中东和中亚经济展望-63页

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MIDDLE EAST AND

CENTRAL ASIA

REGIONAL

ECONOMIC

OUTLOOK

Building Resilience and

Fostering Sustainable Growth

2023

OCT

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

IMF Library

Names: International Monetary Fund, publisher.

Title: Regional economic outlook. Middle East and Central Asia : building resilience and fostering sustain-

able growth.

Other titles: Middle East and Central Asia : building resilience and fostering sustainable growth. | Middle East

and Central Asia. | Building resilience and fostering sustainable growth. | World economic and ﬁnancial

surveys. | Regional economic outlook: Middle East and Central Asia.

Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2023. | World economic and ﬁnancial surveys. |

Oct. 2023. | Includes bibliographical references.

Identiﬁers: ISBN:

9798400254222 (paper)

9798400254307 (ePub)

9798400254260 (Web PDF)

Subjects: LCSH: Economic forecasting—Middle East. | Economic forecasting –Asia, Central. | Economic devel-

opment—Middle East. | Economic development—Asia, Central. | Middle East—Economic conditions. | Asia,

Central—Economic conditions.

Classiﬁcation: LCC HC415.15.A1 R44 2023

The Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia is published twice a year, in the spring and

fall, to review developments in the Middle East and Central Asia. Both projections and policy consider-

ations are those of the IMF sta and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,

or IMFManagement.

Publication orders may be placed online or through the mail:

International Monetary Fund, Publication Services

P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.

T. +(1) 202.623.7430

F. +(1) 202.623.7201

publications@IMF.org

IMFbookstore.org

elibrary.IMF.org

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK—Middle East and Central Asia

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND • October 2023

Contents

Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................... v

Country Groupings ..................................................................................................... vi

Assumptions and Conventions ....................................................................................... viii

Executive Summary .................................................................................................... ix

1. Regional Developments and Economic Outlook: Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth ..1

1.1. A Global Slowdown amid Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates… ................................................1

1.2. MENA Region and Pakistan: A Complex Road Ahead… ......................................................2

1.3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Growth Momentum Remains ....................................................8

1.4. Risks to the ME&CA Outlook ...................................................................................11

1.5. Policies: Building Resilience while Safeguarding Macro Stability ........................................... 12

References ........................................................................................................... 15

2. From Setbacks to Comebacks: Reforms to Build Resilience and Prosperity .................................. 18

2.1. Narrowing Policy Space Ampliﬁes the Urgency of Implementing Reforms ................................ 18

2.2. Implementing Structural Reforms Can Lift Growth Signiﬁcantly ........................................... 22

2.3. Attention to Sequencing and Packaging Reforms Is Valuable .............................................. 27

2.4. Where Macro Policies Need to Tighten, Reforms Provide Growth-Enhancing Options .................. 28

References ........................................................................................................... 30

3. Higher for Longer: What Are the Macroﬁnancial Risks? ......................................................... 34

3.1. Higher Global Interest Rates Could Expose Fault Lines among Banks ..................................... 34

3.2. Certain Factors Could Exacerbate Financial Stability Risks ................................................. 35

3.3. Higher-for-Longer Could Hold Back Growth in an Adverse Scenario ...................................... 36

References ........................................................................................................... 44

BOXES

1.1. The Conﬂict in Sudan: Migration Consequences for North Africa ............................................. 16

1.2. Changing Trade Patterns in the Caucasus and Central Asia ................................................... 17

2.1. Transformative Tales: Structural Reforms in Georgia, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia ........................... 32

3.1. Banking Sector Stress Test for the Caucasus and Central Asia ................................................. 46

FIGURES

Figure 1.1. MENA Region: Real GDP Growth ........................................................................... 2

Figure 1.2. MENA Region EM&MIs and Pakistan: Headline Inﬂation .................................................3

Figure 1.3. International Bond Issuance in 2023 .......................................................................4

Figure 1.4. MENA Region EM&MIs and Pakistan: Share of Bank Credit by Sector ..................................4

Figure 1.5. MENA Region EM&MIs and Pakistan: Net Cumulative Portfolio Inﬂows ................................5

Figure 1.6. Growth Projections .......................................................................................... 6

Contents

October 2023 • INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

iii

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