全球发展中心-中东和北非与全球能源联盟（英）-2023.1-23页

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Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is addicted to fossil fuels but so is the rest of the

world economy. Solutions to the energy transition have thus to be found in a coordinated

global shift in both the supply and demand for fossil fuels and clean(er) energy, where



international technology transfers to MENA, as well as scale up investment and trade in



solar power, the region could remain a global hub, this time for clean energy.

MENA and the Global Energy

Conundrum

RABAH AREZKI · ADNAN MAZAREI

POLICY PAPER 283 • JANUARY 2023

The Center for Global Development works to reduce global

poverty and improve lives through innovative economic

research that drives better policy and practice by the world’s

top decision makers. Use and dissemination of this Policy Paper

is encouraged; however, reproduced copies may not be used

for commercial purposes. Further usage is permitted under the

terms of the Creative Commons License.

The views expressed in CGD Policy Papers are those of the

authors and should not be attributed to the board of directors,

funders of the Center for Global Development, or the authors’

respective organizations.

CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

2055 L Street, NW Fifth Floor

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www.cgdev.org

Center for Global Development. 2023.

MENA and the Global Energy Conundrum

Rabah Arezki

Harvard Kennedy School

Adnan Mazarei

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Rabah Arezki is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. Previously he was chief economist and vice president

at the African Development Bank, chief economist at the World Bank’s MENA region, and chief of the Commodities

Unit at the International Monetary Fund.

Adnan Mazarei is a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Previously he

was a deputy director at the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund. Much of

his work on this paper was done when he was academic visitor, St. Antony’s College, Oxford University.

The authors are grateful to, Steven Fries, Victoria Perry, Mark Plant, Nasser Saidi, and two anonymous referees for

discussions and comments.



https://www.cgdev.org/publication/mena-and-global-

energy-conundrum

Contents

Preface ....................................................................................................................................................1

I. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................2

II. The setting .......................................................................................................................................4

MENA countries have dierent energy resource endowments ............................4

MENA may be amid its last oil price super-cycle .......................................................6

The energy transition will inevitably leave MENA with stranded

hydrocarbon reserves............................................................................................................ 7

Fuel subsidy reform as a political bombshell ...............................................................8

MENA is slow in realizing its considerable potential in renewable

energy ....................................................................................................................................... 10

Energy transition will require large ﬁnancing............................................................ 12

III. Needed: A new mode of governance ............................................................................... 13

IV. The role of multilateral institutions .................................................................................... 13

V. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................16

References .......................................................................................................................................... 17

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摘要：

AbstractTheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)isaddictedtofossilfuelsbutsoistherestoftheworldeconomy.Solutionstotheenergytransitionhavethustobefoundinacoordinatedglobalshiftinboththesupplyanddemandforfossilfuelsandclean(er)energy,where...

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