UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _Earnings Brief 4Q23 Feb 12_ Golub-106482589

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3.0 梧桐 2024-03-02 33 738.34KB 16 页 免费
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US Equity Strategy
Earnings Brief 4Q23: Feb 12
77.7% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 4Q expectations are for revenues to
grow 3.4% and EPS by 9.1%. Growth among groups varies significantly, as shown in the
table below (a blend of reported results and consensus estimates for unreported
companies):
Group EPS Growth (%)
TECH+ 39.9
Financials 10.6
Non-Cyclical ex Health Care 6.8
Industrials & Disc ex Internet Retail 4.0
Health Care -10.7
Energy & Materials -21.4
Earnings are beating estimates by 7.1% in aggregate, with 72% of companies topping
projections. EPS is on pace for 10.7%, assuming the current beat rate for the rest of this
season.
Firms beating on both revenues and EPS are outperforming the market by 1.4% vs. a
historical average of 1.7%, while ones missing on both are underperforming by -4.3%
vs. -3.1%.
Over the next 5 trading days, 56 companies representing 5.6% of the S&P 500's market
cap will report results, including Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Marriott International, Cisco
Systems, Kraft Heinz, and Deere.
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-6
-5
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-3
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0
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Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
Historical Trend
2024
%
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ()(*$+'+,,'(+,-)()./",..,$'-$"$0123456127
1289:;<=19292=>?/5<2=1=<=1@??A?<:3>?@1?BC5D41A>?6DE"$0D?71292C<7?FG UBS does and seeks to do
business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
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Americas
I
Strategist
jonathan.golub@ubs.com
+1-212-713 8673
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Strategist
patrick.palfrey@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
KIJ
Associate Strategist
will.jackson@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
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Associate Strategist
nicholas.samoyedny@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
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US Equity Strategy UBS Research
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Weighted Growth YoY (%)
Revenue
Margins Earnings Buybacks EPS
S&P 500 3.4 4.2 7.5 1.6 9.1
Cyclicals -2.0 -7.9 -10.0 2.2 -7.8
Energy -9.9 -14.9 -24.9 3.1 -21.7
Materials -5.9 -15.2 -21.1 0.7 -20.4
Industrials 2.9 2.3 5.2 1.5 6.8
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 1.7 -3.4 -1.6 1.7 0.1
TECH+ 10.1 28.1 38.2 1.7 39.9
Technology 7.1 13.2 20.3 0.9 21.2
Internet Retail 13.6 375.1 388.7 N.A. 420.7
Media & Internet 16.3 93.0 109.3 3.0 112.3
Non-Cyclicals 4.3 -6.7 -2.4 0.6 -1.8
Staples 2.5 2.5 5.0 0.2 5.1
Health Care 7.0 -19.2 -12.1 1.4 -10.7
Utilities -0.8 20.0 19.1 -2.8 16.4
REITs 6.4 -3.4 3.0 -3.5 -0.5
Telecos 0.9 -8.8 -7.9 0.8 -7.2
Financials 5.0 3.6 8.6 2.0 10.6
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Blend of actuals where available and estimates
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Surprise (%)
Rptd Total Revenue Margins Earnings
S&P 500 334 500 1.2 5.9 7.1
Cyclicals 120 176 1.3 8.6 9.9
Energy 11 23 -0.7 14.6 13.9
Materials 19 28 0.1 4.5 4.6
Industrials 61 78 1.8 7.6 9.4
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 29 47 3.3 4.0 7.3
TECH+ 49 76 1.4 4.9 6.4
Technology 41 64 1.0 4.4 5.4
Internet Retail 2 6 2.2 21.3 23.5
Media & Internet 6 6 1.7 3.4 5.1
Non-Cyclicals 101 176 1.5 4.6 6.2
Staples 23 38 0.3 5.5 5.8
Health Care 45 64 3.0 5.8 8.8
Utilities 8 30 -19.2 21.1 2.0
REITs 15 31 -1.0 1.3 0.2
Telcos 3 3 1.9 -4.3 -2.4
Financials 64 72 -0.2 6.7 6.4
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%
"$H$ 12 February 2024 ab 3
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Current Historical Average
% %
Beats Hits/Misses Beats Hits/Misses
Beats
1.4 -0.5 0.7
Beats
1.7 -1.4 0.9
Hits/Misses
-0.7 -4.3 -2.5
Hits/Misses
-0.3 -3.1 -2.4
1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.5
Revenue Surprises
EPS Surprises
Revenue Surprises
EPS Surprises
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price
performance -1 to +1 days
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Price Action (%)
EPS Beat with EPS Miss with
Overall Rev Beat Rev Miss Rev Beat Rev Miss
S&P 500 -0.2 1.4 -0.5 -0.7 -4.3
Cyclicals 0.1 3.0 -0.7 -0.3 -7.0
Energy 1.3 2.4 1.3 NA -3.2
Materials -0.2 3.2 1.1 -1.0 -11.4
Industrials 0.0 2.2 -0.9 2.1 -7.9
-0.1 5.5 -2.1 -5.2 -4.1
TECH+ 0.4 1.1 -2.8 4.3 -0.2
Technology 0.3 1.1 -2.8 2.4 1.1
Internet Retail -3.7 -3.7 NA NA NA
2.9 4.7 NA 1.2 NA
Non-Cyclicals -0.6 0.4 0.3 -1.3 -3.8
Staples 0.2 1.9 0.3 -2.7 -1.7
Health Care -0.5 0.2 -1.6 -1.5 -6.2
Utilities -0.6 2.8 -0.9 NA -2.4
REITs -1.0 0.8 NA -1.8 -0.9
Telcos 1.0 NA NA 1.0 NA
Financials -0.5 0.2 0.2 -2.7 -2.6
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price
performance -1 to +1 days
摘要：

abUSEquityStrategyEarningsBrief4Q23:Feb1277.7%oftheS&P500'smarketcaphasreported.4Qexpectationsareforrevenuestogrow3.4%andEPSby9.1%.Growthamonggroupsvariessignificantly,asshowninthetablebelow(ablendofreportedresultsandconsensusestimatesforunreporte...

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