牛津经济研究院-探讨英国养老金缴款增加的影响（英）-2024.2-33页

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Exploring the implications of higher pension contributions in the UK

EXPLORING THE

IMPLICATIONS OF

HIGHER PENSION

CONTRIBUTIONS

IN THE UK

REPORT FOR ROYAL LONDON

FEBRUARY 2024

Exploring the implications of higher pension contributions in the UK

ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS

Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s business

college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions

expanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global

advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on more than 200 countries,

100 industries, and 8,000 cities and regions. Our best-in-class global economic and industry models

and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their

economic, social and business impact.

Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in New York, London, Frankfurt, and Singapore,

Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin,

Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Sydney, Tokyo, and Toronto.

We employ 600 staff, including more than 350 professional economists, industry experts, and business

editors—one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our global

team is highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities from

econometric modelling, scenario framing, and economic impact analysis to market surveys, case studies,

expert panels, and web analytics.

Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers and

thought leaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over 2,000 international organisations,

including leading multinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and trade

associations; and top universities, consultancies, and think tanks.

February 2024

All data shown in tables and charts are Oxford Economics’ own data, except where otherwise stated

The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties, upon

which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any

subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.

To discuss the report further please contact:

Henry Worthington: hworthington@oxfordeconomics.com

Oxford Economics

4 Millbank, London SW1P 3JA, UK

Tel: +44 203 910 8061

Exploring the implications of higher pension contributions in the UK

FOREWORD

Automatic enrolment is one of the most successful public policy

innovations of modern times. Following decades of failed

attempts, the move from ‘opt in’ to ‘opt out’ has transformed

employee participation in workplace pensions, doubling take-up

in the private sector in just a few years.

However, there is widespread acceptance that the policy

remains unfinished business, with contribution rates well below

where they need to be to secure a decent standard of living for

most people in retirement. More than ten years on from the

introduction of automatic enrolment, there is still no plan in place to address this.

Many commentators make the point that now isn’t the time to be increasing pension contributions,

when increases in the cost of living mean that employers and employees face many other financial

challenges. However, this shouldn’t stop us from considering a plan to improve people’s longer-term

financial wellbeing. After all, policies of this nature tend to progress over decades rather than years.

A baseline for driving discussion

We commissioned Oxford Economics to carry out research to examine some commonly held views, in

order to provide a baseline study for driving discussion around the long-term approach to take.

For instance, it's easy to see that increasing pension contributions will, for most people, improve their

retirement years. It’s also clear, however, that paying more into pensions will affect what money

people have to spend today. There is some fairly predictable short-term pain, for a longer-term gain.

Arguably, the impact on the economy of increasing pension contributions is just as significant a

consideration. Pension schemes invest billions in UK companies, and all the major political parties are

alive to the opportunities of building on this through more targeted investment, particularly in start-

up ventures in sectors where the UK has renowned innovation capability. Equally, a more financially

resilient retired population is likely to reduce reliance on state benefits, increase tax receipts, and

improve spending in the real economy.

Moving towards an effective solution

The results of the research clearly show the short-term challenges, but also point to the long-term

rewards—for everyone.

The modelling does not account for any further policy interventions from the government, other than

implementing the recommendations of the 2017 automatic enrolment review, which are well

advanced. As a result, the insights provide an opportunity to consider how downsides might be

mitigated, or upsides increased.

For example, a government that is minded to reduce taxes for employers, employees, or both, could

consider how this might be used, in part, to offset increased pension contributions. This could help

address the argument that any increases would simply be seen as a tax on employment.

As is noted in this report, only 40% of employees are on track for a “moderate” standard of living

when they retire, based on current savings levels and with the aforementioned policy interventions

already in progress. I hope you find the analysis in this report provides an interesting and informative

contribution to the debate about how we move towards a more adequate level of retirement savings.

Foreword from Barry O’Dwyer,

Group CEO, Royal London

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