UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _Earnings Brief 4Q23 Feb 08_ Golub-106418996

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3.0 梧桐 2024-03-02 27 734.32KB 16 页 免费
侵权投诉
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US Equity Strategy
Earnings Brief 4Q23: Feb 08
The dispersion in recent results has been particularly large. While 4Q revisions are much
worse than the long-term trend, 2024 is much stronger.
74.2% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 4Q expectations are for revenues to
grow 3.5% and EPS by 9.0%. Growth among groups varies significantly. The table
below blends reported results with consensus estimates for unreported companies:
Group EPS Growth (%)
TECH+ 39.8
Financials 10.6
Non-Cyclical ex Health Care 6.7
Industrials & Disc ex Internet Retail 3.8
Health Care -10.7
Energy & Materials -22.1
Earnings are beating estimates by 7.3% in aggregate, with 72% of companies topping
projections. EPS is on pace for 10.9%, assuming the current aggregate beat rate of
7.3% for the rest of this season.
Firms beating on both revenues and EPS are outperforming the market by 1.9% vs. an
average of 1.7%, while ones missing on both are underperforming by -4.4% vs. -3.1%.
Over the next 5 trading days, 62 companies representing 6.6% of S&P 500’s market cap
will report results, including Pepsi, Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Marriott International, Cisco
Systems, Kraft Heinz, and Deere.
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-1.5
-2.0
-0.2
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Historical Trend
1Q24
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Historical trend based on estimates from 1Q11-4Q19
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. *+*,&-)-..)*-./+*+0 $.00.&)/&$&1234567238
239:;<=>2:3:3>?@ 6=3>2>=>2A@@B@=;4?@A2@CD6E52B?@7EF$!&1E@823:3D=8@GH UBS does and seeks to do
business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
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Americas
J
Strategist
jonathan.golub@ubs.com
+1-212-713 8673
K
Strategist
patrick.palfrey@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
LJK
Associate Strategist
will.jackson@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
+&"
Associate Strategist
nicholas.samoyedny@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
$&I& 8 February 2024 ab 2
US Equity Strategy UBS Research
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Weighted Growth YoY (%)
Revenue
Margins Earnings Buybacks EPS
S&P 500 3.5 3.8 7.4 1.6 9.0
Cyclicals -2.0 -8.4 -10.4 2.2 -8.2
Energy -9.8 -15.9 -25.7 3.1 -22.6
Materials -5.9 -15.2 -21.0 0.7 -20.3
Industrials 2.8 2.2 5.0 1.5 6.5
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 1.7 -3.6 -1.9 1.7 -0.2
TECH+ 10.1 28.1 38.2 1.7 39.8
Technology 7.0 13.2 20.2 0.9 21.1
Internet Retail 13.6 374.9 388.5 N.A. 420.5
Media & Internet 16.2 93.1 109.3 3.0 112.3
Non-Cyclicals 4.7 -7.2 -2.5 0.6 -1.8
Staples 2.6 2.3 4.9 0.2 5.1
Health Care 7.0 -19.1 -12.2 1.4 -10.7
Utilities 5.0 14.1 19.1 -2.8 16.3
REITs 6.3 -3.5 2.8 -3.3 -0.5
Telecos 0.9 -8.8 -7.9 0.8 -7.2
Financials 5.0 3.6 8.6 2.0 10.6
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Blend of actuals where available and estimates
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Surprise (%)
Rptd Total Revenue Margins Earnings
S&P 500 301 500 1.5 5.8 7.3
Cyclicals 112 176 1.3 8.3 9.7
Energy 10 23 -0.5 14.1 13.6
Materials 19 28 0.1 4.5 4.6
Industrials 58 78 1.8 7.6 9.4
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 25 47 3.5 3.8 7.3
TECH+ 45 76 1.4 4.9 6.4
Technology 39 64 1.0 4.3 5.4
Internet Retail 1 6 2.3 21.9 24.2
Media & Internet 5 6 1.6 3.5 5.2
Non-Cyclicals 83 176 2.2 4.6 6.8
Staples 18 38 0.7 7.3 8.0
Health Care 39 64 3.1 6.0 9.0
Utilities 5 30 -8.6 12.2 3.6
REITs 12 31 -1.3 1.4 0.1
Telcos 3 3 1.9 -4.3 -2.4
Financials 61 72 -0.2 6.8 6.6
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%
$&I& 8 February 2024 ab 3
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Current Historical Average
% %
Beats Hits/Misses Beats Hits/Misses
Beats
1.9 -0.3 0.9
Beats
1.7 -1.4 0.9
Hits/Misses
-0.6 -4.4 -2.3
Hits/Misses
-0.3 -3.1 -2.4
1.2 -1.6 1.1 -1.5
Revenue Surprises
EPS Surprises
Revenue Surprises
EPS Surprises
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price
performance -1 to +1 days
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Price Action (%)
EPS Beat with EPS Miss with
Overall Rev Beat Rev Miss Rev Beat Rev Miss
S&P 500 0.0 1.8 -0.3 -0.5 -5.2
Cyclicals -0.1 2.4 -0.2 -0.5 -7.5
Energy 1.6 2.4 1.9 NA -3.2
Materials -0.3 3.3 -2.0 -1.0 -11.4
Industrials 0.0 2.1 0.8 2.2 -7.9
-1.0 2.9 -2.0 -5.2 -3.7
TECH+ 0.3 1.2 -2.8 4.3 -3.3
Technology -0.6 0.2 -2.8 2.4 -4.4
Internet Retail 8.4 8.4 NA NA NA
5.4 4.7 NA 6.4 NA
Non-Cyclicals 0.3 1.9 0.6 -1.6 -4.2
Staples 1.4 2.4 1.8 -2.3 -1.7
Health Care 0.4 1.4 -1.6 -2.5 -8.5
Utilities -0.2 2.1 -0.9 NA -1.3
REITs -0.2 3.0 NA -2.2 -0.7
Telcos 1.0 NA NA 1.0 NA
Financials -0.2 0.8 -0.2 -2.2 -2.0
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price
performance -1 to +1 days
摘要：

abUSEquityStrategyEarningsBrief4Q23:Feb08Thedispersioninrecentresultshasbeenparticularlylarge.While4Qrevisionsaremuchworsethanthelong-termtrend,2024ismuchstronger.74.2%oftheS&P500'smarketcaphasreported.4Qexpectationsareforrevenuestogrow3.5%andEPSby...

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