BCG+下一波数字货币的风险管理-16页

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Managing Risk for the

Next Wave of Digital

Currencies

July 2023

By Bernhard Kronfellner, Steven Alexander Kok, James Mackintosh, and Christian N. Schmid (BCG);

Mike Balestrino (B Capital); and Samir Ghosh (FalconX)

01 MANAGING RISK FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF DIGITAL CURRENCIES

Managing Risk for the Next Wave of

Digital Currencies

(For an overview of what led to the crypto winter, and of

where things stand now, see the sidebar “DeFi Summer,

Crypto Winter, and the Future.”) Recent actions by the US

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have further

ensured that the risks of digital currency will be top of

mind for investors for some time to come.

At the same time, digital currencies are here to stay. Their

primary function—to hold and transfer value without a

central authority validating and processing transactions—

will continue to be attractive to investors and other nan-

cial services customers. In addition, the rapid pace of

innovation continues. Financial institutions have a duty to

provide the same level of asset-specic oerings, capabili-

ties, and guardrails that they do with other comparable

asset classes.

This presents nancial institutions with a series of strategic

challenges. Chief risk ocers (CROs) should be asking two

questions. First, what are the most important new risks

associated with digital currencies? Second, how to best

manage those risks? For both these questions, nancial

institutions need to pay attention to the factors unique to

digital currencies—requiring new practices, methods, and

ways of thinking.

In this article, we aim to describe the risks that come with

supporting and oering digital currencies, as well as appro-

priate tools and methods to mitigate them. As long as

clients demand access to digital currencies, from basic

ones to stablecoins and even central bank digital curren-

cies (CBDCs), these risk-mitigation tools should become

part of the operating model of most banks and nancial

services organizations.

Risks Associated with Digital Currencies

While digital currencies are available in a variety of forms

and avors (see the sidebar “A Guide to Digital-Currency

Products and Services”), they can all be assessed against

common risk categories relevant to nancial institutions.

Exhibit 1 shows these categories arranged roughly in order

of the source of risk—from broad market forces to particu-

lar actors in the digital-currency ecosystem to gaps in the

nancial institution’s own range of capabilities.

The digital-currency marketplace has been in turmoil since the current

“crypto winter” began in mid-2022. Holdings have been breached,

fraudulent and illicit schemes have been revealed, and digital-currency

oerings have lost value, making the risks more evident.

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP + B CAPITAL + FALCONX 02

Many investors acquired digital-currency holdings during

the steep upswing of “DeFi summer,” which began in

August 2020. As the COVID-19 pandemic surged, so did the

value of decentralized nance (DeFi) oerings. (See the

exhibit.) Like many speculative investors before them,

some asset managers made digital-currency-related bets

without fundamental risk-management practices in place.

DeFi summer ended in November 2021. Later came the

collapse of the stablecoin Terra in May 2022, followed in

June by the bankruptcy of the Singapore-based hedge fund

Three Arrows Capital. Then came further interest rate

hikes from the Federal Reserve and the FTX bankruptcy.

Each time, the risks became clearer, and more investors

pulled back. By May 2022, the current crypto winter was

fully underway, marked by a steep drop in values. (The

term “crypto winter” makes reference to “Winter is com-

ing,” the motto of one of the warring houses in the TV

series Game of Thrones. The motto refers not only to the

harshness of winters in the house’s continent but also to

the inevitability of dicult times.)

The digital-asset economy is now in a period of regrouping.

Analysis indicates a high level of research and develop-

ment, mostly taking place quietly within innovative compa-

nies. As in all bear markets, this is when casual investors

and substandard players depart, and digital-asset develop-

ers prepare their next wave of oerings.

Developing a risk strategy for digital currencies, including

those you already own or oversee, does not mean ignoring

the downturn. It does, however, mean continuing to serve

customer needs, balancing the value of exposure in digital

currencies against the risks and necessary precautions.

DeFi Summer, Crypto Winter, and the Future

Sources: Data Statista; CoinMarketCap; BCG analysis.

Exhibit - Crypto Market Prices vs. Developer Activity, 2014-2023

800k

Bitcoin (in $)

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000

70,000

Bitcoin (in $)

Jan. 2014 Jan. 2015 Jan. 2016 Jan. 2017

Developer activity

Jan. 2018 Jan. 2019

Terra collapse

May 2022

Three Arrows

Capital bankruptcy

June 2022

FTX collapse

Nov. 2022

DeFi summer

Aug. 2020–Nov 2021

May 2022

Crypto winter

May 2022–?

Jan. 2020 Jan. 2021 Jan. 2022 Jan. 2023

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ManagingRiskfortheNextWaveofDigitalCurrenciesJuly2023ByBernhardKronfellner,StevenAlexanderKok,JamesMackintosh,andChristianN.Schmid(BCG);MikeBalestrino(BCapital);andSamirGhosh(FalconX)01MANAGINGRISKFORTHENEXTWAVEOFDIGITALCURRENCIESManagingRiskfortheNextWaveofDigitalCurrencies(Foranoverviewofwhatledto...

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