APPENDIX 1
Summary
Event
On March 18, local time in the United States, Tesla comprehensively rolled out the FSD V12.3 version in North America. On March
30, the FSD V12.3.3 was released, marking the first time FSD was unlabelled as Beta, changing its suffix to Supervised for official
public testing, and opened to at least 2 million Tesla owners in the United States for a month of free trial. FSD V12.3 made bold
innovations at the algorithmic level, completely replacing the previous reliance on manually coded rules and machine learning
models with an "end-to-end neural network" AI system. We have continued to track the real road tests of several overseas social
media influencers and are amazed that the V12.3 version can make decisions and execute actions that are close to or even surpass
human drivers in handling most complex road conditions, offering a very high smoothness and less intervention in over 90% of
driving situations.
What sets FSD V12.3 apart from the previous Beta version?
1) Smooth and error-free handling of daily complex scenarios;
2) Increasingly understanding humans;
3) Initial experience of L4-level advanced driving features;
4) Significantly increased software iteration speed.
With the imminent release of Robotaxi, how far is Tesla's smart driving from the ChatGPT moment? On April 5, Tesla announced
that Robotaxi would be launched on August 8 and pointed out that the production plan for the entry-level model (Model 2/Q)
would not be canceled. The entry-level model platform planned by Tesla is also suitable for producing Model 2/Q and Robotaxi.
We believe that Tesla needs both the debut of Robotaxi to open up more imaginative space for the Company's valuation and the
mass production of Model 2/Q to cope with the weak auto demand in Europe and America and the intensifying competition in the
Chinese NEV market. Currently, the buyout prices of FSD in the United States and Canada are US$12,000 and CAD16,000,
respectively, while the US FSD subscription fee is US$199/month. After the launch of Robotaxi, Tesla can form an autonomous taxi
fleet, potentially bringing more flexible FSD charging schemes to rapidly increase the company's recurring income. We predict that
the steady-state gross margin of the FSD software business can reach over 70%, which is key for Tesla, which has been under
continuous pressure on per-vehicle profits recently. We believe the company will fully accelerate the mass production of
Robotaxi's hardware and software from 4Q24 and promote FSD to enter global mainstream markets, including Europe and China,
to usher in Tesla's smart driving ChatGPT moment.
Subsequent versions and the benchmark effect of Robotaxi are expected to bring a penetration inflection point to FSD, driving
explosive growth in software revenue. According to the Tesla software tracking website TeslaFi.com, FSD V12.3.3 (Supervised) is
currently the version with the highest installation rate among vehicles participating in the FSD public test. As of April 8 US time,
among its paying users' registered 19,868 Tesla vehicles, 5,722 have installed the V12.3.3, with about 30% of the vehicles updated
to the latest version. Looking at the overall users, due to several delays in the full autonomy feature rollout and price increases,
the North American new car FSD take rate has slid from a 2019 level of 50% to about 10% now. We believe that the FSD V12
version has proven the new model's strong generalization ability. With the acceleration of algorithm iteration, the launch of
Robotaxi in August can provide a performance endorsement for passenger car users to pay, likely reversing the downward trend
of the new car FSD take rate this year and even driving old users to upgrade, with related software services possibly achieving
double growth.
Risks: FSD iteration is not as expected; new platform and model mass production are not as expected; increased competition risk;
economic downturn.