UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _Earnings Brief 4Q23 Feb 14_ Golub-106520951

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3.0 梧桐 2024-03-02 93 16 719.09KB 16 页 免费
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US Equity Strategy
Earnings Brief 4Q23: Feb 14
The S&P 500 is experiencing two out-of-sync earnings cycles. TECH+, which saw 4
consecutive quarters of declining profits beginning in 2Q22, is expected to grow 4Q
EPS by 40.1%. By contrast, the Rest of the Market is in the third quarter of an earnings
recession.
80.4% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 4Q expectations are for revenues to
grow 3.3% and EPS by 9.4%. Growth among groups varies significantly, as shown in the
table below (a blend of reported results and consensus estimates for unreported
companies):
Group EPS Growth (%)
TECH+ 40.1
Financials 10.8
Non-Cyclical ex Health Care 7.0
Industrials & Disc ex Internet Retail 4.9
Health Care -10.8
Energy & Materials -21.5
Earnings are beating estimates by 7.2% in aggregate, with 72% of companies topping
projections. EPS is on pace for 10.8%, assuming the current beat rate for the rest of this
season.
Firms beating on both revenues and EPS are outperforming the market by 1.5% vs. a
historical average of 1.7%, while ones missing on both are underperforming by -4.2%
vs. -3.1%.
Over the next 5 trading days, 45 companies representing 8.2% of the S&P 500's market
cap will report results, including Deere, Home Depot, Walmart, NVIDIA, and Synopsys.
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-1.7
-8
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-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
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Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
Historical Trend
2024
%
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ()(*$+'+,,'(+,-)()./",..,$'-$"$0 123456127
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business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
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Americas
I
Strategist
jonathan.golub@ubs.com
+1-212-713 8673
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Strategist
patrick.palfrey@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
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Associate Strategist
will.jackson@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
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Associate Strategist
nicholas.samoyedny@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
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US Equity Strategy UBS Research
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Weighted Growth YoY (%)
Revenue
Margins Earnings Buybacks EPS
S&P 500 3.3 4.4 7.8 1.6 9.4
Cyclicals -2.0 -7.5 -9.5 2.2 -7.3
Energy -9.9 -15.0 -24.9 3.1 -21.8
Materials -5.9 -15.1 -21.0 0.7 -20.3
Industrials 3.0 2.6 5.6 1.6 7.1
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 1.8 -1.8 -0.1 1.7 1.6
TECH+ 10.1 28.3 38.4 1.7 40.1
Technology 7.1 13.4 20.5 0.9 21.4
Internet Retail 13.6 377.7 391.4 N.A. 423.6
Media & Internet 16.3 93.0 109.3 3.0 112.3
Non-Cyclicals 4.3 -6.6 -2.3 0.6 -1.7
Staples 2.6 2.5 5.1 0.2 5.3
Health Care 7.0 -19.2 -12.2 1.4 -10.8
Utilities -1.6 22.2 20.6 -2.8 17.8
REITs 6.4 -3.3 3.1 -3.5 -0.4
Telecos 0.9 -8.8 -7.9 0.8 -7.2
Financials 4.5 4.3 8.8 2.0 10.8
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Blend of actuals where available and estimates
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Surprise (%)
Rptd Total Revenue Margins Earnings
S&P 500 360 500 1.1 6.1 7.2
Cyclicals 128 176 1.3 9.0 10.3
Energy 12 23 -0.7 14.4 13.7
Materials 20 28 0.1 4.3 4.4
Industrials 64 78 1.9 7.7 9.5
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 32 47 3.2 6.2 9.4
TECH+ 54 76 1.4 5.0 6.5
Technology 45 64 1.0 4.4 5.5
Internet Retail 3 6 2.2 21.3 23.5
Media & Internet 6 6 1.7 3.4 5.1
Non-Cyclicals 111 176 1.5 4.5 6.0
Staples 25 38 0.4 4.9 5.3
Health Care 49 64 3.0 5.5 8.5
Utilities 9 30 -19.0 23.7 4.7
REITs 18 31 -0.8 1.2 0.3
Telcos 3 3 1.9 -4.3 -2.4
Financials 67 72 -0.8 7.2 6.4
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%
"$H$ 14 February 2024 ab 3
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Current Historical Average
% %
Beats Hits/Misses Beats Hits/Misses
Beats
1.5 -0.5 0.7
Beats
1.7 -1.4 0.9
Hits/Misses
-0.6 -4.2 -2.3
Hits/Misses
-0.3 -3.1 -2.4
1.0 -1.7 1.1 -1.5
Revenue Surprises
EPS Surprises
Revenue Surprises
EPS Surprises
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price
performance -1 to +1 days
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Price Action (%)
EPS Beat with EPS Miss with
Overall Rev Beat Rev Miss Rev Beat Rev Miss
S&P 500 -0.1 1.5 -0.5 -0.6 -4.2
Cyclicals 0.3 3.1 -0.7 -0.3 -7.0
Energy 1.1 2.4 1.3 NA -3.2
Materials 0.3 3.2 1.1 -1.0 -11.4
Industrials 0.3 2.4 -0.9 2.1 -7.9
-0.3 5.5 -2.1 -5.2 -4.1
TECH+ 0.3 1.0 -2.8 4.3 -0.2
Technology 0.2 0.9 -2.8 2.4 1.1
Internet Retail -2.6 -3.7 NA NA NA
2.9 4.7 NA 1.2 NA
Non-Cyclicals -0.5 0.4 0.2 -1.3 -3.4
Staples 0.3 1.9 0.1 -2.7 -1.7
Health Care -0.6 0.2 -1.6 -1.3 -6.2
Utilities -0.5 2.8 -0.9 NA -2.4
REITs -0.7 0.8 NA -1.8 -0.5
Telcos 1.0 NA NA 1.0 NA
Financials -0.5 0.3 0.2 -2.7 -2.6
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price
performance -1 to +1 days
摘要：

abUSEquityStrategyEarningsBrief4Q23:Feb14TheS&P500isexperiencingtwoout-of-syncearningscycles.TECH+,whichsaw4consecutivequartersofdecliningprofitsbeginningin2Q22,isexpectedtogrow4QEPSby40.1%.Bycontrast,theRestoftheMarketisinthethirdquarterofanearningsre...

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