achieve the

growth target, and instill stability and condence in the asset markets. In other

words, investors should now be better placed to comprehend and quantify the

government's policy put, and the corresponding risk of engaging in the equity

market.

2024/10/7 11:30

Goldman Sachs Research - Marquee

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2. This time is dierent, in terms of policy response

Many China watchers may have suered "policy fatigue" over the past 1-2

years, with the policy delivery in the post Covid-era generally being perceived as

underwhelming. Given low market expectations, the latest easing package has

positively surprised investors and altered the policy narrative along a few

dimensions, in our view:

Magnitude of easing: The RRR and interest rate cuts were larger than

expected, and the (unconrmed) additional government bond issuance size

(https://marquee.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/09/29/74e341e4-

Exhibit 1: The latest easing package contains policies that span across the monetary, scal,

property, and equity market cohorts

Source: PBOC, NAFR, CSRC, Bloomberg, Reuters, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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