UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _Earnings Brief 4Q23 Feb 07_ Golub-106394968
免费
ab
US Equity Strategy
Earnings Brief 4Q23: Feb 07
When we published our 4Q23 Earnings Season preview on January 10, consensus
expectations for YoY EPS growth stood at just 4.3%. With 71.7% of companies having
reported, the bottom-line is currently forecast to grow 8.4%. Assuming a continuation
of the current beat rate, the final result is on pace for 10.3%.
The dispersion in recent results has been particularly large. While 4Q revisions are much
worse than the long-term trend, 2024 is much stronger.
Growth among groups varies significantly. The table below blends reported results with
consensus estimates for unreported companies:
Group EPS Growth (%)
TECH+ 39.8
Financials 9.9
Non-Cyclical ex Health Care 5.7
Industrials & Disc ex Internet Retail 1.9
Health Care -11.1
Energy & Materials -22.1
Earnings are beating estimates by 6.8% in aggregate, with 71% of companies topping
projections. EPS is on pace for 10.3%, assuming the current aggregate beat rate of
6.8% for the rest of this season.
Firms beating on both revenues and EPS are outperforming the market by 1.8% vs. an
average of 1.7%, while ones missing on both are underperforming by -5.2% vs. -3.1%.
Over the next 5 trading days, 78 companies representing 8% of S&P 500’s market cap
will report results, including S&P Global, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, Airbnb, and Cisco Systems.
3.3
3.4 6.8
1.6 8.4
Revenue Margins Earnings Buybacks EPS
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Blend of actuals where available and estimates
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. !"!#$%&%''&!%'("!") *'))'$&($*$+,-./01,-2
,-345678,4-4-89:07-8,878,;::<:75.9:;,:=>0?/,<9:1?@*A$+?:2,-4->72:B UBS does and seeks to do
business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
C $
Americas
D
Strategist
jonathan.golub@ubs.com
+1-212-713 8673
E FEG
Strategist
patrick.palfrey@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
HDF
Associate Strategist
will.jackson@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
"$I
Associate Strategist
nicholas.samoyedny@ubs.com
+1-212-713-2000
*$C $ 7 February 2024 ab 2
US Equity Strategy UBS Research
$JEK
)L$JEK
Weighted Growth YoY (%)
Revenue
Margins Earnings Buybacks EPS
S&P 500 3.3 3.4 6.8 1.6 8.4
Cyclicals -2.1 -9.3 -11.4 2.2 -9.2
Energy -9.8 -15.9 -25.7 3.1 -22.6
Materials -5.9 -15.2 -21.1 0.7 -20.4
Industrials 2.7 -0.7 2.0 1.5 3.5
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 1.7 -3.9 -2.1 1.7 -0.4
TECH+ 10.1 28.0 38.1 1.7 39.8
Technology 7.1 13.1 20.2 0.9 21.1
Internet Retail 13.6 374.9 388.5 N.A. 420.5
Media & Internet 16.2 93.1 109.3 3.0 112.3
Non-Cyclicals 4.2 -7.4 -3.2 0.6 -2.5
Staples 2.7 1.8 4.4 0.2 4.6
Health Care 6.0 -18.6 -12.6 1.4 -11.1
Utilities 5.0 14.1 19.1 -2.8 16.3
REITs 6.1 -3.3 2.8 -3.3 -0.5
Telecos 0.9 -8.8 -7.9 0.8 -7.2
Financials 5.1 2.9 8.0 2.0 9.9
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Blend of actuals where available and estimates
$M)L$JEK
Surprise (%)
Rptd Total Revenue Margins Earnings
S&P 500 276 500 1.4 5.4 6.8
Cyclicals 103 176 1.3 7.0 8.4
Energy 10 23 -0.5 14.1 13.6
Materials 19 28 0.1 4.6 4.7
Industrials 53 78 1.8 4.3 6.1
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail 21 47 3.7 3.9 7.6
TECH+ 43 76 1.5 4.9 6.4
Technology 37 64 1.2 4.3 5.4
Internet Retail 1 6 2.3 21.9 24.2
Media & Internet 5 6 1.6 3.5 5.2
Non-Cyclicals 74 176 1.9 4.3 6.2
Staples 17 38 0.8 6.5 7.3
Health Care 35 64 2.8 6.5 9.3
Utilities 5 30 -8.6 12.2 3.6
REITs 11 31 -1.4 1.5 0.1
Telcos 3 3 1.9 -4.3 -2.4
Financials 56 72 -0.2 6.5 6.3
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%
*$C $ 7 February 2024 ab 3
E!
$JEKE!
Current Historical Average
% %
Beats Hits/Misses Beats Hits/Misses
Beats
1.8 -0.3 1.0
Beats
1.7 -1.4 0.9
Hits/Misses
-0.5 -5.2 -2.5
Hits/Misses
-0.3 -3.1 -2.4
1.3 -1.7 1.1 -1.5
Revenue Surprises
EPS Surprises
Revenue Surprises
EPS Surprises
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price
performance -1 to +1 days
K$JEKE! %
Price Action (%)
EPS Beat with EPS Miss with
Overall Rev Beat Rev Miss Rev Beat Rev Miss
S&P 500 0.0 1.8 -0.3 -0.5 -5.2
Cyclicals -0.1 2.4 -0.2 -0.5 -7.5
Energy 1.6 2.4 1.9 NA -3.2
Materials -0.3 3.3 -2.0 -1.0 -11.4
Industrials 0.0 2.1 0.8 2.2 -7.9
Discretionary ex-Internet Retail
-1.0 2.9 -2.0 -5.2 -3.7
TECH+ 0.3 1.2 -2.8 4.3 -3.3
Technology -0.6 0.2 -2.8 2.4 -4.4
Internet Retail 8.4 8.4 NA NA NA
Internet Svcs & Entertainment
5.4 4.7 NA 6.4 NA
Non-Cyclicals 0.3 1.9 0.6 -1.6 -4.2
Staples 1.4 2.4 1.8 -2.3 -1.7
Health Care 0.4 1.4 -1.6 -2.5 -8.5
Utilities -0.2 2.1 -0.9 NA -1.3
REITs -0.2 3.0 NA -2.2 -0.7
Telcos 1.0 NA NA 1.0 NA
Financials -0.2 0.8 -0.2 -2.2 -2.0
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS
Note: Surprised calculated based on revenue beat/miss by +/- 0.25%, earnings beat/miss by +/- 1%. Price
performance -1 to +1 days
摘要：
展开>>
收起<<
abUSEquityStrategyEarningsBrief4Q23:Feb07Whenwepublishedour4Q23EarningsSeasonpreviewonJanuary10,consensusexpectationsforYoYEPSgrowthstoodatjust4.3%.With71.7%ofcompanieshavingreported,thebottom-lineiscurrentlyforecasttogrow8.4%.Assumingacontinuationofthe...
相关推荐
-
太平洋证券-金融行业各个子行业研究方法与框架全景-240703-74页VIP专享
2024-07-09 189 -
109页PPT看懂2024视频号利润区在哪-混沌学园-2024.6.21-109页VIP专享
2024-07-13 66 -
华泰证券-战略专题研究：最新的共和党党纲有哪些看点？-240713VIP专享
2024-07-14 52 -
桃园三章 周泉-用户运营方法论-社群转化率40%、复购率45%，揭秘桃园三章的私域运营VIP专享
2024-08-04 43 -
国泰君安-“新质生产力”成长投资系列八：中国科技产业链估值：跨国比较与中国实践-240809-40页VIP专享
2024-08-10 68 -
中国看世界(1)：降息交易的历史答案-240828-中信建投-17页VIP专享
2024-09-09 106 -
蚂蚁集团研究院-IDC-上海财经大学-2024年共享善治AI智绘未来金融白皮书-240911-74页VIP专享
2024-09-12 65 -
长江证券-大财政系列8：日本150年财政四部曲之一，内治与外征-240704-34页VIP专享
2024-09-18 74 -
长江证券-大财政系列9：日本150年财政四部曲之二，化债与繁荣-240801-28页VIP专享
2024-09-18 47 -
上交所期权大讲堂2024.7-60页VIP专免
2024-10-05 161
作者：梧桐
分类：外资研报
价格：免费
属性：16 页
大小：734.72KB
格式：PDF
时间：2024-03-02
