IEF-上游石油和天然气投资展望（英）-2024.5-20页

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侵权投诉

Upstream

Oil and Gas

Investment Outlook

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A report by the International Energy Forum and S&P Global

Commodity Insights

June 2024

____________________________________________________________________________

Written and produced by:

Allyson Cutright allyson.cutright@ief.org

Roger Diwan roger.diwan@spglobal.com

Karim Fawaz karim.fawaz@spglobal.com

____________________________________________________________________________

About the International Energy Forum

The International Energy Forum (IEF) is the world's largest international organization of

energy ministers from 73 countries and includes both producing and consuming nations. The

IEF has a broad mandate to examine all energy issues including oil and gas, clean and

renewable energy, sustainability, energy transitions and new technologies, data

transparency, and energy access. Through the Forum and its associated events, officials,

industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to

global energy security and sustainability.

____________________________________________________________________________

About S&P Global Commodity Insights

For more than 100 years, S&P Global has been a trusted connector that brings together

thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators to co-create solutions that

lead to progress. Vital to navigating Energy Transition, S&P Global Commodity Insights

coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, and shipping. S&P

Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global, the world's foremost provider of credit

ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and

automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading

organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today.

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ................................................................................................. 4

Introduction: An Era of (Relative) Stability or Calm Between Storms? ............... 5

Oil and Gas Upstream Capex Rises to Decade High in 2024 ............................... 5

Upstream investment expanded by 12% in 2023 and is expected to grow by 5% in 2024 . 5

North and South America account for half of the increase in capex since 2022 ................. 6

Annual Upstream Capex Needs to Rise by an Additional ~$135 Bn by 2030...... 7

Upstream investment will need to increase to $738 billion annually by 2030 to ensure

adequate supplies ............................................................................................................. 7

Global conventional crude production would fall by >20% by 2035 without additional

drilling ................................................................................................................................ 8

North America will lead in the incremental capex increase to 2030 .................................... 8

Our 2030 forecast is >$200 billion higher than estimated in 2021 ...................................... 9

Cost of production has risen, but majority of new supplies can be produced at under

$60/bbl Brent ................................................................................................................... 10

Risks of Underinvestment in this Decade Has Receded, but Not Disappeared 11

Nearly 70% of new conventional production needed for 2030 have been approved ........ 11

Record profits helped ease capital constraints ................................................................. 12

Production in Russia, Iran, and Venezuela has remained resilient despite sanctions ...... 13

Non-OPEC supplies have surprised to the upside ........................................................... 15

OPEC spare production capacity has returned ................................................................ 16

Risk of underinvestment could rise again quickly if prices retreated for an extended period

or geopolitical risks expanded to physical oil supplies ..................................................... 17

Energy Demand, Energy Security, and Energy Transitions ............................... 17

Energy security and energy transition policies will shape the future of demand, but

uncertainties abound ....................................................................................................... 17

Medium-term and long-term demand outlooks continue to diverge more wildly rather than

converge, posing a hurdle for long-term planning and investment ................................... 18

Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 19

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摘要：

UpstreamOilandGasInvestmentOutlook_____________________________________________________________________________AreportbytheInternationalEnergyForumandS&PGlobalCommodityInsightsJune2024_______________________________...

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