UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _Earnings Brief 4Q23 Feb 09_ Golub-106439071
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US Equity Strategy
Earnings Brief 4Q23: Feb 09
Quarterly analyst projections tend to follow a typical pattern: they begin too
optimistically, decline as companies pre-announce, only to be topped by positive
surprises. While 4Q EPS revisions are 520 bps weaker than normal, 1Q and 2024
estimates are running 50 and 340 bps above their respective trends.
77.1% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 4Q expectations are for revenues to
grow 3.4% and EPS by 9.1%. Growth among groups varies significantly, as shown in the
table below (a blend of reported results and consensus estimates for unreported
companies):
Group EPS Growth (%)
TECH+ 39.9
Financials 10.6
Non-Cyclical ex Health Care 6.7
Industrials & Disc ex Internet Retail 4.0
Health Care -10.6
Energy & Materials -21.4
Earnings are beating estimates by 7.2% in aggregate, with 72% of companies topping
projections. EPS is on pace for 10.8%, assuming the current beat rate for the rest of this
season.
Firms beating on both revenues and EPS are outperforming the market by 1.7% vs. a
historical average of 1.7%, while ones missing on both are underperforming by -4.2%
vs. -3.1%.
Over the next 5 trading days, 62 companies representing 6.2% of the S&P 500's market
cap will report results, including Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Marriott International, Cisco
Systems, Kraft Heinz, and Deere.
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. !"#$ "" !$%&'()*+&',
&'-./012&.'.'234#*1'2&212&544641/(345&478*9)&634+9:$;%94,&'.'81,4<= UBS does and seeks to do
business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
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Americas
A?
Strategist
jonathan.golub@ubs.com
+1-212-713 8673
B?CBD
Strategist
patrick.palfrey@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
EAC
Associate Strategist
will.jackson@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
F
Associate Strategist
nicholas.samoyedny@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
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Historical Trend
2024
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Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
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US Equity Strategy UBS Research
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Weighted Growth YoY (%)
Revenue
Margins Earnings Buybacks EPS
S&P 500 3.4 4.1 7.5 1.6 9.1
Cyclicals -2.0 -7.9 -10.0 2.2 -7.7
Energy -9.9 -14.9 -24.8 3.2 -21.7
Materials -5.9 -15.2 -21.1 0.7 -20.4
Industrials 2.9 2.3 5.2 1.5 6.8
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 1.7 -3.4 -1.6 1.7 0.1
TECH+ 10.1 28.1 38.2 1.7 39.9
Technology 7.1 13.2 20.3 0.9 21.2
Internet Retail 13.6 375.1 388.7 N.A. 420.7
Media & Internet 16.3 93.0 109.3 3.0 112.3
Non-Cyclicals 4.5 -6.9 -2.4 0.6 -1.8
Staples 2.6 2.1 4.7 0.2 4.9
Health Care 7.0 -19.1 -12.1 1.4 -10.6
Utilities 0.6 18.5 19.1 -2.8 16.3
REITs 6.3 -3.4 3.0 -3.5 -0.5
Telecos 0.9 -8.8 -7.9 0.8 -7.2
Financials 5.0 3.6 8.6 2.0 10.6
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Blend of actuals where available and estimates
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Surprise (%)
Rptd Total Revenue Margins Earnings
S&P 500 332 500 1.3 5.9 7.2
Cyclicals 120 176 1.3 8.6 9.9
Energy 11 23 -0.7 14.6 13.9
Materials 19 28 0.1 4.5 4.6
Industrials 61 78 1.8 7.6 9.4
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 29 47 3.3 4.0 7.3
TECH+ 49 76 1.4 4.9 6.4
Technology 41 64 1.0 4.4 5.4
Internet Retail 2 6 2.2 21.3 23.5
Media & Internet 6 6 1.7 3.4 5.1
Non-Cyclicals 99 176 1.7 4.6 6.3
Staples 22 38 0.6 5.5 6.1
Health Care 44 64 3.1 5.9 8.9
Utilities 8 30 -15.4 17.4 2.0
REITs 15 31 -1.0 1.2 0.1
Telcos 3 3 1.9 -4.3 -2.4
Financials 64 72 -0.2 6.7 6.4
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%
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作者：梧桐
分类：外资研报
价格：免费
属性：17 页
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格式：PDF
时间：2024-03-02
